Trading horses correcting mistakes

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Ergunartun10
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:41 pm

Hi people im new to trading and iv been practicing for a while now and iv been doing quite well swing beting with a bank of around £2k
but occasionally a trade can go wrong and i end up trying to correct the mistake sometimes 3-4 times thinking it will eventually go my way.
there was a race not long ago at Kempton a horse named Zubayr a good jumps horse decent record on the flat was around 5.5 on the exchanges i thought this would win but it drifted to 8.8 pre off id backed it at 6.0 thinking it would move in and i ended up having to let this trade run in because i was so miffed at the drift.
in the end Zubayr ended up coming 2nd and traded at even money inplay which i cashed out on.
but im wondering how many times do people know their racing and use that kowledge to trade on horses or do people trade on weight of money and the market only even if they think that drift on that horse is wrong??????
and do people have to correct mistakes alot??
Do people find scalping easier then swing trading?
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to75ne
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Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:37 pm

trades go wrong all the time, you lay expecting the price to go out, it comes in, so you correct by scratching it. when you think you have a good idea of what the price is going to do and see a reasonable entry you go in again, get out when you think its gonna turn against you and/or scratch (correct) if you got it wrong. i always cold trade pre off ( no form etc), and i dont trade inplay at all baring a betfair feck up or of my own making.

pre off and inplay are completly different markets and need different setups etc, i personally am not suited to inplay.


edit if a jock or trainer (or combination) win 2 or 3 races, then i will take that into account as quite often any further rides / runners that card/day, often shorten up sometimnes dramatically, so i dont always cold trade just most of the time.
Ergunartun10
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:41 pm

Im trying not to let anything run inplay but that Zubayr race just annoyed me so much.
so cold trading always better.
i understand the whole scratch quickly mentality but sometimes i just leave the trade and keep an eye on it because i beleive it will go the way i want eventually based upon the race etc in most cases.
i sometimes back agin with the same stake if for existance i have backed a horse at 4.5 wanting to get 4.3 4.2 with £500 and it moves to say 4.9 5.0 i sometimes notice a resistnce point where it wont get any higher so i back it again for £500 at 5.0 but instead of me having to wait untill it hits 4.2 i can get out for a profit at 4.5-4.6 instead because of backing it again.
Another issue i have is watching the money is all well and good on both sides but nothing can control a sudden flurry of money either way quickly so maye i should be scratching early when that happens.
i tend to try and get out a few minutes before the off or when im happy with the profit of that trade.
Do you think the money matched below a price has a bearing on whether it will get backed in or not is important?
for example a horse trading at 4.0 before the off but had matched money at 2.8 at some point prior.
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to75ne
Posts: 2413
Joined: Wed Apr 22, 2009 5:37 pm

"but that Zubayr race just annoyed me so much."

that reaction as no place in trading , if you cant get rid of that way of thinking and behaving it will probably be your downfall in the long run (or be a major factor) .i suggest you look at automation to red/green out before the off, and belt and brace with excel that will help to take the emotion out of closing


"i understand the whole scratch quickly mentality but sometimes i just leave the trade and keep an eye on it because i beleive it will go the way i want eventually based upon the race etc in most cases."

i personally think you will find that the markets will not give a toss as to what you beleive, if you have no real evidence that the market will go the way you need it to go, then faith is useless,in effect you are just hoping to luck out.


"Another issue i have is watching the money is all well and good on both sides but nothing can control a sudden flurry of money either way quickly so maye i should be scratching early when that happens."

yes your right you cant predict when sudden "flurries" come, but scratching is not always the best option (other factors will come into play) as quite often the price will come back to more or less where it was before the "flurry". the more markets you trade etc, the better you will be at decideing what to do in such a scenario but, if in doubt SCRATCH. (i like that word "flurry" no bearing on this post though :) )

"i tend to try and get out a few minutes before the off or when im happy with the profit of that trade."

what is to say you would not have had a bigger green if you had traded up tp 15 seconds before the off (or red for that matter).

in general the further out from the off usually the more volatile the prices are, the closer to the off the more stable they are. to me it seems pointless getting out a few minutes before the off, the closer to off the more predictable the price moves are to read (my opinion), up to about 30 secs out, then the prices predictabilty can fade away as the people start to close out, and panic etc.

"Do you think the money matched below a price has a bearing on whether it will get backed in or not is important?
for example a horse trading at 4.0 before the off but had matched money at 2.8 at some point prior."

no/not often. trading pre off is about the here and now, and the very immidiate future, the further back in time the less important money matched at whatever price is. deal/trade in the now not the past (my opinion).
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SeaHorseRacing
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Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Ergunartun10 wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:51 am
i end up trying to correct the mistake sometimes 3-4 times thinking it will eventually go my way.
I used to do this when you make a very bad trade and you ended up placing the same trade again and again this causes substantial loses for one race.

This is compounding losses and reason why sometimes you get big losses even if your scratching trades and taking small loses. Its a habit you need to be aware of and break

Haven't really had time to read the full thread but if your pre-race trading, this usually happens because you are trading too early. If you get it wrong, take the minimal loss, wait and wait, then if your really sure place again. If its wrong take your loss and accept you've got it wrong.
The later you trade (closer to post time) the less likely you are to do this and the stronger the chance that you have got your move right.

Another habit is the desperation to trade after a loss. Regardless if your trading early or late relative to post time, I notice that taking a loss caused me to make not only the same bad decision but to make me impulsive to find another trade.
Try to teach yourself after scratching a trade and taking a loss that every decision I make now has to be an objective view and no ant emotional impulse to trade.

If you take a losing trade and there's still time for another, sit on your hands and try to stay objective.
Ergunartun10
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:41 pm

when do you guys beleive is around the best time to start trading i usually go 10 minutes before a race.
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Ergunartun10 wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 10:57 am
when do you guys beleive is around the best time to start trading i usually go 10 minutes before a race.
Totally depends. In the summer racing and bigger events, 10-8 minutes your find me active in the market.

October to March on the very weak races, a lot of the time its in the last 2/3 minutes. This time of year can get you in a lot of trouble trading 10 mins to post. Just wait for opportunities. I can go 2/3 races regularly this time of year without even placing a single trade. (This even after I have deleted a bunch of races before racing that I am not even prepared to look at)
Ergunartun10
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:41 pm

i tend to trade the favourite mostly but is there rerally much value on the longer priced horses?
iambic_pentameter
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

Ergunartun10 wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:08 am
i tend to trade the favourite mostly but is there rerally much value on the longer priced horses?
If you have an understanding of the form book, you could make some ticks pre-race backing a horse that is likely to trade lower in running i.e. before the other back to lay traders jump on it.

Whilst there traders who do very well on the longer priced horses, the danger you have is that if the price goes against you, the losses are bigger and then there may be a temptation to take it in play and we all know how that ends.

Iambic
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ShaunWhite
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Why are you using such large amounts if you're only just learning the basics?

And £500 bets with a 2k bank at your stage is ridiculous. When the internet glitches or you let one run and you lose 1/4 or 1/2 of your bank, how many week's wages will that be?

You're too busy trying to understand the markets before you've understood money management. What Max Loss stop are you using? When you know how that works you'll know that trading a 1.1 is similar to trading a 25.0 if you control your staking. The best market reader in the world will go bust without knowing how to manage their money. Don't try and run before you can walk.
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Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Ergunartun10 wrote:
Sat Jan 27, 2018 8:51 am
Hi people im new to trading and iv been practicing for a while now and iv been doing quite well swing beting with a bank of around £2k
but occasionally a trade can go wrong and i end up trying to correct the mistake sometimes 3-4 times thinking it will eventually go my way.
there was a race not long ago at Kempton a horse named Zubayr a good jumps horse decent record on the flat was around 5.5 on the exchanges i thought this would win but it drifted to 8.8 pre off id backed it at 6.0 thinking it would move in and i ended up having to let this trade run in because i was so miffed at the drift.
in the end Zubayr ended up coming 2nd and traded at even money inplay which i cashed out on.
but im wondering how many times do people know their racing and use that kowledge to trade on horses or do people trade on weight of money and the market only even if they think that drift on that horse is wrong??????
and do people have to correct mistakes alot??
Do people find scalping easier then swing trading?
There are a lot of threads on this subject in the psychology section.

If you're trading and gambling at the same time (which has a lot of complications), you have £20 on a 6.0 that you think has a 5.0 chance, the price goes out, it's fine to let the bet run only if £20 was an appropriate betting stake. Generally trading involves much larger stakes than gambling because you are just aiming for a few ticks profit. In this case you would be grossly overstaking and doomed if you allow bets to run.

One of the hardest things about trading is getting a feel for how volatile the markets will be and how far they can go for or against you, and adjusting your stakes and swings accordingly.

The best way to correct a mistake is to not make it again! You don't need to do it on the same horse/market. Some people don't like seeing red on the exchange, but you need to forget about your reds and look at your profit/loss for the day/week/month. You've got plenty of time to make up for any losses.
Ergunartun10
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:41 pm

Thanls guys some really good advice there.
I had a really good trade on a horse named Shakour last night at kempton was 6.6 20 minutes before off John Gosden trained his horses are usually suported as hes a top trainer and i thouhgt he was way to short.
and i couldnt see a drift just him moving in so i placed a £250 back bet and ended up greening up just before the off for £125 i was constantly thnking should take £40 etc but i let it run and it paid off.
Do you guys somtimes go early on trades if you genuinley believe a horse is way overpriced and is certain to move in say 20 minutes-30 minutes.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

I think most horse race traders are cold traders, that is, taking no interest in the race and just exploiting market weaknesses.

It's a big mistake to be "certain" that a horse is going to go in one direction. Experience has taught me that you can never be certain of what's going to happen in a market and over confidences leads to overstaking which in turn leads to disaster. As you mentioned in your earlier post, you expected a horse to get backed but it drifted instead.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

I'm not convinced personal opinion helps a great deal and it would be a rare person who could consistently out guess the view of the other 500 form experts, 10 minutes before they brought the price to where you think it should be.

Thinking a price should go somewhere will almost certainly cloud your view of what is actually happening.

All that study for every race every day (10000 a year) also takes a lot of time and needs to be cost effective vs simply cold trading more or some other activity.

All personal choice though and if it works go for it, we'd all be shafted if we all did the same thing.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Ergunartun10 wrote:
Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:00 am
Thanls guys some really good advice there.
I had a really good trade on a horse named Shakour last night at kempton was 6.6 20 minutes before off John Gosden trained his horses are usually suported as hes a top trainer and i thouhgt he was way to short.
and i couldnt see a drift just him moving in so i placed a £250 back bet and ended up greening up just before the off for £125 i was constantly thnking should take £40 etc but i let it run and it paid off.
Do you guys somtimes go early on trades if you genuinley believe a horse is way overpriced and is certain to move in say 20 minutes-30 minutes.
If you genuinely believe it's overpriced and certain to move you'd be stupid not to go in early, whether that pays off or not will be down to your own knowledge/experience. Your pnl will eventually tell you whether you were right/wrong to go in early and exploit your own knowledge. You'll find out soon enough whether you can beat the market so don't be afraid to try.

Derek's view that most traders are 'cold traders' isn't my experience, may well be that scalpers turn up and play but alot of traders I know put in the homework and compile notes as they go along on stables that gamble, front runners etc not neccessarily form but many will spend 10 minutes or so perusing the races before the days racing. Knowledge is power if you put your effort in the right places.
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