Trading horses correcting mistakes

[Derek27]

Hi people im new to trading and iv been practicing for a while now and iv been doing quite well swing beting with a bank of around £2k
but occasionally a trade can go wrong and i end up trying to correct the mistake sometimes 3-4 times thinking it will eventually go my way.
there was a race not long ago at Kempton a horse named Zubayr a good jumps horse decent record on the flat was around 5.5 on the exchanges i thought this would win but it drifted to 8.8 pre off id backed it at 6.0 thinking it would move in and i ended up having to let this trade run in because i was so miffed at the drift.
in the end Zubayr ended up coming 2nd and traded at even money inplay which i cashed out on.
but im wondering how many times do people know their racing and use that kowledge to trade on horses or do people trade on weight of money and the market only even if they think that drift on that horse is wrong??????
and do people have to correct mistakes alot??
Do people find scalping easier then swing trading?

There are a lot of threads on this subject in the psychology section.

If you're trading and gambling at the same time (which has a lot of complications), you have £20 on a 6.0 that you think has a 5.0 chance, the price goes out, it's fine to let the bet run only if £20 was an appropriate betting stake. Generally trading involves much larger stakes than gambling because you are just aiming for a few ticks profit. In this case you would be grossly overstaking and doomed if you allow bets to run.

One of the hardest things about trading is getting a feel for how volatile the markets will be and how far they can go for or against you, and adjusting your stakes and swings accordingly.

The best way to correct a mistake is to not make it again! You don't need to do it on the same horse/market. Some people don't like seeing red on the exchange, but you need to forget about your reds and look at your profit/loss for the day/week/month. You've got plenty of time to make up for any losses.

[Ergunartun10]

Thanls guys some really good advice there.
I had a really good trade on a horse named Shakour last night at kempton was 6.6 20 minutes before off John Gosden trained his horses are usually suported as hes a top trainer and i thouhgt he was way to short.
and i couldnt see a drift just him moving in so i placed a £250 back bet and ended up greening up just before the off for £125 i was constantly thnking should take £40 etc but i let it run and it paid off.
Do you guys somtimes go early on trades if you genuinley believe a horse is way overpriced and is certain to move in say 20 minutes-30 minutes.

[Derek27]

I think most horse race traders are cold traders, that is, taking no interest in the race and just exploiting market weaknesses.

It's a big mistake to be "certain" that a horse is going to go in one direction. Experience has taught me that you can never be certain of what's going to happen in a market and over confidences leads to overstaking which in turn leads to disaster. As you mentioned in your earlier post, you expected a horse to get backed but it drifted instead.

[ShaunWhite]

I'm not convinced personal opinion helps a great deal and it would be a rare person who could consistently out guess the view of the other 500 form experts, 10 minutes before they brought the price to where you think it should be.

Thinking a price should go somewhere will almost certainly cloud your view of what is actually happening.

All that study for every race every day (10000 a year) also takes a lot of time and needs to be cost effective vs simply cold trading more or some other activity.

All personal choice though and if it works go for it, we'd all be shafted if we all did the same thing.

[spreadbetting]

Thanls guys some really good advice there.
I had a really good trade on a horse named Shakour last night at kempton was 6.6 20 minutes before off John Gosden trained his horses are usually suported as hes a top trainer and i thouhgt he was way to short.
and i couldnt see a drift just him moving in so i placed a £250 back bet and ended up greening up just before the off for £125 i was constantly thnking should take £40 etc but i let it run and it paid off.
Do you guys somtimes go early on trades if you genuinley believe a horse is way overpriced and is certain to move in say 20 minutes-30 minutes.

If you genuinely believe it's overpriced and certain to move you'd be stupid not to go in early, whether that pays off or not will be down to your own knowledge/experience. Your pnl will eventually tell you whether you were right/wrong to go in early and exploit your own knowledge. You'll find out soon enough whether you can beat the market so don't be afraid to try.

Derek's view that most traders are 'cold traders' isn't my experience, may well be that scalpers turn up and play but alot of traders I know put in the homework and compile notes as they go along on stables that gamble, front runners etc not neccessarily form but many will spend 10 minutes or so perusing the races before the days racing. Knowledge is power if you put your effort in the right places.

[ShaunWhite]

many will spend 10 minutes or so perusing the races before the days racing.

+1 here. Cold doesn't mean you have to be ice cold.