We Are The Dumb Money!!!!!

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Derek27
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:28 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:18 pm
There is a clear difference. I'm an intelligent person with a good understanding of trading but I have occasionally let frustration or carelessness get the better of me, resulting in some fairly amateurish mistakes. This is clearly a mindset/psychology issue.
Personally, I think that's the minority position - i.e. being up there with the Peter's, Dallas's, Jolly's etc.

You've brushed over how you came to that "good understanding" assuming everyone has that - they don't. I reckon 90% don't
I would have thought that anyone who consistently profits from trading is either extremely lucky or has a good understanding of trading - I don't regard myself as an exception, I would presume many on this forum have a good understanding of trading. Haven't a clue where you get 90% from.
Iron
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OK, so now we have:

A. Overstaking
B. Backing at the bottom of the spread and vice versa.
C. Getting distracted by attractive TV presenters (not sure that's a mistake, but I'll keep it in!). :lol:
D. Missing the off
E. Forgetting to cancel unmatched bets

I would add:

F. Doubling down when the market runs away from your position.
G. Not cutting your losses when it's prudent to do so (if you are employing a strategy where you use a stop).

Not making those Homer Simpson like errors means I won't lose my shirt as quickly as someone who does (but unless I have a lot more in the tank, lose it I will).

Peter talks about the gap between not making mistakes like the above and profitability as being small, but unless you have some way of generating repeatable alpha, aka an edge, then it might as well be a mile-wide chasm.

Jeff
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Derek27
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Backing at the bottom of the spread or laying at the top isn't necessarily a mistake, there will be instances where you feel the market will sharply move in that direction.
Iron
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Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:02 pm
I would have thought that anyone who consistently profits from trading is either extremely lucky or has a good understanding of trading - I don't regard myself as an exception, I would presume many on this forum have a good understanding of trading. Haven't a clue where you get 90% from.
Having a long-term edge doesn't mean that you need to have a good understanding of trading.

This forum shows that many traders disagree strongly about the market.

All you need is to have a long term edge. It may well work despite what you think is going on in the market, rather than because of it.
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ruthlessimon
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Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:02 pm
I would have thought that anyone who consistently profits from trading is either extremely lucky or has a good understanding of trading - I don't regard myself as an exception, I would presume many on this forum have a good understanding of trading. Haven't a clue where you get 90% from.
I've heard this before, & yes I think it's true. But the Sunday league footballer could absolutely learn something from Harry Kane. Does the Sunday league footballer have a good understanding of football? Imo, to the right person, but it's a tricky one. To a spanking new newbie to football, yes - but at the same time he's only Sunday league. Eventually, if the newbie wants to continue his development - he needs to find Harry Kane
Iron
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We can nit pick about what items should make the cut, but my central point stands! :)

Jeff
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:13 pm
Backing at the bottom of the spread or laying at the top isn't necessarily a mistake, there will be instances where you feel the market will sharply move in that direction.
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Euler
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Ferru123 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:14 pm
We can nit pick about what items should make the cut, but my central point stands! :)

Jeff
Your central point merely shows where the dumb money is, it's quite ironic really.
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Derek27
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Ferru123 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:14 pm
We can nit pick about what items should make the cut, but my central point stands! :)

Jeff
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:13 pm
Backing at the bottom of the spread or laying at the top isn't necessarily a mistake, there will be instances where you feel the market will sharply move in that direction.
It won't happen often in UK markets but in France you sometimes get a back overround of 95%, which means backing every horse at the bottom of the spread can be profitable. True, most horses are only available to back for a few quid but ironically it's usually the favourite that's the giveaway.
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Derek27
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Ferru123 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:14 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:02 pm
I would have thought that anyone who consistently profits from trading is either extremely lucky or has a good understanding of trading - I don't regard myself as an exception, I would presume many on this forum have a good understanding of trading. Haven't a clue where you get 90% from.
Having a long-term edge doesn't mean that you need to have a good understanding of trading.

This forum shows that many traders disagree strongly about the market.

All you need is to have a long term edge. It may well work despite what you think is going on in the market, rather than because of it.
The fact that football pundits disagree about football doesn't mean one of them lacks understanding.

I know some people may have found a profitable strategy but if you're 100% manual trader and consistently profitable you must have a good understanding of trading. In fact, I can't think of a skilled trade where one can be successful without a good understanding of the trade.
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ruthlessimon
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Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:18 pm
The fact that football pundits disagree about football doesn't mean one of them lacks understanding.
John Terry doesn't agree!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQq4_JjHQXA
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boardrep
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What an excellent thread ...the first Ive read in a while....Anna and Le Tiss I must say I enjoy your humour and candid replies
Peter your comments are always thought provoking
thank you all
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Derek27
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:25 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:18 pm
The fact that football pundits disagree about football doesn't mean one of them lacks understanding.
John Terry doesn't agree!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQq4_JjHQXA
He doesn't disagree either!

He's simply dismissing the views of somebody whose advice he's not interested in.
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ruthlessimon
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Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:42 pm
He's simply dismissing the views of somebody whose advice he's not interested in.
.. because "he didn't play at a good level". So from Terry's POV Savage didn't have a good understanding of the game he played
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Derek27
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:49 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:42 pm
He's simply dismissing the views of somebody whose advice he's not interested in.
.. because "he didn't play at a good level". So from Terry's POV Savage didn't have a good understanding of the game he played
The point I was making is that two people who disagree can both be experts - I didn't say they will be experts.
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ruthlessimon
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I'll finish with this. I remember asking my grandad (who was a bank manager) about getting rich - when I was like 10 or something. & he said something along these lines this:

"If I only bought stocks that were up 10%, & sold them when they were down 10%, I'd have been a rich man."

That's gotta be up there as some of the worst advice ever. No surprise he never got rich trading stocks. Also this is an interesting dilemma. Had I questioned him at 10yrs old. What would I have been labeled as? (remembering the fact that he was a bank manager)
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