We Are The Dumb Money!!!!!

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SeaHorseRacing
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mhorro wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:11 pm
Hi Anna,

Thanks for your candid comments, we are all entitled to our opinion and that is how it should be.

I put this scenario to you.

You are a layer and do your home work on a race and home in on a horse you want to lay.

You do all you stats and analysis etc. How do you factor in the horse's handicap mark not being it;s true value? So you might be laying a horse that is better than you think because it has should we say been economically ridden in previous races!!!!

In my opinion that makes you the dumb money correct? You do not have an edge you are on the wrong side of the fence!

I think this is what is wrong with the horse racing game in the UK small owners and trainers are struggling to pay so gambling tops up the coffers!

If we take Forex trading and brokers I bet most of the investment banks have their fingers in some sort of financial commitment in the broker firms, they cannot lose, the retailer shorts and the bank longs or vica versa!!!!!!

Thanks
You should never back a horse you fancy without using the other runners in a race to compare to know what price it should be.

I fancy atleast 4 or 5 horses every single day of the week, but I dont back them because most of the time they are underlays. Majority of my winning thoughts are 4/1 shots who should be 6/1 = a bet your going to lose long term.

IMO a handicap mark is purely subjective. Think like a trainer and you will find more winners and certainly more horses "well handicapped"

75% of all runs on all low-grade racing are not as honest as you think. Not suggesting most horses are being cheated but everyone's out to play the system, you have to remember too. Trainers job is to look after and cater for the welfare of horse. Punters need to know that the majority of horses can only stay fit for approx 6 weeks and can take as much as 12 weeks to get a horse fit. Knowing and working on that will give you an edge.

There are exceptions, the best horses are honest triers and will win all year round just because they have the will to win. You can get good horses without ability, again they are consistant because they want it- find one of these in its peak fitness you have a massive edge.

Another note. People are so hung up on the distance of a horse, what I have learned is how much a horse can change over the years. Time and time again you will find horses who have struggled over say 7f in his younger days... then spends his career running 8f,9,f and 10f. Eventually, that horse will actually have a preference to winning over 8f. The come out of form... all of sudden run over 7f and win a string at that distance. Horses change just like us and it can happen quickly.
foxwood
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mhorro wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:32 pm
Who is the dumb money?
In any scenario If you don't know who is the dumb money then it's probably you :roll:
Anna List
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

foxwood wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:10 pm
mhorro wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:32 pm
Who is the dumb money?
In any scenario If you don't know who is the dumb money then it's probably you :roll:
Many a true word spoken in jest. :D
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Derek27
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Location: UK

The answer to the question really lies in your profit/loss account. The more you lose the more likely your money is dumb, or on the dumb side. The more you win the more likely it is to be smart money.
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BlackHat Betting
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Anna List wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:17 pm
Had to come in on this one.

OP - my apologies but you are talking bol**cks.

I'm a layer - not a trader - but it makes no never mind.

It's all about discipline and maximising chances when they come along.

Through the analysis of data, 'edges' can be quickly and efficiently identified and exploited which, of course, just as quickly neutralisers them.

However, I've been in this game for 'some time'. In all honesty, it's probably getting easier to make money not more difficult in the horse racing markets. It's true, the markets are becoming more efficient - but that's only at the high-level and over the long-term. Over the short-term, and at the low-level, market inefficiencies are probably getting worse and that's because communication is getting better and faster. As a result, it's easier and quicker to spread false information - and that's a lucrative source of market inefficiency. Also, if you think that 'fiddling' is decreasing, think again. Don't want to dwell too much on this, for obvious reasons.

Because someone has a shed load and a fast computer does not guarantee success. Look up LTCM.
are you an in play layer?
Anna List
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BlackHat Betting wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:58 am
Anna List wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:17 pm
Had to come in on this one.

OP - my apologies but you are talking bol**cks.

I'm a layer - not a trader - but it makes no never mind.

It's all about discipline and maximising chances when they come along.

Through the analysis of data, 'edges' can be quickly and efficiently identified and exploited which, of course, just as quickly neutralisers them.

However, I've been in this game for 'some time'. In all honesty, it's probably getting easier to make money not more difficult in the horse racing markets. It's true, the markets are becoming more efficient - but that's only at the high-level and over the long-term. Over the short-term, and at the low-level, market inefficiencies are probably getting worse and that's because communication is getting better and faster. As a result, it's easier and quicker to spread false information - and that's a lucrative source of market inefficiency. Also, if you think that 'fiddling' is decreasing, think again. Don't want to dwell too much on this, for obvious reasons.

Because someone has a shed load and a fast computer does not guarantee success. Look up LTCM.
are you an in play layer?
Yes, mostly.
Last edited by Anna List on Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
Kalumpus
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If you consistently make money your money is smart, if you consistently lose then your money is dumb - that simple!
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BlackHat Betting
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Anna List wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:09 am
BlackHat Betting wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:58 am
Anna List wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:17 pm
Had to come in on this one.

OP - my apologies but you are talking bol**cks.

I'm a layer - not a trader - but it makes no never mind.

It's all about discipline and maximising chances when they come along.

Through the analysis of data, 'edges' can be quickly and efficiently identified and exploited which, of course, just as quickly neutralisers them.

However, I've been in this game for 'some time'. In all honesty, it's probably getting easier to make money not more difficult in the horse racing markets. It's true, the markets are becoming more efficient - but that's only at the high-level and over the long-term. Over the short-term, and at the low-level, market inefficiencies are probably getting worse and that's because communication is getting better and faster. As a result, it's easier and quicker to spread false information - and that's a lucrative source of market inefficiency. Also, if you think that 'fiddling' is decreasing, think again. Don't want to dwell too much on this, for obvious reasons.

Because someone has a shed load and a fast computer does not guarantee success. Look up LTCM.
are you an in play layer?
Yes, mostly.
Ah ok good good I am not the only one that prefers that way to trade.

are you scalping or simply laying off the 3 legged donkeys?
Anna List
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

BlackHat Betting wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:58 pm
Anna List wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:09 am
BlackHat Betting wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:58 am


are you an in play layer?
Yes, mostly.
Ah ok good good I am not the only one that prefers that way to trade.

are you scalping or simply laying off the 3 legged donkeys?
In the main, I lay.

If, after a match, it looks as if the horse will win, I back it to offset some of my losses. This, obviously, is a judgement call.

The odds that I submit my lay at are pre-calculated by me before the off. The lay is created before the off but not submitted until the off. The odds represent what I consider to be value.

If I can't get the odds I want, I trash the bet - rather than take odds which aren't value.

If I don't get an 'early' match, I trash the bet. Again, this is a judgement call. By trashing the bet at an early stage, I don't get hit by a fast finisher.

It means I have to operate in manual mode 100% of the time but I prefer it that way. I'm in control.

Yes, it's labour intensive, but then, I learn a lot that I wouldn't if I automated the process (which I could do if I wanted to).

I've tried trading but, to be honest, I'm not good. I just don't have the natural flair that I have as a layer.

I back, on occasions, but only under certain and rare circumstances.

Anna
Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

mhorro wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:32 pm
In trading you have Investment banks, brokers and retail traders ( retail traders that is jo public the DUMB MONEY ! )

Why do I get the feeling this is similar trading via the sports exchanges.
Some retail traders make money. I'd hazard that most lose money (I seem to remember the figure is 70%).

It's quite possibly the same on Betfair.

Remember when you see someone posting a big total that the money didn't come out of the ether, as a reward by the gods for a good trading performance.

It came from other exchange users' pockets.

The lure of trading: It could be YOU!
The reality: It probably won't be.

That might sound negative, but this is a game where many are called but few are chosen, and it's important to be honest with yourself.

Jeff
Bluesky
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Ferru123 wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:06 pm
Some retail traders make money. I'd hazard that most lose money (I seem to remember the figure is 70%).
Many years ago (in the 90s) I used to day trade and swing trade US stocks, I got to know a few insiders working for the various trading companies. They told me the failure rate for retail traders was around the 95% mark. I would imagine it hasn't changed that much, I would be surprised if its as low as 70% but perhaps information and trading systems have improved which may account for the increase in the success of retail traders.
Anna List
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Bluesky wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:31 am
Ferru123 wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:06 pm
Some retail traders make money. I'd hazard that most lose money (I seem to remember the figure is 70%).
Many years ago (in the 90s) I used to day trade and swing trade US stocks, I got to know a few insiders working for the various trading companies. They told me the failure rate for retail traders was around the 95% mark. I would imagine it hasn't changed that much, I would be surprised if its as low as 70% but perhaps information and trading systems have improved which may account for the increase in the success of retail traders.
I seem to remember betfair dropping a bol**ck, just before they introduced PC, by releasing a statement that inferred that 95% of their customers lost over the long term so I'm sorely tempted to go with Bluesky's 95% rather than Ferru's 70%.
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Euler
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The majority of money lost on the exchanges comes from punters, system followers and chasers. If you trade at random you will get random results but lose because of the commission you pay to the provider. So the gap to overcome is really small and most of that can be overcome by not making obvious mistakes and exploiting those that do.
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
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Euler wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:29 pm
The majority of money lost on the exchanges comes from punters, system followers and chasers.
Exactly right, and this forum has been littered with all 3 of those over the years.

Their future on the exchanges puts them into another 3 categories -

They either saw the light and are now succesful
They gave up having failed
They are still struggling on, whilst wearing cheap underpants from Primark
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Euler wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:29 pm
The majority of money lost on the exchanges comes from punters, system followers and chasers. If you trade at random you will get random results but lose because of the commission you pay to the provider. So the gap to overcome is really small and most of that can be overcome by not making obvious mistakes and exploiting those that do.
You can add arbers to that list. I was surprised how much and how consistently I was losing on Betfair (and winning it back with bookies) in the months I was predominantly arbing.
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