General discussion : Jockeys Playing It Cool On The Bridle

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Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:21 pm

I find this a fascinating topic.

Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that there is lots of corruption. How would you profit from it? For example, would you look for horses that were strong favourites in their previous race, but performed terribly, in the hope that their trainer might have remembered to train them ahead of today's race? Or would you look for suspicious market movements, like a huge steam on a horse that had previously been drifting?

It also raises the question of whether analysis of things like trainer form, jockey form, horse RPR figures, etc serve only to create interesting stories about a horse's chances which lure in mug punters, rather than telling us anything useful (on the assumption that the horse's true fundamentals are known only to connections).

Any thoughts?

Jeff

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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2619
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:35 pm

Ferru123 wrote:
Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:21 pm
I find this a fascinating topic.

Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that there is lots of corruption. How would you profit from it? For example, would you look for horses that were strong favourites in their previous race, but performed terribly, in the hope that their trainer might have remembered to train them ahead of today's race? Or would you look for suspicious market movements, like a huge steam on a horse that had previously been drifting?

It also raises the question of whether analysis of things like trainer form, jockey form, horse RPR figures, etc serve only to create interesting stories about a horse's chances which lure in mug punters, rather than telling us anything useful (on the assumption that the horse's true fundamentals are known only to connections).

Any thoughts?

Jeff

I look at a horse running styles. For example, some horses can only win when they make the running pillar to post, yet if this horse is being held up in its recent races... Likely its being fiddled. You may look at a horses form and see that every run over 6f it makes the running, yet every run over 1m it has been held up in the rear of the race. Usually, you find this horse showing a massive improvement last time and all of a suddenly finished 3rd and now today back over 6f... fiddled horse there.

Look back at video replays, a lot of trainers stick headgear or even first time headgear onto horses to hide a fiddle. Look back at the horses replays if you can see no reason whatsoever for having this new piece of headgear added, likely they're going for the win.
When your horse wins at 33/1 when it has duck eggs as forms, the trainer and jockey is usually called to the steward's room. A piece of headgear is the easiest way to say it improved the horse.

Just watch videos back... for example theres a horse in my trackers KINGLAMI, ridden by Josephen Gordon not so long ago. Now shes rides like a strong man. If you watch the most recent run of this horse your see how pathetically she was tapping the horse with the whip... If you compare her usually rides and then look that KINGLAMI is a very lazy horse you can roughly guess it is being fiddled.

Anna List
Posts: 143
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:55 pm

Ferru123 wrote:
Wed Feb 21, 2018 5:21 pm
I find this a fascinating topic.

Any thoughts?

Jeff
I do too and yes.

We need to go back to basics to address this issue.

Why are people fiddling?

1. Handicap races - to cause the horse to run badly in order to reduce it's OR and increase it's odds (probably) next time it runs. When, eventually, it wins, it will be at decent odds.
Non-handicap races - to cause the horse to run badly in order to increase it's odds (probably) next time it runs. When, eventually, it wins, it will be at decent odds.

2. To profit from laying it.

3. Both 1 & 2.

Fiddling is either:

4. Short term - eg. a horse is deliberately under trained for a specific race so that it runs badly and loses. Connections lay the horse and collect. It's illegal but is probably done via third-parties.

5. Long-term - a horse is deliberately under trained for a number of races. This will cause the horse to run badly, the odds to increase and the OR to decrease. When the trainer decides that the horse's OR has fallen to a mark off which the horse is capable of winning, the horse will be trained to the peak of perfection, win at big odds and the connections will collect.

To profit from this, if indeed, that is what is happening, we need to identify races where we think this has happened in the past, and identify data patterns that are common to a large proportion of such races.

We then look for future races in which these patterns repeat and, when we spot one, we bet.

No?

ljr
Posts: 23
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2016 11:00 am

Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:10 am

joined this magnificent establishment to add another string to my bow. I'm a layer at heart and, to a far lesser extent, a backer. I had hoped to become a trader but, after reading some of the comments on this forum, I have decided against it.

I had hoped that my laying and backing skills were going to be an advantage and that I could use them to fast-track to trading stardom. However, my fear is, they won't be. In fact, my backing and laying knowledge could be a big negative because, the sound trading action may be to L2B, whereas my backing and laying knowledge might cause me to B2L.

It's cost me years of my life to learn my trade as a layer.

I'm beginning to realise that it may take me just as long to become a good trader.

You know what? On balance, I'm probably going to be better off further developing my laying skills than attempting to become a trader.

You chasp and chaspesses have helped me make, what I feel to be, the best choice. My thanks for that.

I also hope, that in some small way, I have returned the compliment and helped some of the good people of this forum.

This is therefore my last post.

Anna

So is this your farewell post.. on no she wants to post more that’s she’s s layer not a trader 😂😂

Anna List
Posts: 143
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:48 am

Some things in life are obvious and clear. They are 'no brainers'. Other things are less obvious and less clear.

I would love to be a successful trader, if only to be able to say 'I succeeded against the odds'. It will also give me another string to my bow and provide another back-up plan, should the need arise. On the down side, It will involve a lot of effort and cost because, initially, I am likely to lose. It will also take time away from laying and, to a lesser extent, from backing. There's also a distinct possibility that I will fail. Initially therefore, I'll be losing on both the swings and on the roundabouts. If I succeed long-term, however, I'll be in a better position than now.

When laying is going well, I feel less inclined to learn to trade and more inclined to look to improve my laying skills.

When laying is going less well, I feel more inclined to learn to trade.

I'd love this game to be more stable so that I am able to make a decision and stick to it. I'd also like to be less emotional.

Usually, I don't find it too difficult to make a decision and stick to it.

Well, this game isn't stable and I'm not unemotional and I am finding it difficult to make a decision and I am finding it difficult to stick to the decisions I've made.

And that, said Anna, is that.

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