General discussion : My Journey, day by day

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Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Mon Feb 26, 2018 6:55 pm

I'm not sure where the right place is to put this topic - but it's basically for me to chart my journey from here on in so if an admin thinks it's in the wrong place then please move it (or even delete it) if it feels wrong.

I've studied the trading video's from Peter and others i've found too, i've played in practice quite a bit and i did the tiny stakes thing for a while. Tiny stakes didnt really do it for me because i'm pretty wealthy due to other business interests so it kinda didnt matter enough to me and i'd just leave everything if it went against me not really giving a toss.

That changes from today. I've put a small bank of £500 into betfair and to begin with i'm just going for small tick £ size trades which i will increase over time if successful. Initially i'm setting the tick size to £1 - I know this is still tiny but i need to build a consistent win/loss ratio and slooowwwly increase the stakes. The reason for the £500 bank is just so i can grow the stakes size without worrying about the margin needed.

I also know how important this is from a psychological perspective. I used to be a forex trader and back in 2004 turned a 1000% + profit in 12 months starting at £10 per pip on a system I devised. It failed in 2009 when algorithmic trading took to the fore and the markets changed forever.

One of the hardest things was managing the risk in my head - i started at the £10 a pip (which is 1 lot) and by the end of year 1 i was at £155 a pip - to begin with the £10 was scary but as you compound and over time you get used to it so that's my plan with this. Each step in stakes needs to be absorbed by the brain to give a comfortable pain threshold.

Right now most of my trades are £5 at the higher odds and up to £50 at the lower odds auto calculated by betangel.

My strategy is one based on technical analysis using a simple moving average and 2 second candle charts based on the back price.

Here are my initial rules of play:

1) Always back first - no laying trades first due to the liability

2) Only consider the first three horses and where possible trade the favorite

3)Take trades at or above recent highs taking into account a reducing lay liquidity before hitting the button

4) don't be greedy - take 1 or 2 ticks on an initial trade with the possibility of more ambitious targets once you have a finger in the market (and a feeling for where it's going)

5) Dont add any more rules for at least two weeks :)

So it's day one - today i worked from the 13:55 until not far off 6:30 - here are my results


Things I learned today:

1) I'm prone to looking for too good a price - i see a move coming and place my order too high only to see price head down immediately - so I got the move right but didn't accept the current back price. One thing i did not do is chase it down, if i didn't get the price then i just waited for a new setup.

2) In an adverse way i'm also prone to taking them at a point which really signals that the uptrend will continue. so the order i place at say 3 ticks above price get's taken and then keeps going before a turn. this suggests that i'm not reading the lay liquidity properly on these occasions.

3) When a trade goes against me, like many traders i let it run - my reasoning for this is that "hey, it's the favorite - it will come back" - to be fair this is actually pretty accurate, i had several losers of up to £5 today which did indeed come back to a profit - but that isn't good for my loss control so i need to do something about that.

number three stems from my trading experience - when i was trading forex full time i lost money UNTIL i stopped using stop losses. to me stop losses are the devils spawn because once i stopped using them i just made tons of money. I need to work out if the same happens here. right now the way i'm controlling this from full losses is by always taking SP - so any losses are generally small anyway.

So that's day one of my journey blog.

If you have any CONSTRUCTIVE comments i'd love to hear them.

If not then i will update around the same time same channel when i next trade (should be tomorrow but not holding myself to any promises, if i want a day off i take it!)

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Posts: 2005
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:04 pm

I want to wish you the best of luck on your journey and hope you have very thick skin.
I understand your reasons to do this but be prepared from a few posters, to put you down and police you word for word as I have received in the past.

This is like dejavu for me and your results were look very similar to how mine used to when I first started out.

Keep it up.


Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:04 pm

Cheers SHR. I completely understand. Had the same thing in forex and t-shirts (my million dollar business)

Once i became an expert i often attracted what i call 'askholes' - people who ask you something and then tell you that you are wrong.

Right now i'm very receptive to feedback from people doing well at this and those like you. Im hoping not to attract the naysayers. I see the potential here.

Those who believe that something cannot be done should not interrupt those doing it :D

Posts: 413
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:26 pm

Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:32 am

Good luck with this Soultrader. Your experience with forex trading should stand you in good stead. It will be interesting to see how you progress, you seem to be taking things very seriously and so you should have as good a chance as anyone. I think some pro sports traders use TA successfully, but most of the ones I know do not. Still if it works for you then go for it, I hope you do well.

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Posts: 3993
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:57 am

Are you posting your progress for your benefit or ours?

The reason I say that is not because I'm being harsh or flippant.

I say that because you will have some bad days along the way, especially at the beginner stage where you are at.

So don't feel compelled to keep showing impressive progress and then get derailed by a few bad trades, where you start gambling to maintain your reputation with others. You will have more respect from others if you post your inevitable losers, and especially if you can accept those losers as part of your trading education, and therefore try to analyse and understand what went wrong, not simply chase them

Good luck

As I have said to others, avoid alcohol when trading, and don't allow boners to distract you

Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:37 am

Thanks Bluesky.

LeTiss, it's for me more than anything - a place to record my thoughts and challenges and hoping for some help along the way from profitable traders.

I'm not sure that forex experience will help at all, but a market is a market and just like different currency pairs im thinking all races will act differently too. will be an interesting journey.

The reason i've started it is that my shirt business just ticks over now. The glory days were 2013 - 2016 when i was doing 16 hours a day at it. Now i have a guy in Nicaragua who runs it for me.

6 weeks ago I had major surgery for bowel cancer. i'm recovering well, much better than i thought i would be - but still need to rest. I can't sit in front of the TV all day (unless the snooker is on) and with this i'm thinking like i did with the shirt business when i started - "i'll throw some money in and try it" if the money disappears then fine, i'll just disappear too and will have had some fun along the way.

Posts: 61
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 7:40 am
Location: Canberra, Australia

Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:50 am

Hi Soultrader,

Firstly great news that you are recovering well from your surgery. May your recovery continue to be speedy!

I'm really interested in your approach and progress. I too am pretty much a beginner - I've been tinkering here and there for a while but never really have attacked it seriously. I am most interested in the moving averages approach. This is something I've been considering as well but I hear many people say it doesn't work as well in the sports markets because prices are all correlated which isn't necessarily the case in financial markets.

Might be off topic for some but I'd also love to hear your thoughts on financial trading as well since you are obviously experienced. I'm reading a lot on financial trading as well and am torn whether or not to get into it - I've started watching some of Anton Kreil's stuff which basically seems to be saying its all a scam to advantage brokers.

Will be keen to read your updates!

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Posts: 3993
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Tue Feb 27, 2018 10:59 am

Pleased the surgery went well, although if you speak to some traders, they will tell you that this game doesn't help anybody with bowel problems!

I look forward to your progress

Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:03 pm

LeTiss, you made me laugh with that one - nothing can help my bowel problems at the mo, i'm on a temporary bag!

Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:16 pm

Cards37 thanks for the reply,

In the Forex markets currencies are highly correlated - to be honest a moving average of any length is just a wiggly line on the chart - when i trade forex these days I trade with naked charts and I trade a stop hunt approach - i.e when everyone thinks the price is going down then i buy. it's basically what the banks do.

I would seriously try to convince you NOT to go into the forex world though - back when i made a lot of money the markets could be relied on to move 100 pips in a direction between breakfast and tea time. since the algo traders came along around 2010 the markets are so erratic and little can be relied on. At my height I had an automated strategy of one trade a day which did 30% a month on average - till it died. I even wrote a book about it - available on amazon lol.

To be fair i'm just trying the same moving average i used to good effect in my early days of forex trading - I found a magic number that more often than not was reliable - it had an edge. Right now in this market I don't know if it's reliable and i'm tracking it's progress. If it does turn out to be reliable then it's happy days - here's an example chart from the 16:15 at chelmsford city today


will they all go like that? i doubt it as yet . I wish i could load a data feed into metatrader because i had soime really kick ass indicators that i had built myself.

Reagrds Anton Kreill he sounds like a good guy, but then doesn't everyone that you watch on youtube? I know the video you refer to. Forex is very difficult today. I still trade it. I used to be a day trader, now i sit here with positions open that i took before my surgery! I use 4 hour charting and just look for the obvious areas where stops accumulate.

I'd love to discover that stop hunting is a viable strategy on here but so far do not find much evidence to support it.

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