My Journey, day by day

A place to discuss anything.
Post Reply
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

I'm not sure where the right place is to put this topic - but it's basically for me to chart my journey from here on in so if an admin thinks it's in the wrong place then please move it (or even delete it) if it feels wrong.

I've studied the trading video's from Peter and others i've found too, i've played in practice quite a bit and i did the tiny stakes thing for a while. Tiny stakes didnt really do it for me because i'm pretty wealthy due to other business interests so it kinda didnt matter enough to me and i'd just leave everything if it went against me not really giving a toss.

That changes from today. I've put a small bank of £500 into betfair and to begin with i'm just going for small tick £ size trades which i will increase over time if successful. Initially i'm setting the tick size to £1 - I know this is still tiny but i need to build a consistent win/loss ratio and slooowwwly increase the stakes. The reason for the £500 bank is just so i can grow the stakes size without worrying about the margin needed.

I also know how important this is from a psychological perspective. I used to be a forex trader and back in 2004 turned a 1000% + profit in 12 months starting at £10 per pip on a system I devised. It failed in 2009 when algorithmic trading took to the fore and the markets changed forever.

One of the hardest things was managing the risk in my head - i started at the £10 a pip (which is 1 lot) and by the end of year 1 i was at £155 a pip - to begin with the £10 was scary but as you compound and over time you get used to it so that's my plan with this. Each step in stakes needs to be absorbed by the brain to give a comfortable pain threshold.

Right now most of my trades are £5 at the higher odds and up to £50 at the lower odds auto calculated by betangel.

My strategy is one based on technical analysis using a simple moving average and 2 second candle charts based on the back price.

Here are my initial rules of play:

1) Always back first - no laying trades first due to the liability

2) Only consider the first three horses and where possible trade the favorite

3)Take trades at or above recent highs taking into account a reducing lay liquidity before hitting the button

4) don't be greedy - take 1 or 2 ticks on an initial trade with the possibility of more ambitious targets once you have a finger in the market (and a feeling for where it's going)

5) Dont add any more rules for at least two weeks :)

So it's day one - today i worked from the 13:55 until not far off 6:30 - here are my results

Image

Things I learned today:

1) I'm prone to looking for too good a price - i see a move coming and place my order too high only to see price head down immediately - so I got the move right but didn't accept the current back price. One thing i did not do is chase it down, if i didn't get the price then i just waited for a new setup.

2) In an adverse way i'm also prone to taking them at a point which really signals that the uptrend will continue. so the order i place at say 3 ticks above price get's taken and then keeps going before a turn. this suggests that i'm not reading the lay liquidity properly on these occasions.

3) When a trade goes against me, like many traders i let it run - my reasoning for this is that "hey, it's the favorite - it will come back" - to be fair this is actually pretty accurate, i had several losers of up to £5 today which did indeed come back to a profit - but that isn't good for my loss control so i need to do something about that.

number three stems from my trading experience - when i was trading forex full time i lost money UNTIL i stopped using stop losses. to me stop losses are the devils spawn because once i stopped using them i just made tons of money. I need to work out if the same happens here. right now the way i'm controlling this from full losses is by always taking SP - so any losses are generally small anyway.

So that's day one of my journey blog.

If you have any CONSTRUCTIVE comments i'd love to hear them.

If not then i will update around the same time same channel when i next trade (should be tomorrow but not holding myself to any promises, if i want a day off i take it!)
User avatar
SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

I want to wish you the best of luck on your journey and hope you have very thick skin.
I understand your reasons to do this but be prepared from a few posters, to put you down and police you word for word as I have received in the past.

This is like dejavu for me and your results were look very similar to how mine used to when I first started out.

Keep it up.

SHR
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Cheers SHR. I completely understand. Had the same thing in forex and t-shirts (my million dollar business)

Once i became an expert i often attracted what i call 'askholes' - people who ask you something and then tell you that you are wrong.

Right now i'm very receptive to feedback from people doing well at this and those like you. Im hoping not to attract the naysayers. I see the potential here.

Those who believe that something cannot be done should not interrupt those doing it :D
Bluesky
Posts: 420
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:26 pm

Good luck with this Soultrader. Your experience with forex trading should stand you in good stead. It will be interesting to see how you progress, you seem to be taking things very seriously and so you should have as good a chance as anyone. I think some pro sports traders use TA successfully, but most of the ones I know do not. Still if it works for you then go for it, I hope you do well.
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Are you posting your progress for your benefit or ours?

The reason I say that is not because I'm being harsh or flippant.

I say that because you will have some bad days along the way, especially at the beginner stage where you are at.

So don't feel compelled to keep showing impressive progress and then get derailed by a few bad trades, where you start gambling to maintain your reputation with others. You will have more respect from others if you post your inevitable losers, and especially if you can accept those losers as part of your trading education, and therefore try to analyse and understand what went wrong, not simply chase them

Good luck

As I have said to others, avoid alcohol when trading, and don't allow boners to distract you
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Thanks Bluesky.

LeTiss, it's for me more than anything - a place to record my thoughts and challenges and hoping for some help along the way from profitable traders.

I'm not sure that forex experience will help at all, but a market is a market and just like different currency pairs im thinking all races will act differently too. will be an interesting journey.

The reason i've started it is that my shirt business just ticks over now. The glory days were 2013 - 2016 when i was doing 16 hours a day at it. Now i have a guy in Nicaragua who runs it for me.

6 weeks ago I had major surgery for bowel cancer. i'm recovering well, much better than i thought i would be - but still need to rest. I can't sit in front of the TV all day (unless the snooker is on) and with this i'm thinking like i did with the shirt business when i started - "i'll throw some money in and try it" if the money disappears then fine, i'll just disappear too and will have had some fun along the way.
User avatar
Cards37
Posts: 234
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 7:40 am
Location: Canberra, Australia

Hi Soultrader,

Firstly great news that you are recovering well from your surgery. May your recovery continue to be speedy!

I'm really interested in your approach and progress. I too am pretty much a beginner - I've been tinkering here and there for a while but never really have attacked it seriously. I am most interested in the moving averages approach. This is something I've been considering as well but I hear many people say it doesn't work as well in the sports markets because prices are all correlated which isn't necessarily the case in financial markets.

Might be off topic for some but I'd also love to hear your thoughts on financial trading as well since you are obviously experienced. I'm reading a lot on financial trading as well and am torn whether or not to get into it - I've started watching some of Anton Kreil's stuff which basically seems to be saying its all a scam to advantage brokers.

Will be keen to read your updates!
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Pleased the surgery went well, although if you speak to some traders, they will tell you that this game doesn't help anybody with bowel problems!

I look forward to your progress
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

LeTiss, you made me laugh with that one - nothing can help my bowel problems at the mo, i'm on a temporary bag!
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Cards37 thanks for the reply,

In the Forex markets currencies are highly correlated - to be honest a moving average of any length is just a wiggly line on the chart - when i trade forex these days I trade with naked charts and I trade a stop hunt approach - i.e when everyone thinks the price is going down then i buy. it's basically what the banks do.

I would seriously try to convince you NOT to go into the forex world though - back when i made a lot of money the markets could be relied on to move 100 pips in a direction between breakfast and tea time. since the algo traders came along around 2010 the markets are so erratic and little can be relied on. At my height I had an automated strategy of one trade a day which did 30% a month on average - till it died. I even wrote a book about it - available on amazon lol.

To be fair i'm just trying the same moving average i used to good effect in my early days of forex trading - I found a magic number that more often than not was reliable - it had an edge. Right now in this market I don't know if it's reliable and i'm tracking it's progress. If it does turn out to be reliable then it's happy days - here's an example chart from the 16:15 at chelmsford city today

Image

will they all go like that? i doubt it as yet . I wish i could load a data feed into metatrader because i had soime really kick ass indicators that i had built myself.

Reagrds Anton Kreill he sounds like a good guy, but then doesn't everyone that you watch on youtube? I know the video you refer to. Forex is very difficult today. I still trade it. I used to be a day trader, now i sit here with positions open that i took before my surgery! I use 4 hour charting and just look for the obvious areas where stops accumulate.

I'd love to discover that stop hunting is a viable strategy on here but so far do not find much evidence to support it.
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Mixed bag today, started off good, ended up poorly.

Image

early doors i was trading just a few races because i was concerned about the weather affecting stuff. I was watching the snooker between the races i didnt take part in - some great snooker today!

So anyway, after the losses I have decided to call it a day and just watch some more snooker and come back again tomorrow revitalised.

Took a loss on the 16:00 at ling today of 85p - I was looking to short Smiley Bagel and identified a rough area of 3.4 to get in. took the trade with around 6 minutes to go and sat waiting for the usual 5 minute rush to the favorite - clearly it never happened and for the next 5 minutes just went rangebound between 3.5 and 3.7. I didn't understand why because there was plenty money flowing. I greened up at about 30 seconds past the start time.

2nd loss of the day wiping out all the previous good fortune was at Ling in the 16:30 - again thought i'd found a nice place and took the trade on the fav at 2.9 with 6 minutes to go - watched it till the off go as high as 3.2 and then greened up at 3.25 about 30 seconds past start time. Hmmmm, need to think about this - had a chance to get out for a 67p loss about 10 seconds past the start time but thought it was coming in. Ended up losing 5.38 and wiping out the day's profit - not good.

I'm noticing that these are all fairly short races of a mile today (one exception). and these drifts may have been caused by people watching the horses struggle in the snow? dunno because i don't watch the races.

So, what can i learn from today?

Firstly i learned that when i'm right i can go for more than a couple of ticks - i had a few three and four tick trades today that continued well after the few ticks i set as a target so it may be that i'm good at spotting the start of a trend.

The mistakes I made on the losers today was 1) not waiting for my chart to be set up properley and 2) when the chart setup is correct but later invalidated get the fuck out! (easier said than done sometimes)

a
Another thing i'm noticing is this - in my old forex trading when there was a breakdown then it was mostly followed by a retracement before continuing allowing me to get in at a better price - this happens less here - it does happen, but not in the last 5 minutes. It does happen 5-15 minutes out. When i see a break i sit there waiting patiently for it to come back to me to get in and it just doesn't happen. So i'm thinking that once i see a break and we are sub 5 minutes then i may just have to get in and wing it. Time will tell. I'm not ready to change anything just yet.

Constructive comments are welcome.
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:52 pm
Mixed bag today, started off good, ended up poorly.

I'm noticing that these are all fairly short races of a mile today (one exception). and these drifts may have been caused by people watching the horses struggle in the snow? dunno because i don't watch the races.
? Horses haven't been running in the snow. The going has been Standard.
Are you looking at the pictures prior to the off, or just the numbers, or the snooker?
User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:52 pm

and sat waiting for the usual 5 minute rush to the favorite
If only it were that simple. When you say 'usual' how many races have you traded to date?

You sound like you're doing a lot of predicting what might happen, I'd sugget that you'd be better off reacting to what you're looking at instead. Very little of your FX TA will apply here, psychology is probably the only transferable skill, and maybe money management (if we ignore that -£5).

Avg win 65p, average loss £3.11 ?
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Hi Shaun, nice to meet you :)

I haven't traded many races, probably a couple of hundred - Interesting that you think financial skills are not transferable, how many financial trades have you made and which financial skills do you think will not transfer well?

Regards the weather i dunno if they are in snow or not lol - i'm a numbers and a chart guy. today's mistake was not getting out when i knew i should. The charts told me that the trend had begun and i ignored it. It won't happen again (well it most likely will but maybe not for a day or so)

When trading i'm looking at the numbers and the charts, both at the same time - the snooker was for when i just though 'nah, i'll skip a few races'

The problem I have in watching the races are that first off i'm color blind so cant see which horse is which based on the shirt and to be honest at this point i'm trying very hard to keep things as simple as they can be. If it transpires that i need to watch the horses pre race then i'll bring that in at a later date - but honestly i think that anything that happens on the field will reflect in the price faster than my eyes darting from the live feed and back to the numbers. I'd sooner see the numbers and keep my eyes on them.

I believe that everything in a market is shown in the numbers and the charts (which are the numbers anyway) - it's all about human emotion which is something i do have a good handle on when it comes to trading. to say that the skills aren't transferable from forex i beg to differ. it's all about fear and greed. My challenge is adjusting to a market that has a finite trading time - this of course heightens human emotions and puts the pressure on. I also have to learn to choose the races that suit my trading style. - that will be quite a learning curve i'm sure.

you're right when you said the psychology is a transferable skill - but trading anything is all psychology and very little else. can i buy this and sell it later for a profit? is the question every trader is asking. What we can't prepare for is the black swan, those things that come along that no-one can predict like the loon that decides to lay 20k.

I'm sure many will think that i'm a mug or a moron. time will tell if that's correct - and it could well be!
Halliday
Posts: 460
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:40 pm

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:37 pm
Hi Shaun, nice to meet you :)

I haven't traded many races, probably a couple of hundred - Interesting that you think financial skills are not transferable, how many financial trades have you made and which financial skills do you think will not transfer well?

Regards the weather i dunno if they are in snow or not lol - i'm a numbers and a chart guy. today's mistake was not getting out when i knew i should. The charts told me that the trend had begun and i ignored it. It won't happen again (well it most likely will but maybe not for a day or so)

When trading i'm looking at the numbers and the charts, both at the same time - the snooker was for when i just though 'nah, i'll skip a few races'

The problem I have in watching the races are that first off i'm color blind so cant see which horse is which based on the shirt and to be honest at this point i'm trying very hard to keep things as simple as they can be. If it transpires that i need to watch the horses pre race then i'll bring that in at a later date - but honestly i think that anything that happens on the field will reflect in the price faster than my eyes darting from the live feed and back to the numbers. I'd sooner see the numbers and keep my eyes on them.

I believe that everything in a market is shown in the numbers and the charts (which are the numbers anyway) - it's all about human emotion which is something i do have a good handle on when it comes to trading. to say that the skills aren't transferable from forex i beg to differ. it's all about fear and greed. My challenge is adjusting to a market that has a finite trading time - this of course heightens human emotions and puts the pressure on. I also have to learn to choose the races that suit my trading style. - that will be quite a learning curve i'm sure.

you're right when you said the psychology is a transferable skill - but trading anything is all psychology and very little else. can i buy this and sell it later for a profit? is the question every trader is asking. What we can't prepare for is the black swan, those things that come along that no-one can predict like the loon that decides to lay 20k.

I'm sure many will think that i'm a mug or a moron. time will tell if that's correct - and it could well be!
I agree that you can trade the horse racing market with very little knowledge of form,class.trainer form, draw bias , going etc

But all the above do impact on price..a lot depends on when you enter the market to trade . Certainly if your going to trade inplay you need to know the profile of the horses and their run style etc, course characteristics etc and how the race will be run

Noticeable draw bias at a meeting .. The "golden highway " at certain courses at certain times . Was the case at Lingfied and Windsor on soft going, in the past which resulted in low drawn horses being shorter than their form entitled over certain distances . Happens a lot at different courses over the season

Sudden change in going resulting say from good to soft .. resulting in soft ground horses shortening etc

Trainers or jockeys having winners in earlier races often means their rides / runners will shorten in later races ( extreme example Dettori Ascot 7)

Favouitres winning races etc

Horses tipped by the likes of Pricewise ( Tom Segal ) or Hugh Taylor invariably shorten in price

Horses playing up in the stalls etc

Trainers at certain meetings .. Mark Johnstons horses at Goodwood . Trainers are creatures of habit and target certain types of races , hit form at certain times if the year

The list is endless but if your entering the market near the off the extreme price adjustments relating to those factors should have been made

Adrian Massey has a free site which is great for crunching stats .. and Proform is good for the same and testing systems but expensive

If your interested in the horses and form etc it's fascinating .. but for some I suspect it can be a negative and result in "gambling " rather than trading and ignoring the actual market trends
Post Reply

Return to “General discussion”