My Journey, day by day

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ShaunWhite
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Original-Soultrader wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:01 pm
1) is it more effective to lay when at an xover regardless of the prior direction?
The tick size changes on crossovers. If you're backing first, a one tick loss is double(ish) a one tick win. No such issue around traditional odds points that aren't also crossovers, these are equally interesting.

That's another way these markets differ, not all ticks are equal. These sports markets are much more interesting and complex than vanilla financials. ;)
Original-Soultrader
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:06 pm
Original-Soultrader wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:01 pm
1) is it more effective to lay when at an xover regardless of the prior direction?
The tick size changes on crossovers. If you're backing first, a one tick loss is double(ish) a one tick win. No such issue around traditional odds points that aren't also crossovers, these are equally interesting.

That's another way these markets differ, not all ticks are equal. These sports markets are much more interesting and complex than vanilla financials. ;)
I understand the xovers Shaun, I watched some vids from caan berry the other day where he was actively laying BECAUSE of the crossovers - but in his videos all the markets were heading down to 4's or 6's - what is the general advice when heading UP to them? is it still a predominantly lay oppotunity? or is this a silly question because you just don't know unless you are watching the ladder?

Maybe they are just good exit points when going up?
spreadbetting
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My advice regarding crossover price points is to ignore any advice about crossover price points in horseracing. They may well have acted as resistance points in the past but in multi runner horseracing markets with x-matching in place they have no real value and won't affect the direction the money is flowing.
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ShaunWhite
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Glad you are viewing the video. Essential at this time of year with so many delayed starts. You'll also notice bot activity is affected by the delays.

All part of why seasonality is an issue here too, 'sell in May and go away, don't come back till St. Ledger's day' used to be the city mantra in my day, but it's almost the exact opposite here.

As for that question about crossover exits etc, no simple answer I'm afraid but they are often significant support/resistance points but not like they used to be.

Good plan to try letting the profits run, in weak markets momentum is king. Not so relevant in races with exposed horses which can snap back to realistic value in a heartbeat.
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SeaHorseRacing
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spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:17 pm
My advice regarding crossover price points is to ignore any advice about crossover price points in horseracing. They may well have acted as resistance points in the past but in multi runner horseracing markets with x-matching in place they have no real value and won't affect the direction the money is flowing.

All though I agree to some extent I have to oppose, I find some crossover points really strong, especially on a drifting horse. A drifting horse heading towards 6, a lot of the time it will resist there and reverse, I find the xover points very helpful in reading a market rather using the change in increments as an advantage.
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Derek27
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Crossover points are something I only think of when scalping - there's a disadvantage to backing at 4 for a one or two tick profit, but an advantage to laying.
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ShaunWhite
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Derek27 wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:38 pm
there's a disadvantage to backing at 4 for a one or two tick profit, but an advantage to laying.
Isn't that exactly what I said earlier about the tick sizes?
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Derek27
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:05 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:38 pm
there's a disadvantage to backing at 4 for a one or two tick profit, but an advantage to laying.
Isn't that exactly what I said earlier about the tick sizes?
Yes, but it's not the first, and certainly not the last time comments will be repeated on this forum. ;)
spreadbetting
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So seahorse believes there's resistance at those price points but Derek wants to lay at those points, think I'll stick to my own view and go with the market flow rather than think price points dictate the direction.
elofan0
Posts: 316
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i think the forex trading skills will see you well .. end of the day not many can predict a winner ..the trading indicators ie graphs do provide best guide as to were the money is going, no matter what horse , on my experience i know that the time lapse isnt real time ie split second delays .. were the refresh rate may slightly hesitate from the server.. we only work with what we are given the servers can hold things up not saying on purpose but due to high demands of information..
i have not seen any winning horse beat backing auto at 1.01 so long as lay price is 1.05 but return is poor ..
if it went pear shaped dont blame me as been ok when ive monitored it .. if we all knew what we were doing we wouldnt be here .. risk is the traders own choice of path ..i enjoy reading the forum ... so many talented people on here ..just wished id learned excel and more to be able to write my own weight of money indicators .
good luck with the venture into the racing trading world ...may your journey prove prosperous :)
threedogs
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With reference to the crossover price points I am told that some traders do nothing else but wait around those points to lay when the price is moving through and make a decent living and I suppose the disadvantage is if the price reverses you have to scratch fast or sometimes make a small loss ...
Of course you would need patience haha ...
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Derek27
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spreadbetting wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:41 am
So seahorse believes there's resistance at those price points but Derek wants to lay at those points, think I'll stick to my own view and go with the market flow rather than think price points dictate the direction.
I didn't say I want to lay at those prices, I just stated the advantage/disadvantage. It only really applies to scalping, if you're swinging there's little difference.
Original-Soultrader
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No trading yesterday (of course)

Today I traded the first race - went out for a liquid lunch with the wife, then traded the last race.

Nothing learned today really apart from both were lay trades which i'm warming to, i just get turned off by the liability and margin requirements - this too shall pass.

Last race was interesting, I really wanted to lay the fav down at low odds but just didnt see the value with the size of stake needed to turn a profit so instead i opted to lay 'Multitalented' at 8.6 and closed when it reversed at 9.2 - it went as high as 9.8 at which point i should really have closed because of the xover point. but still a profit is a profit.

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ShaunWhite
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Original-Soultrader wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:14 pm
i just get turned off by the liability and margin requirements
Your liability is no different unless you're letting your loses run further. You set your exit/stop (albeit just mentally) when you open the position (maybe 0.5% of your bank or some point where the trade has broken down) and which side is open first makes no difference. It's your exposure to the risk of systemic failure that's increased. But I assume you have a backup process waiting to go (ups, alt internet, BD account etc).

There's no margin requirement beyond your maximum liability.

Also you shouldn't be closing just because you're reaching a crossover. If it keeps going then the incremental gains only get better. You should be constantly assessing all available information rather than setting targets which (with due respect) don't appear to be based on any concrete research.
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ShaunWhite
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Re that closing at crossover thing, what you could have done is to reduce your size and lock in some profit.

Because sports markets don't have a transaction charge it's fairly std practice to modulate your sizing in accordance with your confidence far more often than you would have done in fx.

I don't know what max trade size you are using but if it was say a tenner, put your preset on 2 quid and strengthen or weaken your position as the trade progresses. Not every couple of seconds obviously but as the need arises.

Are you still so sure these markets are just like any other?
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