My Journey, day by day

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Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Mixed bag today, started off good, ended up poorly.

Image

early doors i was trading just a few races because i was concerned about the weather affecting stuff. I was watching the snooker between the races i didnt take part in - some great snooker today!

So anyway, after the losses I have decided to call it a day and just watch some more snooker and come back again tomorrow revitalised.

Took a loss on the 16:00 at ling today of 85p - I was looking to short Smiley Bagel and identified a rough area of 3.4 to get in. took the trade with around 6 minutes to go and sat waiting for the usual 5 minute rush to the favorite - clearly it never happened and for the next 5 minutes just went rangebound between 3.5 and 3.7. I didn't understand why because there was plenty money flowing. I greened up at about 30 seconds past the start time.

2nd loss of the day wiping out all the previous good fortune was at Ling in the 16:30 - again thought i'd found a nice place and took the trade on the fav at 2.9 with 6 minutes to go - watched it till the off go as high as 3.2 and then greened up at 3.25 about 30 seconds past start time. Hmmmm, need to think about this - had a chance to get out for a 67p loss about 10 seconds past the start time but thought it was coming in. Ended up losing 5.38 and wiping out the day's profit - not good.

I'm noticing that these are all fairly short races of a mile today (one exception). and these drifts may have been caused by people watching the horses struggle in the snow? dunno because i don't watch the races.

So, what can i learn from today?

Firstly i learned that when i'm right i can go for more than a couple of ticks - i had a few three and four tick trades today that continued well after the few ticks i set as a target so it may be that i'm good at spotting the start of a trend.

The mistakes I made on the losers today was 1) not waiting for my chart to be set up properley and 2) when the chart setup is correct but later invalidated get the fuck out! (easier said than done sometimes)

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Another thing i'm noticing is this - in my old forex trading when there was a breakdown then it was mostly followed by a retracement before continuing allowing me to get in at a better price - this happens less here - it does happen, but not in the last 5 minutes. It does happen 5-15 minutes out. When i see a break i sit there waiting patiently for it to come back to me to get in and it just doesn't happen. So i'm thinking that once i see a break and we are sub 5 minutes then i may just have to get in and wing it. Time will tell. I'm not ready to change anything just yet.

Constructive comments are welcome.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:52 pm
Mixed bag today, started off good, ended up poorly.

I'm noticing that these are all fairly short races of a mile today (one exception). and these drifts may have been caused by people watching the horses struggle in the snow? dunno because i don't watch the races.
? Horses haven't been running in the snow. The going has been Standard.
Are you looking at the pictures prior to the off, or just the numbers, or the snooker?
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 4:52 pm

and sat waiting for the usual 5 minute rush to the favorite
If only it were that simple. When you say 'usual' how many races have you traded to date?

You sound like you're doing a lot of predicting what might happen, I'd sugget that you'd be better off reacting to what you're looking at instead. Very little of your FX TA will apply here, psychology is probably the only transferable skill, and maybe money management (if we ignore that -£5).

Avg win 65p, average loss £3.11 ?
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Hi Shaun, nice to meet you :)

I haven't traded many races, probably a couple of hundred - Interesting that you think financial skills are not transferable, how many financial trades have you made and which financial skills do you think will not transfer well?

Regards the weather i dunno if they are in snow or not lol - i'm a numbers and a chart guy. today's mistake was not getting out when i knew i should. The charts told me that the trend had begun and i ignored it. It won't happen again (well it most likely will but maybe not for a day or so)

When trading i'm looking at the numbers and the charts, both at the same time - the snooker was for when i just though 'nah, i'll skip a few races'

The problem I have in watching the races are that first off i'm color blind so cant see which horse is which based on the shirt and to be honest at this point i'm trying very hard to keep things as simple as they can be. If it transpires that i need to watch the horses pre race then i'll bring that in at a later date - but honestly i think that anything that happens on the field will reflect in the price faster than my eyes darting from the live feed and back to the numbers. I'd sooner see the numbers and keep my eyes on them.

I believe that everything in a market is shown in the numbers and the charts (which are the numbers anyway) - it's all about human emotion which is something i do have a good handle on when it comes to trading. to say that the skills aren't transferable from forex i beg to differ. it's all about fear and greed. My challenge is adjusting to a market that has a finite trading time - this of course heightens human emotions and puts the pressure on. I also have to learn to choose the races that suit my trading style. - that will be quite a learning curve i'm sure.

you're right when you said the psychology is a transferable skill - but trading anything is all psychology and very little else. can i buy this and sell it later for a profit? is the question every trader is asking. What we can't prepare for is the black swan, those things that come along that no-one can predict like the loon that decides to lay 20k.

I'm sure many will think that i'm a mug or a moron. time will tell if that's correct - and it could well be!
Halliday
Posts: 460
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:40 pm

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:37 pm
Hi Shaun, nice to meet you :)

I haven't traded many races, probably a couple of hundred - Interesting that you think financial skills are not transferable, how many financial trades have you made and which financial skills do you think will not transfer well?

Regards the weather i dunno if they are in snow or not lol - i'm a numbers and a chart guy. today's mistake was not getting out when i knew i should. The charts told me that the trend had begun and i ignored it. It won't happen again (well it most likely will but maybe not for a day or so)

When trading i'm looking at the numbers and the charts, both at the same time - the snooker was for when i just though 'nah, i'll skip a few races'

The problem I have in watching the races are that first off i'm color blind so cant see which horse is which based on the shirt and to be honest at this point i'm trying very hard to keep things as simple as they can be. If it transpires that i need to watch the horses pre race then i'll bring that in at a later date - but honestly i think that anything that happens on the field will reflect in the price faster than my eyes darting from the live feed and back to the numbers. I'd sooner see the numbers and keep my eyes on them.

I believe that everything in a market is shown in the numbers and the charts (which are the numbers anyway) - it's all about human emotion which is something i do have a good handle on when it comes to trading. to say that the skills aren't transferable from forex i beg to differ. it's all about fear and greed. My challenge is adjusting to a market that has a finite trading time - this of course heightens human emotions and puts the pressure on. I also have to learn to choose the races that suit my trading style. - that will be quite a learning curve i'm sure.

you're right when you said the psychology is a transferable skill - but trading anything is all psychology and very little else. can i buy this and sell it later for a profit? is the question every trader is asking. What we can't prepare for is the black swan, those things that come along that no-one can predict like the loon that decides to lay 20k.

I'm sure many will think that i'm a mug or a moron. time will tell if that's correct - and it could well be!
I agree that you can trade the horse racing market with very little knowledge of form,class.trainer form, draw bias , going etc

But all the above do impact on price..a lot depends on when you enter the market to trade . Certainly if your going to trade inplay you need to know the profile of the horses and their run style etc, course characteristics etc and how the race will be run

Noticeable draw bias at a meeting .. The "golden highway " at certain courses at certain times . Was the case at Lingfied and Windsor on soft going, in the past which resulted in low drawn horses being shorter than their form entitled over certain distances . Happens a lot at different courses over the season

Sudden change in going resulting say from good to soft .. resulting in soft ground horses shortening etc

Trainers or jockeys having winners in earlier races often means their rides / runners will shorten in later races ( extreme example Dettori Ascot 7)

Favouitres winning races etc

Horses tipped by the likes of Pricewise ( Tom Segal ) or Hugh Taylor invariably shorten in price

Horses playing up in the stalls etc

Trainers at certain meetings .. Mark Johnstons horses at Goodwood . Trainers are creatures of habit and target certain types of races , hit form at certain times if the year

The list is endless but if your entering the market near the off the extreme price adjustments relating to those factors should have been made

Adrian Massey has a free site which is great for crunching stats .. and Proform is good for the same and testing systems but expensive

If your interested in the horses and form etc it's fascinating .. but for some I suspect it can be a negative and result in "gambling " rather than trading and ignoring the actual market trends
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:37 pm

I haven't traded many races, probably a couple of hundred - Interesting that you think financial skills are not transferable, how many financial trades have you made and which financial skills do you think will not transfer well?

Regards the weather i dunno if they are in snow or not lol - i'm a numbers and a chart guy. today's mistake was not getting out when i knew i should. The charts told me that the trend had begun and i ignored it. It won't happen again (well it most likely will but maybe not for a day or so)

When trading i'm looking at the numbers and the charts, both at the same time - the snooker was for when i just though 'nah, i'll skip a few races'

The problem I have in watching the races are that first off i'm color blind so cant see which horse is which based on the shirt and to be honest at this point i'm trying very hard to keep things as simple as they can be. If it transpires that i need to watch the horses pre race then i'll bring that in at a later date - but honestly i think that anything that happens on the field will reflect in the price faster than my eyes darting from the live feed and back to the numbers. I'd sooner see the numbers and keep my eyes on them.
If you're simply looking at numbers/charts why have you chosen to trade horseracing as opposed to other sports? If you're a snooker buff surely that's where you should put your efforts as you may have an edge over the field depending on your knowledge of the game.

I think if you want to take it seriously live pictures are a must, being colourblind shouldn't be a problem if you're doing pre off and whilst there may be times prices react to things happening on course before you can at least you'll know why the moves are occuring and if they're likely to continue or reverse. The majority of traders will simply be at home watching the same live pictures that would be available to you so no real reason why they'll react quicker than you to anything that occurs on screen, on course exchange players are rarely there to trade.
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

LeTiss wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:57 am
and don't allow boners to distract you
A valuable piece of advice that can be applied to all kinds of situations :D
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Halliday wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:11 pm
Original-Soultrader wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:37 pm
Hi Shaun, nice to meet you :)

I haven't traded many races, probably a couple of hundred - Interesting that you think financial skills are not transferable, how many financial trades have you made and which financial skills do you think will not transfer well?

Regards the weather i dunno if they are in snow or not lol - i'm a numbers and a chart guy. today's mistake was not getting out when i knew i should. The charts told me that the trend had begun and i ignored it. It won't happen again (well it most likely will but maybe not for a day or so)

When trading i'm looking at the numbers and the charts, both at the same time - the snooker was for when i just though 'nah, i'll skip a few races'

The problem I have in watching the races are that first off i'm color blind so cant see which horse is which based on the shirt and to be honest at this point i'm trying very hard to keep things as simple as they can be. If it transpires that i need to watch the horses pre race then i'll bring that in at a later date - but honestly i think that anything that happens on the field will reflect in the price faster than my eyes darting from the live feed and back to the numbers. I'd sooner see the numbers and keep my eyes on them.

I believe that everything in a market is shown in the numbers and the charts (which are the numbers anyway) - it's all about human emotion which is something i do have a good handle on when it comes to trading. to say that the skills aren't transferable from forex i beg to differ. it's all about fear and greed. My challenge is adjusting to a market that has a finite trading time - this of course heightens human emotions and puts the pressure on. I also have to learn to choose the races that suit my trading style. - that will be quite a learning curve i'm sure.

you're right when you said the psychology is a transferable skill - but trading anything is all psychology and very little else. can i buy this and sell it later for a profit? is the question every trader is asking. What we can't prepare for is the black swan, those things that come along that no-one can predict like the loon that decides to lay 20k.

I'm sure many will think that i'm a mug or a moron. time will tell if that's correct - and it could well be!


If your interested in the horses and form etc it's fascinating .. but for some I suspect it can be a negative and result in "gambling " rather than trading and ignoring the actual market trends
Facinating halliday, not my bag tho, not interested in going in play at all.
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Trader Pat wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 6:21 pm
LeTiss wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 9:57 am
and don't allow boners to distract you
A valuable piece of advice that can be applied to all kinds of situations :D
I noticed that one late!

Damn boner lol
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am


If you're simply looking at numbers/charts why have you chosen to trade horseracing as opposed to other sports? If you're a snooker buff surely that's where you should put your efforts as you may have an edge over the field depending on your knowledge of the game.

I think if you want to take it seriously live pictures are a must, being colourblind shouldn't be a problem if you're doing pre off and whilst there may be times prices react to things happening on course before you can at least you'll know why the moves are occuring and if they're likely to continue or reverse. The majority of traders will simply be at home watching the same live pictures that would be available to you so no real reason why they'll react quicker than you to anything that occurs on screen, on course exchange players are rarely there to trade.
Hi spreadbetting (something ive done a lot!)

I chose the nags for the sheer number of opportunities and the liquidity.

I love snooker, even have a table in the garage, i did trade a match in play last week and made a tenner but found that trading it took the enjoyment of watching the match away.

Ive found so many times in life that when you turn a passion into a business opportunity that you stop enjoying the thing you were passionate about. I dont need the money so simply refuse to do it anymore with things i enjoy as the base.

If i find that i have to be glued to a racing screen and have to study form on a rolling basis to make this work then i can assure you that i wont be around for long. Experience tells me that life is too short for that shit. No one sits on their death bed saying "if only i knew more about the horses"

This is just a challenge for me. I dont need an income, i just enjoy the tussle.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 5:37 pm
I haven't traded many races, probably a couple of hundred - how many financial trades have you made ?
None, but if you want a cv I designed derivative,fx & equity trading systems from 86 till 09 and opened my bf account in 2000.

There are definately more differences than similarities. Eg every holding must be exercised on expiry, the fact that the implied odds of the entire market always equals 100, the wider variety of objectives of it's participants, zero transaction charge, low liquidity, etc etc it's a long list and they all have an impact.

Trading without pictures is like trading without Bloomberg & Reuters. You might be happy to get out after the market has jumped 10 ticks on an incident going down but it's better to get in the queue asap and mitigate the loss or just as often, capitalise. Being from FX you'll know that every nanosecond counts (incidentally my bro-in-law is currently optimising fx trading at Morgan Stanley and their project target is measured in nanoseconds.....he's also just hired an ex-bf data analyst so I'm hoping for some more interesting conversations soon :) ).

Watching the chart for a single runner will only tell you half of the picture and besides, charts are history. If the answers were in the charts, chances are you couldn't capitalise anyway. People have poured huge resourses at this business and with the market liquidity being relatively tiny you won't be one of the fastest fingers if it's predictable from publicly available data sources, something you seem to accept when it comes to course video and news. Live indicators are the key.

I know you're not a 'horse' person, me neither, but fyi jockeys wear silks not shirts and it's a course rather than a field. ;)

As you're only trading for fun then psychology won't be an issue so your strongest asset is probably risk manangement.

Please don't take all that as being negative, it's not supposed to be. I didn't spend 10 minutes typing that just to have a pop at you. People arrive at trading from many places, financials, backing, poker, the love of horses, a love of stats...many places, and although they're all good grounding it's more important to see the differences than it is to make it fit what you already know.

ps don't worry about being colourblind (strange you love snooker so much), they all wear numbers and the silks are different patterns not just colours......geez why am I telling you that, you're not an idiot.....I'm sure you're capable of having the free BF video feed on a screen somewhere and figuring it out. Delay is about 2s which is good for a freebie considering RUK's delay is about 6-8s and ATR's is about an hour and a half.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:56 pm
If i find that i have to be glued to a racing screen.....Experience tells me that life is too short for that shit.
I just saw this bit :shock:

How long do you think this is going to take before you've cracked it? Received wisdom says your 200 markets puts you under 2% progress. Are you prepared to put in the graft? Remember there's seasonality to consider too, those days when the horses run in flip-flops instead of wellies ;) .
Halliday
Posts: 460
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:40 pm

"If i find that i have to be glued to a racing screen and have to study form on a rolling basis to make this work then i can assure you that i wont be around for long. Experience tells me that life is too short for that shit. No one sits on their death bed saying "if only i knew more about the horses"


Tend to agree with Shaun about some of your comments( some quoted above ) ... You were asking about the class of races in a different thread, yet you say you've no interest in being "glued" to a racing screen , and from the above comment have no interest in learning more about the horses, and from your comments dont even know what surface the horses are running on or some of the basic terminology.. It does help believe me !!

I would say having a passion for and a knowledge of a sport is a plus rather than a negative when it comes to trading , there's very few people would find it a negative or a " turn off as you appear to

I'd much rather trade and enjoy the racing ( with live pictures ) rather than be solely "glued" as you put it to a trading screen looking at charts ..with little or no interest in the sport I'm trading .
Knowledge of the horses and trainer profiles , course characteristics , draw bias etc .. change of stables, first time headgear,etc can be a big factor in deciding which horses to trade etc ...especially if your opening trade is always going to be a back bet

As Shaun said there's lots of reasons people turn to trading .. to make money ( hopefully !!) enjoyment of the sport , crunching stats etc ..
you don't appear to fall into any of those categories

Good luck but if you don't need an income from it , don't have a passion for or desire for knowledge of the sport your trading,don't want to be sat in front of a screen all day ( racing or trading no difference ) .. Then it ain't going to be much fun for you .. challenge or no challenge

The more you enjoy something the more successful you can be .. and if you don't enjoy it don't do it .

P.s if your colourblind .. sure you'd find it easier to watch the racing then the snooker( that's an odd one ) ... and you'd learn an awful lot from watching some if not all of the days racing ... maybe watch the previous day's racing on ATR via the app ( free to watch ) you might enjoy it .. oh and you do get audio commentaries.

Good look and enjoy what your doing ..it does help
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:23 am
Original-Soultrader wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 8:56 pm
If i find that i have to be glued to a racing screen.....Experience tells me that life is too short for that shit.
I just saw this bit :shock:

How long do you think this is going to take before you've cracked it? Received wisdom says your 200 markets puts you under 2% progress. Are you prepared to put in the graft? Remember there's seasonality to consider too, those days when the horses run in flip-flops instead of wellies ;) .
I like the fact he can happily make references to shit after a serious bowel operation.

However, that would suggest he may get bored of this game. It requires patience and diligence. It looks as though he has had significant success elsewhere, and recent events in life is making him feel that he hasn't got time to waste it on mundane things
threedogs
Posts: 79
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:24 am

How many people can remember watching snooker many years ago and the commentator said " For those of you who are still on black and white pictures the pink ball is the one just behind the green ......."
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