My Journey, day by day

[ShaunWhite]

I haven't traded many races, probably a couple of hundred - how many financial trades have you made ?

None, but if you want a cv I designed derivative,fx & equity trading systems from 86 till 09 and opened my bf account in 2000.

There are definately more differences than similarities. Eg every holding must be exercised on expiry, the fact that the implied odds of the entire market always equals 100, the wider variety of objectives of it's participants, zero transaction charge, low liquidity, etc etc it's a long list and they all have an impact.

Trading without pictures is like trading without Bloomberg & Reuters. You might be happy to get out after the market has jumped 10 ticks on an incident going down but it's better to get in the queue asap and mitigate the loss or just as often, capitalise. Being from FX you'll know that every nanosecond counts (incidentally my bro-in-law is currently optimising fx trading at Morgan Stanley and their project target is measured in nanoseconds.....he's also just hired an ex-bf data analyst so I'm hoping for some more interesting conversations soon ).

Watching the chart for a single runner will only tell you half of the picture and besides, charts are history. If the answers were in the charts, chances are you couldn't capitalise anyway. People have poured huge resourses at this business and with the market liquidity being relatively tiny you won't be one of the fastest fingers if it's predictable from publicly available data sources, something you seem to accept when it comes to course video and news. Live indicators are the key.

I know you're not a 'horse' person, me neither, but fyi jockeys wear silks not shirts and it's a course rather than a field.

As you're only trading for fun then psychology won't be an issue so your strongest asset is probably risk manangement.

Please don't take all that as being negative, it's not supposed to be. I didn't spend 10 minutes typing that just to have a pop at you. People arrive at trading from many places, financials, backing, poker, the love of horses, a love of stats...many places, and although they're all good grounding it's more important to see the differences than it is to make it fit what you already know.

ps don't worry about being colourblind (strange you love snooker so much), they all wear numbers and the silks are different patterns not just colours......geez why am I telling you that, you're not an idiot.....I'm sure you're capable of having the free BF video feed on a screen somewhere and figuring it out. Delay is about 2s which is good for a freebie considering RUK's delay is about 6-8s and ATR's is about an hour and a half.

[ShaunWhite]

If i find that i have to be glued to a racing screen.....Experience tells me that life is too short for that shit.

I just saw this bit

How long do you think this is going to take before you've cracked it? Received wisdom says your 200 markets puts you under 2% progress. Are you prepared to put in the graft? Remember there's seasonality to consider too, those days when the horses run in flip-flops instead of wellies .

[Halliday]

"If i find that i have to be glued to a racing screen and have to study form on a rolling basis to make this work then i can assure you that i wont be around for long. Experience tells me that life is too short for that shit. No one sits on their death bed saying "if only i knew more about the horses"


Tend to agree with Shaun about some of your comments( some quoted above ) ... You were asking about the class of races in a different thread, yet you say you've no interest in being "glued" to a racing screen , and from the above comment have no interest in learning more about the horses, and from your comments dont even know what surface the horses are running on or some of the basic terminology.. It does help believe me !!

I would say having a passion for and a knowledge of a sport is a plus rather than a negative when it comes to trading , there's very few people would find it a negative or a " turn off as you appear to

I'd much rather trade and enjoy the racing ( with live pictures ) rather than be solely "glued" as you put it to a trading screen looking at charts ..with little or no interest in the sport I'm trading .
Knowledge of the horses and trainer profiles , course characteristics , draw bias etc .. change of stables, first time headgear,etc can be a big factor in deciding which horses to trade etc ...especially if your opening trade is always going to be a back bet

As Shaun said there's lots of reasons people turn to trading .. to make money ( hopefully !!) enjoyment of the sport , crunching stats etc ..
you don't appear to fall into any of those categories

Good luck but if you don't need an income from it , don't have a passion for or desire for knowledge of the sport your trading,don't want to be sat in front of a screen all day ( racing or trading no difference ) .. Then it ain't going to be much fun for you .. challenge or no challenge

The more you enjoy something the more successful you can be .. and if you don't enjoy it don't do it .

P.s if your colourblind .. sure you'd find it easier to watch the racing then the snooker( that's an odd one ) ... and you'd learn an awful lot from watching some if not all of the days racing ... maybe watch the previous day's racing on ATR via the app ( free to watch ) you might enjoy it .. oh and you do get audio commentaries.

Good look and enjoy what your doing ..it does help

[LeTiss]

If i find that i have to be glued to a racing screen.....Experience tells me that life is too short for that shit.

I just saw this bit

How long do you think this is going to take before you've cracked it? Received wisdom says your 200 markets puts you under 2% progress. Are you prepared to put in the graft? Remember there's seasonality to consider too, those days when the horses run in flip-flops instead of wellies .

I like the fact he can happily make references to shit after a serious bowel operation.

However, that would suggest he may get bored of this game. It requires patience and diligence. It looks as though he has had significant success elsewhere, and recent events in life is making him feel that he hasn't got time to waste it on mundane things

[threedogs]

How many people can remember watching snooker many years ago and the commentator said " For those of you who are still on black and white pictures the pink ball is the one just behind the green ......."

[Halliday]

How many people can remember watching snooker many years ago and the commentator said " For those of you who are still on black and white pictures the pink ball is the one just behind the green ......."

Probably Ted Lowe who also said ...."A little pale in the face, but then his name is White"

[Original-Soultrader]

Morning all, some great comments today lets go through some of the points.

Hi Shaun, I do appreciate your candor, and i don't want your CV I know you're not having a pop.

Interested to know how you designed systems without actually trading - that sounds like a very interesting conversation. I never bothered with bloomberg and reuters by the way my method never relied on nanoseconds - it sounds like you were a quant guy yes? - the thing that killed trading lol

I'm not watching a single runner, but i do focus on the first three. Charts are indeed history - but you all (mostly) watch them so you are all doing some TA in one form or another. People think that history repeats itself, and it often does - otherwise there would be no use for charts at all - what i'm doing is trying to find places where the masses think it will go one way but the (presumably) smart money has other plans for it - in this I may be very wrong and it could turn out that the participants are not advanced in that way as they are in financial markets.

One thing i'm really interested in is to see if there are stop hunting opportunities. if you wanted to back a market with big money then knowing where the stops are from the layers would be a massive advantage to get your money in fast. with a ladder you can see the money but only 3 ticks up and down yes? - the WOM only counts the 3 ticks (I think) and outside of that 3 ticks up and down the numbers don't change until it gets within 3 ticks - am i wrong on this?

There were quite a few comments on the colour blindness and snooker - anyone who is color blind (apart from those with complete cb) will tell you we still see colours but there are shades and things that we can't differentiate. I have a red/green deficiency - with snooker i can tell all the balls but cannot differentiate between red and brown if there is more than 2 inches between them. Most often watching professional snooker the brown is on its spot and when i play myself i have an orange ball as used in snooker plus - i replace the brown with this and no-one seems to mind.

your question as to 'am i prepared to put in the graft' - well no, not really. LOL

this will be hugely entertaining for you to watch me blow up, all the neggies in here can laugh and say to themselves "knew this was going to happen" and feel all smug.

I have around six months to a year to get over this bastard called cancer - another operation to come with a ileostomy reversal which again has a significant recovery time. after that I'm going to spend some of my hard earned cash enjoying life, travelling and doing silly things. This betfair lark is a stop gap for me for something to do. I don't take anything seriously anymore. But you may find that I surprise you and clean up (i know, everyone thinks they are special) In the past i've been successful at most things i've done - with forex trading it took me two years and about £10k in the 'tuition fees' - in year 3 i made six figures and in year 4 i was trading a small New York based fund of $17m. After the credit crunch I ran a radio station and sold over a million in advertising as well as presenting shows (something i loved from the age of 18)

after 4 years of that i got vocal cancer - couldn't talk for a year, couldnt sell, couldnt present - i thought "how can i make money with no voice" i was 48yrs old and everything i had ever done was vocal - mainly selling.

I started to write books - no voice needed right? i wrote 22 titles in a year which made the grand total of £1k a month - pathetic. then I came across t-shirts and the rest is history - in 2013/14/15 I was one of the biggest sellers of t-shirts in the USA selling over $4m dollars worth to date. then i got cancer again and here I am.

I tell this just to give you an idea that i'm not your typical mug. I can assimilate more in a week than most can in a month. and if I don't find that i'm having fun with this then i'll just pack it in and go do something else - smart money knows when it's time to quit right?

Halliday thanks again for commenting - i like you.

I was asking about the classes of races in the other thread in an attempt to do less work not more. I believe that the quality of questions we ask ourselves has a large bearing in the answers we find. The question i've asked for many years has been "how can i make more money by doing less" - it's worked well so far with me automating my other businesses. Finding out the class of races will enable me to focus on the one's that matter and just not even bother on the ones that dont. - more money - doing less.

Now i know i said that i'm not doing this for the money - but it's the only way to measure success in this arena.

regarding the category of "why i'm doing this" - it's just pretty plain - 'something to do that challenges me' sure i could do crosswords, video games, whatever - but i need a REAL challenge and i'm sure you will agree that BF trading fits into that category.

so yes, i guess in many people's book on here i will be seen as a 'mugpunter' or a 'sucker'

That's fine, come take my money I'm just getting warmed up.

PS - If you had a 100k account - would you be tempted to fuck with the market and just have some fun? It seems to be that it would be easy to manipulate this thing - of course getting out would be the problem but i do hear a lot of talk about the 'manipulators' - i have the funds to do that so it could be fun! - discuss.

[Black Ice]

Hi Soultrader! Am following your journey with great interest! I say 'good on you' especially with the dire health problems you have had. I am a 'horse person'..having ridden them and raced them for some 40 years all told...but am definitely not a 'numbers & charts person'...which is probably why I'm making such slow progress trading after 2+ years...coming from a backing background i gather doesn't help either. In fact I'm seriously thinking of switching to tennis...though i shall probably try to crack it for one more flat season. Off skiing tomorrow...but as a couple of people have already told me...I might as well have stayed here and skiid down Warren Hill in Newmarket!!! Anyway..just wanted to add my pennysworth and say i shall catch up on your very interesting thread when i get back. Hope you succeed as you did with forex!

[ShaunWhite]

Manipulation? Good luck with that, unless you have a thorough understanding of true value you stand a real good chance of being hammered by value seekers. Just because horses don't have the qudos of financials, don't underestimate the participants.

Also you are keen to point out that you're a smart guy.... As in financials that's no guarantee of success, most traders I knew could barely tie their shoe laces, fund managers and analysts are where the brains are.

Yes I did design systems without ever trading, much like Adrian Newey designs F1 cars without being a driver.

[Original-Soultrader]

I get that Shaun, was just asking the question about manipulation, doesn't mean i actually want to do it

Why didn't you ever use the systems you devised yourself?

[ruthlessimon]

Sorry to hear about the health issues, but they do bring up an interesting point.

The callousness (& fairness) of markets

A guy could put in over 100,000hrs learning to trade - blow his marriage - blow his house - (literally have nothing to show for the effort) & the market doesn't give a toss! That's something incredibly difficult to deal with psychologically - knowing it could all be for nothing/worse.

[Derek27]

PS - If you had a 100k account - would you be tempted to fuck with the market and just have some fun? It seems to be that it would be easy to manipulate this thing - of course getting out would be the problem but i do hear a lot of talk about the 'manipulators' - i have the funds to do that so it could be fun! - discuss.

It all depends on how one acquired the 100K!

Most strategies work to small stakes and if successful can get scaled up. You have to be very careful about adopting a strategy that requires big money from the outset, without the opportunity to test it. It may have worked well in the early days of the exchange but these days a £5K order can be taken in one go by a genuine gambler or trader.

[Halliday]

"this will be hugely entertaining for you to watch me blow up, all the neggies in here can laugh and say to themselves "knew this was going to happen" and feel all smug"

There might be a few like that and posting p/l is always a divisive issue. I personally don't see the need for it, especially when so many screenshots aren't genuine( and there's been a lot on here ) , and are taken with a pinch of salt by most

And it does put pressure on your trading ( maybe not in your case) , but I'd seriously think about not doing it, especially in your case as you say it's not about the money and you don't want to put the graft in. So your p/l ain't going to be motivation to others

And to many it will just seem to be case if " look at me " aren't I clever " ..your posts are interesting enough without p/l and as I say no need for it... especially in your case as your constantly telling us how sucessful you are and how you could put 100k in to manipulate the markets etc ..


I personally just like people to enjoy their trading and hopefully see it as a means to enjoying life .. rather than it be all consuming and taking over their life

[spreadbetting]

Hi spreadbetting (something ive done a lot!)

I chose the nags for the sheer number of opportunities and the liquidity.

I love snooker, even have a table in the garage, i did trade a match in play last week and made a tenner but found that trading it took the enjoyment of watching the match away.

Ive found so many times in life that when you turn a passion into a business opportunity that you stop enjoying the thing you were passionate about. I dont need the money so simply refuse to do it anymore with things i enjoy as the base.

If i find that i have to be glued to a racing screen and have to study form on a rolling basis to make this work then i can assure you that i wont be around for long. Experience tells me that life is too short for that shit. No one sits on their death bed saying "if only i knew more about the horses"

This is just a challenge for me. I dont need an income, i just enjoy the tussle.

Re: the nags, markets don't equal opportunities and as long as the market has enough liquidity to close you'll be fine. Might be a problem if you're playing the dogs but football,tennis, cricket etc are around the clock and each market will throw up hundreds of opportunities and plenty of available liquidity.

I'd agree life's too short to study form as it's certainly not needed to trade sucessfully if anything it was a hinderance for me as it can make you overestimate a runners chances causing you to hold onto positions far too long. I take my hat off to anyone who can make it pay by gambling on their form choices certainly know I couldn't.

I know you'll see this as not being CONSTRUCTIVE i.e. not the advice you want to hear, but I think you're doomed to fail with the attitude you're approaching the markets with. You're continually telling us you don't need the money after selling over $4M in t-shirts (not sure that'd be one of the bggest sellers in the US, tbh) and how successful you are. I just don't think you seem to have the same hunger for this especially after a big operation and the need to acheive just isn't there.

I used to be in a decent paying job before going full time and large losses made no difference to me, it was only when I needed to earn money thru trading that I put in the effort required to win. Good luck with it but like you said earlier, life's too short, I think if I was in your position I'd have a lot better things to do with my time and money than learn to trade the nags

[ShaunWhite]

Why didn't you ever use the systems you devised yourself?

Because frankly the whole world of financials and the people involved in it bores me to tears. I was on more than enough money without making my life even more dull. I 'retired' at 48, as you say, life's too short to do things you don't enjoy. Working hard for the first 50% and busking the rest was always the plan.

If you don't need the money maybe you should spend the time learning something useful?