Please can you help me? I am close to depression

[Lucacrebbe]

There is always a solution for the smartest ones!

The real genius is the man who layed Azarenka at 1.09

My dream is to became that kind of guy, more and more

The thing is Luca, laying at 1.09 can be a brilliant strategy, but only when there is a reason behind it. Laying blindly whether at low odds or not will soon result in losing your bank.

yes, obviously.

There must always been some kind of brainstorming behind any choise you make it.

[Derek27]

Anyway, even in case there would have been not money to back at the price of 13 or 20, you can always lay down, '' all the way long '' the favourite

People who have layed Azarenka at 1,09 and kept the trade until the end

In Betfair it's easy to see even 20' 000 in back / lay side when the favourite is under the price of 1.10

In this scenario, a laying bet of 20k on the favourite (risking 900$) would have yeld you the profit.

There is always a solution for the smartest ones!

The real genius is the man who layed Azarenka at 1.09

My dream is to became that kind of guy, more and more

We have already been through this Luca, the problem is you are not one of the smarter ones - you would have backed that girl at 1.05 and someone else would have had your money.

No real money tought, in that occasion.

But if you had access to betfair.com and could bet with real money, how much would you have lost?

$1,000, $5,000, $10,000?

How many months would it take you to recover your losses and how many similar mistakes would you make?

I started trading because I saw potential to make money but never had any firm idea of how much I could make until it started happening. Even when I was breaking even in the early days I realised I just need to improve to make a decent profit. If you talk too much about how much you could/will make, before you've even started trading on liquid markets you are letting greed get the better of you. Greed is the downfall of many men, and traders.

[ShaunWhite]

The 2% risking rule is a joke. There is no fixed ammount you have to bet / trade.

If you feel confident you can go all in. If semi-confident, reduce the stake... If not confident, use the ammount you are willing to lose and it won't hurt in case you lose it.

The total experience from people helping you here adds up to over 100 years. When you say that advice is 'a joke', it's very disprespectful.

But.....
The 2% risk does not stop you going all in.

It means that you will set your stop loss at 2% of your bank.
Stake 1/2 your bank and have a stop loss at 4% and the risk is 2%.
Stake 1/4 of the bank and have a stop loss at 8% and the risk is 2%.
etc

Remember you also need some of your bank on a different exchange account ready for when betfair.it crashes and you need to close your position. Yes a small risk but it happens if you trade all year and it will wipe you out.

The amount you are willing to lose has little to do with the amount you stake. This is not betting.

On the example of the 20k @ 1.09 lay.
You put $20,000 down at 1.09

You know that if the favourite wins the point it will go to 1.05
You know that if the favourite loses the point it will go to 1.25

You chose to put your stop loss at 1.08

so...
If the favourite wins the point, the stop loss will trigger at 1.08. And you will get matched between 1.08 and 1.05 depending on your speed.
You make a loss between -$185 and -$760.

If the weak player wins the point, it goes to 1.25 you are showing an unrealised profit of $2560.
You might chose to continue and if the weak player wins you profit $20k.
You might chose to 'cash out' and quit, or repeat the trade again if it goes to 1.09 a second time.
You don't think the recovery will continue? ... Then you might chose to 'cash out' and bet at 1.25, with a stop loss at 1.3 ( a 5 tick risk)

If you do nothing and the favourite comes back to win, the most you lose is between -185 and -760.

Laying 20,000 @ 1.09 is NOT a $1800 risk, it's a $1800 liability. The risk depends on where you put your stop.

--------------------------
I also question your income calc, yes 10%/month RoI is very possible, but it is a very low target.

How many trades do you think you will do a month....10 ? To make 10% a month ROI you only need to make 1% per trade.....that is tiny!

For you let's target 5% per trade....tennis has big swings, 5% is still quite small.

If you make 10 trades per month at $500 avg per trade x 5% per trade. That is $250. You would call that 50% RoI !

On horses I make maybe 2 trades per race, 25 races per day, 25 days a month. That is 1250 trades per month. You are trying to make money on a very small number of trades!... tennis markets aren't usually many many times bigger than horse markets.

...why am i doing this, talking to myself and a complete waste of time probably.

[Derek27]

...why am i doing this, talking to myself and a complete waste of time probably.

If the person you're talking to doesn't take any notice, other newbies might benefit from the information.

[Autolearner]

This thread is the gift that keeps on giving!!

Speaking as a Newbie, can I just take this opportunity to thank Derek, Shaun, Dallas et al for your generosity of spirit and helpfulness for the excellent advice and insights both on this thread and indeed throughout the forum.

On this particular thread it is not entirely clear that the intended recipient is maximising the potential of your many thoughtful and useful posts, but I am sure there are many others (including me) who are benefitting. Thank you one and all!

[Black Ice]

+1

[Derek27]

Thanks Autolearner, and welcome to the forum.

[ShaunWhite]

(thx for the appreciation guys)

Must say that I think this comment from Dallas is up there in my top 5 all-time favourite comments.

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[RonObvious]

This thread is the gift that keeps on giving!!

Speaking as a Newbie, can I just take this opportunity to thank Derek, Shaun, Dallas et al for your generosity of spirit and helpfulness for the excellent advice and insights both on this thread and indeed throughout the forum.

On this particular thread it is not entirely clear that the intended recipient is maximising the potential of your many thoughtful and useful posts, but I am sure there are many others (including me) who are benefitting. Thank you one and all!

Fully echo this.

[Derek27]

(thx for the appreciation guys)

Must say that I think this comment from Dallas is up there in my top 5 all-time favourite comments.

...............................,-~*`¯lllllll`*~,............................................. .....
...........................,-~*`lllllllllllllllllllllllllll¯`*-,..........................................
......................,-~*llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll*-,......................................
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.................\lllllllllllllllllllll,-*.............`~-~-,...(.(¯`*,`,...............................
...................\llllllllllll,-~*........................)_-\..*`*;..)..............................
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........................f`-,........`-,/...*-,___,,-~*.....,-*......|....`-,...............\.......

+1

I was travelling for Easter yesterday, viewed it on my smartphone and wondered what the hell it was. It was only when I turned my smartphone sideways that I could actually see it.

[ShaunWhite]

It was only when I turned my smartphone sideways that I could actually see it.

Very nostalgic. Reminds me of the days when I was a "continuous stationary and computer disk" salesbod when I left school. 8" disks and multi part paper with carbon paper between the copies! Printed quite a few door sized ascii art pics on customers' printers. The old chain printers at British Sugar would catch the output in a box 6 feet away cos it streamed out so fast! Mindblowing for an 18yo kid when every printer I'd seen did about 10 characters a second.

[Derek27]

At some point Steaphens was priced 20

I would have been backing her at 13,50... 1000$...

13.5 is the equivalent of laying Azarenka at 1.08.

I've just noticed Azarenka was laid at 1.05 for $7k (presumably when Stephens peaked), and 1.08 for $1k.

Laying Azarenka for $1000 at 1.05 is the equivalent of a $50 bet on Stephens at 21. So you did have the potential opportunity to make $1000 on betfair.it if you are confident you would have place that bet.

I don't know if cross-matching occurs on betfair.it but it's possible the money matched at 21 was cross-matched - all the action in tennis is focused on the favourite.

[Lucacrebbe]

At some point Steaphens was priced 20

I would have been backing her at 13,50... 1000$...

13.5 is the equivalent of laying Azarenka at 1.08.

I've just noticed Azarenka was laid at 1.05 for $7k (presumably when Stephens peaked), and 1.08 for $1k.

Laying Azarenka for $1000 at 1.05 is the equivalent of a $50 bet on Stephens at 21. So you did have the potential opportunity to make $1000 on betfair.it if you are confident you would have place that bet.

I don't know if cross-matching occurs on betfair.it but it's possible the money matched at 21 was cross-matched - all the action in tennis is focused on the favourite.

Dereck I don't understand what is cross matching, could you please explaine it to me?
I have never heard it about

[ShaunWhite]

viewtopic.php?t=11066

I hope you are starting to realise that you don't even know enough yet to understand how much you still need to learn.

Like all subjects, the more you know, the more you realise you don't know.

[Derek27]

I am going to live in Germany (not because of Betfair).

Will be able to bet on Betfair.com from there?

If your going to Germany you can't place bets on the exchange anyway, Betfair only operate their sportsbook there

Do you know if Sports Book bets in such countries get chucked onto the UK exchange?

The reason I ask is that there's been some crazy back bets placed at Rosehill, a good 5-6 ticks below best price, which might be explained by Sports Book punters who don't have access to the exchange?