Trading IR without pictures is, IMO, a foolish pursuit. Agree with other statements that an understanding of form, race shape and who is likely to lead/be held up - proform can be useful for this - are all essential.
However, understanding what is going on during the race is vital. For example, when a horse is ridden along, the market will react to this. If you don't have TV/betfair pictures, how would you know that is causing a runner to drift?
in running trading horses
- BetScalper
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On certain races in-running, if the Back Book% > 130 and the favourites LTP > Lay_Price + 10 ticks, then its a fairly good indication that the favourite is struggling as the 2nd/3rd favourites price is very close and the backers are scrambling to remove their money from the favourite.arbitrage16 wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 11:17 amTrading IR without pictures is, IMO, a foolish pursuit. Agree with other statements that an understanding of form, race shape and who is likely to lead/be held up - proform can be useful for this - are all essential.
However, understanding what is going on during the race is vital. For example, when a horse is ridden along, the market will react to this. If you don't have TV/betfair pictures, how would you know that is causing a runner to drift?
Works best on races over 2 miles. Could possibly work on shorter races but you wouldn't be able to get the bets in quick enough.
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I'm sure that is an indicator. But the pictures tell you the same thing, as well as who is running well and thus likely to be supported instead. Seems to me an over-complication, but keen to understand what the advantage of that method is. Thanks.BetScalper wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 12:04 pmOn certain races in-running, if the Back Book% > 130 and the favourites LTP > Lay_Price + 10 ticks, then its a fairly good indication that the favourite is struggling as the 2nd/3rd favourites price is very close and the backers are scrambling to remove their money from the favourite.arbitrage16 wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 11:17 amTrading IR without pictures is, IMO, a foolish pursuit. Agree with other statements that an understanding of form, race shape and who is likely to lead/be held up - proform can be useful for this - are all essential.
However, understanding what is going on during the race is vital. For example, when a horse is ridden along, the market will react to this. If you don't have TV/betfair pictures, how would you know that is causing a runner to drift?
Works best on races over 2 miles. Could possibly work on shorter races but you wouldn't be able to get the bets in quick enough.
- BetScalper
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
It was part of a Betfair blog article Peter wrote awhile back when he was showing the in-play trader option on horses.arbitrage16 wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 1:10 pmI'm sure that is an indicator. But the pictures tell you the same thing, as well as who is running well and thus likely to be supported instead. Seems to me an over-complication, but keen to understand what the advantage of that method is. Thanks.BetScalper wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 12:04 pmOn certain races in-running, if the Back Book% > 130 and the favourites LTP > Lay_Price + 10 ticks, then its a fairly good indication that the favourite is struggling as the 2nd/3rd favourites price is very close and the backers are scrambling to remove their money from the favourite.arbitrage16 wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 11:17 amTrading IR without pictures is, IMO, a foolish pursuit. Agree with other statements that an understanding of form, race shape and who is likely to lead/be held up - proform can be useful for this - are all essential.
However, understanding what is going on during the race is vital. For example, when a horse is ridden along, the market will react to this. If you don't have TV/betfair pictures, how would you know that is causing a runner to drift?
Works best on races over 2 miles. Could possibly work on shorter races but you wouldn't be able to get the bets in quick enough.
He suggested the reverse whereby if the favourites LTP < Back_Price - 10 ticks indicated the layers couldn't remove their money quick enough. Although I am not sure I would implement such on jump racing etc.
If anyone wanted to automate this there is an automation file that uses the new stored values available in the shared files section to do this type of tradeBetScalper wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 12:04 pmOn certain races in-running, if the Back Book% > 130 and the favourites LTP > Lay_Price + 10 ticks, then its a fairly good indication that the favourite is struggling as the 2nd/3rd favourites price is very close and the backers are scrambling to remove their money from the favourite.arbitrage16 wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 11:17 amTrading IR without pictures is, IMO, a foolish pursuit. Agree with other statements that an understanding of form, race shape and who is likely to lead/be held up - proform can be useful for this - are all essential.
However, understanding what is going on during the race is vital. For example, when a horse is ridden along, the market will react to this. If you don't have TV/betfair pictures, how would you know that is causing a runner to drift?
Works best on races over 2 miles. Could possibly work on shorter races but you wouldn't be able to get the bets in quick enough.
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