Steamers & Drifters

[firlandsfarm]

I would be interested to hear what people consider to be a Steamer or Drifter. Nobody would consider a horse that comes in by 1 tick to be a Steamer and you won't ever get a horse coming in by 350ticks! So where does the definition lie with you.

How much does a horse need to come in/go out and over what period of time?

How would you base the movement? Ticks? Hard price? Percentage price?

And over what period of time? 1 minute? 10 minutes? 1 Hour? Longer?

Also how much does a Steamer/Drifter affect your view of the market ... Do you think differently if the opposite move is spread over the rest of the field than being more influential on the price of 1 or 2 other runners.

Just something to maybe discuss.

[Euler]

I look at % movement of IP

[firlandsfarm]

I look at % movement of IP

Sorry Euler but don't understand ... "IP"? Not In-Play!

And care to share the degree of %?

[sa7med]

I look at % movement of IP

Sorry Euler but don't understand ... "IP"? Not In-Play!

And care to share the degree of %?

Implied probability > (1/odds)*100

Curious though, what advantage does this have over just looking at percent change in odds?

[jimibt]

I look at % movement of IP

Sorry Euler but don't understand ... "IP"? Not In-Play!

And care to share the degree of %?

Implied probability > (1/odds)*100

Curious though, what advantage does this have over just looking at percent change in odds?

boxing everything into the same common currency (despite odds being the same currency, they vary widely from 1.01 to 1000 odds, so do not show change inside scale very well) means that you more easily determine inter-related moves between runners, even if their odds are fairly widely apart.

i've said it many times on here, but think of it as pistons on a crankshaft, by having the same restraint (the crankshaft and limited length of the piston), you can more easily identify when one runner is moving in one direction or the other. couple that with min/max book% to create outer limits and you have yourself a nice little constrained system...

it might look a bit like this:

book-perc-etc.PNG

[sa7med]

Sorry Euler but don't understand ... "IP"? Not In-Play!

And care to share the degree of %?

Implied probability > (1/odds)*100

Curious though, what advantage does this have over just looking at percent change in odds?

boxing everything into the same common currency (despite odds being the same currency, they vary widely from 1.01 to 1000 odds, so do not show change inside scale very well) means that you more easily determine inter-related moves between runners, even if their odds are fairly widely apart.

i've said it many times on here, but think of it as pistons on a crankshaft, by having the same restraint (the crankshaft and limited length of the piston), you can more easily identify when one runner is moving in one direction or the other. couple that with min/max book% to create outer limits and you have yourself a nice little constrained system...

it might look a bit like this:

book-perc-etc.PNG

Makes sense, thanks for your thoughtful response

[Euler]

Jim has summarised it nicely.

[firlandsfarm]

Ah, OK, thanks sa7med ... I know implied prob, just never associated it with "IP" And I agree, I thought of putting Probability as an option but couldn't see the difference to Odds as the change in IP is a calculation of Odds.

[firlandsfarm]

boxing everything into the same common currency (despite odds being the same currency, they vary widely from 1.01 to 1000 odds, so do not show change inside scale very well) means that you more easily determine inter-related moves between runners, even if their odds are fairly widely apart.

i've said it many times on here, but think of it as pistons on a crankshaft, by having the same restraint (the crankshaft and limited length of the piston), you can more easily identify when one runner is moving in one direction or the other. couple that with min/max book% to create outer limits and you have yourself a nice little constrained system...

it might look a bit like this:

book-perc-etc.PNG

OK, so it's a presentational preference but ... how much change before it becomes a Steamer/Drifter?

[jimibt]

boxing everything into the same common currency (despite odds being the same currency, they vary widely from 1.01 to 1000 odds, so do not show change inside scale very well) means that you more easily determine inter-related moves between runners, even if their odds are fairly widely apart.

i've said it many times on here, but think of it as pistons on a crankshaft, by having the same restraint (the crankshaft and limited length of the piston), you can more easily identify when one runner is moving in one direction or the other. couple that with min/max book% to create outer limits and you have yourself a nice little constrained system...

it might look a bit like this:

book-perc-etc.PNG

OK, so it's a presentational preference but ... how much change before it becomes a Steamer/Drifter?

ok, i literally eyeball it to ascertain that runner A is going in one direction and runner B is going 'tother. this is pretty easy to establish by storing the data from about 10 minutes out and actioning any confirmed move based on how the runner is behaving inside the min/max bands and how it's relative book% piston value is performing.

tbh, it's a bit like being able to LOOK at something that's been recently varnished and know from smell, lustre and sheen as to whether it's dry and ready for the 2nd coat!! - i.e. a bit of common sense over layed with a dose of previous experiences that gave you sticky fingers

[firlandsfarm]

So you go with your gut Jim ... that's trading, preception/prediction into the future ... I was asking a simpler question ... how much does it have to move and over what timespan for you to say ... "That's a Steamer/Drifter" ... maybe people don't think about it, they just do it but I'm thinking is it 10% over 5 mins, maybe 20% since Morning Prices ... I'm not looking for what makes you trade, I'm just looking for you telling a mate down the pub that XYZ horse was a Steamer/Drifter. We talk of Steamers/Drifters I just wondered what people see as a Steamer/Drifter.

[ShaunWhite]

I just wondered what people see as a Steamer/Drifter.

I characterise it as a price that hasn't had any big pull backs...yet.

I don't think there is actually a dictionary def of timescales and amounts, it's more of an adjective than a noun.

[Derek27]

It's a bit like asking how much do you have to weigh to be officially fat (obese). A BMI of 30 is a bit harsh but we all know a fat man when we see one. (It seems there's a distinction between obese and fat!).

I just look at the graph. Whether you decide to call a significant move a steamer/drifter makes no odds.

[ruthlessimon]

Here's an interesting thought experiment.

This gets put alongside the "non-movers" if we measure a steam in IP% from start to end. Is that fair?

[ruthlessimon]

I characterise it as a price that hasn't had any big pull backs...yet.

& "big" is??

I think a major problem, is that it's easy to label what a steamer/drifter is. But devising something to capture that steamer or drifter - now it gets tricky (tricky to the point of failure).

Because your "big pullbacks" are potentially very valuable entries to the steamer/drifter