the weight of money

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Lucacrebbe
Posts: 190
Joined: Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:23 pm

Moniac wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 1:39 pm
Lucacrebbe wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 11:27 am
which advantage does it give to you to see that a price has a lot of traded volume?
It's the way the volume changes that's interesting, not just the size it is now. Look for the volume on one side of the spread rising faster than the other, or the volume changes at the top/bottom of a range etc. aka Volume delta.

Where do you take the volume delta?

Have you a software?

Also, entchuldingung, but the volume is not it always the same?

For every person that back, there is a someone who lays... so where cames this ''Delta'' ? What is it?

I have hears in the financial, but I never understand it much... what is the delta volume?
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Moniac
Posts: 37
Joined: Wed May 09, 2018 4:42 am

Lucacrebbe wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 4:28 pm
Where do you take the volume delta?
Have you a software?
.. what is the delta volume?
Volume is displayed in the traded volume column in BA. A 'delta' is a change in value over time.

Look at the traded volume at each price and observe how it is changing. This is the amount of money that is being matched at each price.

No extra software, just eyes and experience.
Lucacrebbe wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 4:28 pm
For every person that back, there is a someone who lays...
Yes but the usual way to describe it is from the view of the person who is accepting the offer.

That's why you hear phrases like "a horse is being backed" even though that obviously requires layers.

Do you have racing tv to watch, or have the live video on Italian BF?
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Derek27
Posts: 23476
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Location: UK

Moniac, Luca trades tennis not racing.

Luca, forget about WOM. As we said in the other thread it has no purpose for in-play tennis - it's generally used for pre-off horse racing markets.
Lucacrebbe
Posts: 190
Joined: Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:23 pm

Moniac wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 4:47 pm
Lucacrebbe wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 4:28 pm
Where do you take the volume delta?
Have you a software?
.. what is the delta volume?
Volume is displayed in the traded volume column in BA. A 'delta' is a change in value over time.

Look at the traded volume at each price and observe how it is changing. This is the amount of money that is being matched at each price.

No extra software, just eyes and experience.
Sorry I don't understand why a change in the volume at a given price, should give me insight tips of what could happen next (up or down)

Maybe I am retarded but I can't understand, sorry.

@Dereck ok, I just want to have as many variable as possible when enter into a trade
and the volume seems to be a good indicator for what could happen into a market
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Derek27
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Location: UK

I don't think you understand Luca. WOM, volume, and all the TA is irrelevant for in-play tennis. There's a five second delay when placing bets so you can't see what money's available and unlike other markets bets are often cancelled just before serving. It's the player that wins each point that really determines which way the market will go.
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ruthlessimon
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Lucacrebbe wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 3:45 pm
Sorry I don't understand why a change in the volume at a given price, should give me insight tips of what could happen next (up or down)
Here's the equity curve (cumulative ticks gained) of 2 linked backing strategies (horse racing though)

1. IP% - This strat backs after the fav steams x%, exit 0mins
2. Vol - This strat backs after x no.of £xxx sized back bets hit the fav (aggressive bets), exit 0mins

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arbitrage16
Posts: 532
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:27 pm

ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 7:17 pm
Lucacrebbe wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 3:45 pm
Sorry I don't understand why a change in the volume at a given price, should give me insight tips of what could happen next (up or down)
Here's the equity curve (cumulative ticks gained) of 2 linked backing strategies (horse racing though)

1. IP% - This strat backs after the fav steams x%, exit 0mins
2. Vol - This strat backs after x no.of £xxx sized back bets hit the fav (aggressive bets), exit 0mins

Image
Hi - what is IP%?

Also, to the untrained eye this looks like you are revealing an edge that could be automated - am I missing something?
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ruthlessimon
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 11:12 am
Hi - what is IP%?

Also, to the untrained eye this looks like you are revealing an edge that could be automated - am I missing something?
IP is basically price. An x IP% steam, see's a back entry.

It could be automated. However, a time-based strategy (literally "back at x mins"); is almost as profitable as the vol based one - because it's a guaranteed trade every single race. More bumpy equity curve, but more trades. I cannot yet fathom why a time-based strategy should be so profitable. Before I did the experiment, I predicted that the time-based trade should be the least profitable - because it's random! There's no skill to backing at x mins!

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BetScalper
Posts: 1139
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 11:12 am
ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 7:17 pm
Lucacrebbe wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 3:45 pm
Sorry I don't understand why a change in the volume at a given price, should give me insight tips of what could happen next (up or down)
Here's the equity curve (cumulative ticks gained) of 2 linked backing strategies (horse racing though)

1. IP% - This strat backs after the fav steams x%, exit 0mins
2. Vol - This strat backs after x no.of £xxx sized back bets hit the fav (aggressive bets), exit 0mins

Image
Hi - what is IP%?

Also, to the untrained eye this looks like you are revealing an edge that could be automated - am I missing something?
But in BA you can't log the size of the back bets, its volume only, so how do you know its back/lay money ?
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 5:23 pm
But in BA you can't log the size of the back bets, its volume only, so how do you know its back/lay money ?
I combine it to price i.e.

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Image
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BetScalper
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 5:51 pm
BetScalper wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 5:23 pm
But in BA you can't log the size of the back bets, its volume only, so how do you know its back/lay money ?
I combine it to price i.e.

Image
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Does that mean 14k was matched between those odds highlighted ? How does that mean that selection will win etc ?
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 6:11 pm
Does that mean 14k was matched between those odds highlighted ? How does that mean that selection will win etc ?
That's right yah.

Exactly, that's the type of thing I'm testing. "Where are these big players getting involved, & do they pre-empt further movement? do they pre-empt winners? What's better x10 £1000+ bets or x1 20000 bet? Are consecutive backs better?" I find this sort of thing fascinating. Just wish there was more content on this type of analysis
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BetScalper
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 6:20 pm
BetScalper wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 6:11 pm
Does that mean 14k was matched between those odds highlighted ? How does that mean that selection will win etc ?
That's right yah.

Exactly, that's the type of thing I'm testing. "Where are these big players getting involved, & do they pre-empt further movement? do they pre-empt winners? What's better x10 £1000+ bets or x1 20000 bet? Are consecutive backs better?" I find this sort of thing fascinating. Just wish there was more content on this type of analysis
I would imagine that in-running the following could be something to look at:

- WOM < 30 and selections matched volume has increased by 10%.

This should give at least a 1 tick move even with the 2 second delay on horses.

There is less chance of spoof money in-play on horses as there is a good chance it could get filled.

Its probably safe to say if a selections matched volume before the start was 40k and in-play it increases to 44k or more that something significant is occurring, even for a short period.
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BetScalper
Posts: 1139
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 7:17 pm
Lucacrebbe wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 3:45 pm
Sorry I don't understand why a change in the volume at a given price, should give me insight tips of what could happen next (up or down)
Here's the equity curve (cumulative ticks gained) of 2 linked backing strategies (horse racing though)

1. IP% - This strat backs after the fav steams x%, exit 0mins
2. Vol - This strat backs after x no.of £xxx sized back bets hit the fav (aggressive bets), exit 0mins

Image
I found this very interesting. So much so that I put together a pretty simple trigger to monitor the volume/price for the top 4 in-running and scalp them on the last 3 races of the day. Too my surprise, I made more ticks profit today than I have all week. I used 20% increase in the selections volume to initiate the trades. Obviously it needs allot more testing, so I am going to run it across all the races tomorrow.

Thanks for posting this. Could be a lightbulb moment, for me anyway. :)
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 11:05 pm
Thanks for posting this. Could be a lightbulb moment, for me anyway. :)
Np - Just thought something like this makes a change from the 'usual' ;)
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