How many of you also gamble (deliberately)?

[stueytrader]

I know we've done to death on here the 'is trading gambling' question.

But, interesting to ask, how many 'traders' on here also deliberately gamble/place bets too?

I do realise a serious trader has to be clear when they are trading (not gambling), but do many here also spot at times those 'bets' they want to place as a position taker too?

Or, are there those that are religious about never placing a bet - a bit like a tea-total version, but in this case 'trade-total'...

I have to admit I've been both across all my acitivites, and it has sometimes caught me out - but in general I can be clear enough about the distinction, and use both to my advantage when needed.

[Dallas]

Could probably count the times on both hands I have an 'outright' bet each year, but not coming from a betting background I have never had a problem separating these from my daily trading

[Trader Pat]

I havent placed a straight 'bet' in about 2 years!

As a LIverpool fan though I've layed them in the Champions league outright market. If we win happy days dont care about the money lost, but if we lose I can drown my sorrows in style!

[Euler]

There are some really good betting opportunities you can exploit nowadays as the book overround is so small and volatility so high. You obviously keep both very separate but there is a case for saying that trading can compliment a betting strategy, but I haven't found the reverse true.

[stueytrader]

There are some really good betting opportunities you can exploit nowadays as the book overround is so small and volatility so high. You obviously keep both very separate but there is a case for saying that trading can compliment a betting strategy, but I haven't found the reverse true.

I have sometimes looked at that as an approach in terms of trading complimenting betting - for example you are looking to back a specific selection, but also feel it will shorten. Makes sense to look to gain better value by backing to lay (while leaving your original intended stake).
However, as you suggest you have to know that is the aim at the outset, otherwise that can easily become a 'going inplay' version of a pre-trade instead. I suppose that is other direction you mention - betting does not ever compliment trading directly. It has to be a separate activity.

[Emmson]

My cricket trading is position taking then trading on top, cricket is perfect for that, its the GOAT and will always be the GOAT

[Trading96]

Yeah I mostly bet outright with a hedge if the market reacts too much. I don't count it as trading.

You can make big yields in even the most supposedly efficient markets if you know how to price them, Chelsea started today at about 3's went off at 2.7 or so. That's the FA Cup Final. How much value must exist in lower league football for example, especially if you get early Tues/Wed/Thurs prices.

[northbound]

I do gamble on the side deliberately, not too often, mostly using Bet365. Small stakes, just for fun.

[ShaunWhite]

There are some really good betting opportunities you can exploit nowadays as the book overround is so small and volatility so high.

I see how volatility can give rise to value but what has overround got to do with value on an individual selection?

[northbound]

There are some really good betting opportunities you can exploit nowadays as the book overround is so small and volatility so high.

I see how volatility can give rise to value but what has overround got to do with value on an individual selection?

Perhaps it’s because when 1/2 selections start getting backed quickly, their odds fall and in turn another selection’s odds drift quickly: well above what should be fair odds.

This drift is caused perhaps by super quick bots that keep the book percentage as close to 100% as possible. This type of drift is not caused by punters that lay the selection like crazy.

[ShaunWhite]

Thx northbound, I understand the principal.

High overround : 3 horses priced at evens and they can all drift to 6/4 and non still represent back value.

Low overround : 3 horses priced at 2/1, any movement is corrected and value can theoretically be obtained.

My question is though that I don't know how you can know which are value propositions. This thread is about gambling, pro gamblers (or their analysts) seek value and do so by the highly skilled and specialised job of pricing up markets.

Just because value is mathematically present in a market it doesn't help to choose the specific selection(s) that represents that back or lay value. A trader might assume value from movement or price relationship to vwap etc but a gambler will know that the horse that drifted from evens to 4/1 still isn't back value because it going to be a non trier or didn't travel well that morning.

Gambling is a totally different discipline to playing with market maths on large samples. A gambler might have one bet a week, to get value from the maths alone might require 100 bets a week. Imo gambling is much harder than trading, a gambler who can price a market will take value and know where a market is likely to go, a cold trader can only guess what is value or where the market might go.

It's basic fundamental analysis vs technical analysis. Buffett vs Excel.

[ShaunWhite]

I'm looking forward to seeing what seehorse says about how you can find value just by looking at the ladders, he makes money on both trading and gambling and keeps good records.

[Derek27]

There are some really good betting opportunities you can exploit nowadays as the book overround is so small and volatility so high.

I see how volatility can give rise to value but what has overround got to do with value on an individual selection?

If you leave an automated spreadsheet running for 10 minutes before the off recording the peak prices and best historical back overround for that period it usually falls below 90%, sometimes below 75%.

Whilst it doesn't tell you which runners are value (and I agree a cold trader won't have a clue) it does indicate the extent of opportunity for punters who study horse racing. I'm sure in many cases almost every runner would be value at some stage.

[Halliday]

I'm looking forward to seeing what seehorse says about how you can find value just by looking at the ladders, he makes money on both trading and gambling and keeps good records.

If your betting on horses then “value” is the key to making it successful.looking at ladders etc on Betangel will not help you find “value” during your selection process, as it’s an individual opinion.

If I think a horse priced up at say 6/4 should be an even money chance ( based on form, trainer, course , draw , going class etc or any other factor) then that represents value. Someone else might think based on similar or different criteria that or should be say 2/1 or greater ..and would think it poor value .

No chart or ladder would influence their view as to the value of a particular horses odds .( eg if you think a change in the going has given a big advantage to horses drawn low, and that one of them might represent “value “ because the odds don’t reflect the perceived draw advantage, etc )

Equally if someone thought a horse had a excellent chance of winning but represented poor value, then its highly unlikely that person would back it.

[Derek27]

I think Shaun knows what value is. The question was, and it seems we all agree on the answer, whether you can spot value purely from market movements.