Thx northbound, I understand the principal.
High overround : 3 horses priced at evens and they can all drift to 6/4 and non still represent back value.
Low overround : 3 horses priced at 2/1, any movement is corrected and value can theoretically be obtained.
My question is though that I don't know how you can know which are value propositions. This thread is about gambling, pro gamblers (or their analysts) seek value and do so by the highly skilled and specialised job of pricing up markets.
Just because value is mathematically present in a market it doesn't help to choose the specific selection(s) that represents that back or lay value. A trader might assume value from movement or price relationship to vwap etc but a gambler will know that the horse that drifted from evens to 4/1 still isn't back value because it going to be a non trier or didn't travel well that morning.
Gambling is a totally different discipline to playing with market maths on large samples. A gambler might have one bet a week, to get value from the maths alone might require 100 bets a week. Imo gambling is much harder than trading, a gambler who can price a market will take value and know where a market is likely to go, a cold trader can only guess what is value or where the market might go.
It's basic fundamental analysis vs technical analysis. Buffett vs Excel.
How many of you also gamble (deliberately)?
- ShaunWhite
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I'm looking forward to seeing what seehorse says about how you can find value just by looking at the ladders, he makes money on both trading and gambling and keeps good records.
If you leave an automated spreadsheet running for 10 minutes before the off recording the peak prices and best historical back overround for that period it usually falls below 90%, sometimes below 75%.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:28 pmI see how volatility can give rise to value but what has overround got to do with value on an individual selection?
Whilst it doesn't tell you which runners are value (and I agree a cold trader won't have a clue) it does indicate the extent of opportunity for punters who study horse racing. I'm sure in many cases almost every runner would be value at some stage.
If your betting on horses then “value” is the key to making it successful.looking at ladders etc on Betangel will not help you find “value” during your selection process, as it’s an individual opinion.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:34 amI'm looking forward to seeing what seehorse says about how you can find value just by looking at the ladders, he makes money on both trading and gambling and keeps good records.
If I think a horse priced up at say 6/4 should be an even money chance ( based on form, trainer, course , draw , going class etc or any other factor) then that represents value. Someone else might think based on similar or different criteria that or should be say 2/1 or greater ..and would think it poor value .
No chart or ladder would influence their view as to the value of a particular horses odds .( eg if you think a change in the going has given a big advantage to horses drawn low, and that one of them might represent “value “ because the odds don’t reflect the perceived draw advantage, etc )
Equally if someone thought a horse had a excellent chance of winning but represented poor value, then its highly unlikely that person would back it.
Initial backs of Lancs at 1.32 & 1.3 is gambling and everything after that is trading.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfSKRFtE5cQ
Game still going on, hoping Tom Latham can do something to get than Lancs price drifting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfSKRFtE5cQ
Game still going on, hoping Tom Latham can do something to get than Lancs price drifting.
- ShaunWhite
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Bottom line is that the true precise value of a horse on the day can never be known. Too many variables.
Ladder stats will give you a pointer and you'll have even more idea if you know the animals involved.
I think any pro gambling operation that heard a cold trader saying they could identify value on a given random horse would piss themselves laughing. I could pull up any BF chart you like and a cold trader wouldn't have a clue which price was the price. Backing 50 of them might return a small edge, but nothing like the sniper-like accuracy of a top racing analyst employed by a betting syndicate.
In one word slippage. If you betting into a 150% book you are leaking 50% to the other side of the book. If you bet into a 100% book you leak nothing. Most of my value betting strategies wait for the overround to be at or near to 100%.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:28 pmI see how volatility can give rise to value but what has overround got to do with value on an individual selection?
- ShaunWhite
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I understand slippage, I just don't understand how we can know that individual selection X is a value proposition at any given price, although I totally accept that the maths and mechanics prove that those situations exist in almost every minute of every day.Euler wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 9:39 pmIn one word slippage. If you betting into a 150% book you are leaking 50% to the other side of the book. If you bet into a 100% book you leak nothing. Most of my value betting strategies wait for the overround to be at or near to 100%.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 10:28 pmI see how volatility can give rise to value but what has overround got to do with value on an individual selection?
Are you a) backing selection X at a price the market numbers tell you is probably statistically value, or b) at a price you've determined, through FA, to be better than the true price?
Both are equally clever but I'm hoping it's a) because I'm not trading so that I can do timeform analysis all day.
- wearthefoxhat
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Yes in the place market.stueytrader wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 12:24 pmI know we've done to death on here the 'is trading gambling' question.
But, interesting to ask, how many 'traders' on here also deliberately gamble/place bets too?
I do realise a serious trader has to be clear when they are trading (not gambling), but do many here also spot at times those 'bets' they want to place as a position taker too?
Or, are there those that are religious about never placing a bet - a bit like a tea-total version, but in this case 'trade-total'...
I have to admit I've been both across all my acitivites, and it has sometimes caught me out - but in general I can be clear enough about the distinction, and use both to my advantage when needed.
So much value being able to get a place single at often good value odds. The bookies (apart from maybe one or two online) don't want to take place singles, for obvious reasons.
- SeaHorseRacing
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I do a lot...stueytrader wrote: ↑Sat May 19, 2018 12:24 pmI know we've done to death on here the 'is trading gambling' question.
But, interesting to ask, how many 'traders' on here also deliberately gamble/place bets too?
I do realise a serious trader has to be clear when they are trading (not gambling), but do many here also spot at times those 'bets' they want to place as a position taker too?
Or, are there those that are religious about never placing a bet - a bit like a tea-total version, but in this case 'trade-total'...
I have to admit I've been both across all my acitivites, and it has sometimes caught me out - but in general I can be clear enough about the distinction, and use both to my advantage when needed.
Well by what I mean a lot.. maybe 1/2 bets a week and a daily accumulator but I don’t mix my betfair account with betting. Trading only.
Unless I am out for the day say racing than only I might use my bf.
I found no betting on my account life changing for my trading. Although I am possibly missing more value, I make most of my money trading. When you have a bad day this stops you destroying balance if your from a gambling background.
- SeaHorseRacing
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Imo their are many ways to find value and I have to disagree. You can find value purely from looking at the ladders. What happens when 3 horses are fancied in one race? 3 can’t all be gambled which usually results in something drifting. Especially favourites. So often you see 2.0 priced fav drift out to 2.5 just because 2nd and 3rd is. Backed.Halliday wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 11:21 amIf your betting on horses then “value” is the key to making it successful.looking at ladders etc on Betangel will not help you find “value” during your selection process, as it’s an individual opinion.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sun May 20, 2018 1:34 amI'm looking forward to seeing what seehorse says about how you can find value just by looking at the ladders, he makes money on both trading and gambling and keeps good records.
If I think a horse priced up at say 6/4 should be an even money chance ( based on form, trainer, course , draw , going class etc or any other factor) then that represents value. Someone else might think based on similar or different criteria that or should be say 2/1 or greater ..and would think it poor value .
No chart or ladder would influence their view as to the value of a particular horses odds .( eg if you think a change in the going has given a big advantage to horses drawn low, and that one of them might represent “value “ because the odds don’t reflect the perceived draw advantage, etc )
Equally if someone thought a horse had a excellent chance of winning but represented poor value, then its highly unlikely that person would back it.
There are generally 2 ways to gamble.
1- just taking value. Getting 25s in something which should be priced 10s- (Dave Nevison is this sort of gambler)
2- looking for horses who you genuinely think will win before deciding if the price is value.
Imo- best way to do it. But spending hours through the form book to find that horse... to than say can’t back it at that price is incredibly difficult to do and I think why so many fail.
Number 1 is very boring as your not forming an opinion but using ratings etc to work out a price.
If you have no interest in racing but want to gamble 1. Would be the way to go. If your a mug punter and love to bet number 2 but your already at odds as it is a very difficult skill to learn.
All my selections I post on the forum, excluding some inside info are only listed when I believe they are 100% overlays.
If I tip something at 5/1. (6s) I have priced it 3.0 or less.
I’d say about 60/70% of my opinions don’t even get posted here. No point posting a 6/4 shot when I have priced it 2/1.
As a point to what Halliday says, I have learned the hard way over the years but anyone serious about betting to make some money. No matter who says what.
When considering the draw, odds, going of a horse leave them last.
Find your selections before any of that.
I have mate who will look at a drawbias or the going conditions before looking for a horse. Such the wrong thing to do.
The draw and going should only be used to cosider actually placing the bet.
For example. I like horse 1 because he’s improving, ran nicely at the track last time. Looks a weak race. He only has favourite to beat who I think is week.
Than... ooo he’s drawn 9 from 9 and I am not sure he likes this fast ground.
In this occasion I would only back this with a 200% over lay.
If I think he’s 4/1 I won’t consider it unless he’s 14/1.
If you know the ground is good to firm and their is a draw bias. You will automatically look for well drawn fast ground horses, which automatically put you at odds because your looking for a horse that may actually not be as strong as it should be.
Last edited by SeaHorseRacing on Mon May 21, 2018 11:29 am, edited 2 times in total.