It's generally accepted that SP is efficient in a large sample. Have you got any stats that say the SP of the big movers isn't? The danger is that these are just memorable rather than statistically significant. The value probably existed before the move but if we knew that we'd all be minted.stueytrader wrote: ↑Thu May 24, 2018 11:10 amThe huge drifters that then go on to win/run very well in the race. The hammered favourites or steamers that run awfully in the race.
WRT the topic of the month 'harmonic mean', is this proven to be even closer to the actual winning likelihood than SP? If deviation represents value then I assume that's the case.