Odds movements

A place to discuss anything.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23476
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

BetScalper wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 7:43 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 6:27 pm
I don't trade in-play but the overrounds are usually on the right side of 100%. So if one of them looked like winning it would be odds on and the others would drift so there wouldn't be any easy profit.

Unless you laid the other three before one looked like winning, in which case you may just as well back the one you think will look like winning (and go on to win). Or have I misunderstood you again?
If you have STREAMING on then on a fair few in-play horse races the Back Book% goes below 97%.

Unrelated but it happened on the lay side during the end of the Eurovision song contest when the Lay Book% was above 104% for several minutes.

Basically free money. :)

PS. Never seen it happen with STREAMING turned off.
I've seen a back underround loads of times, long before streaming. The problem is it only takes £2 to distort the overround.

Say you back the field to return £100 staking £90, for a £10 profit. If the £25 you wanted on a 4.0 shot doesn't get matched and his price collapses to 2.0, that's £50 you need resulting in a £15 loss. Worse still, if the 2.0 goes and you can't get a bet on and it wins you end up losing £65!
User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 9:20 pm
BetScalper wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 7:43 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 6:27 pm
I don't trade in-play but the overrounds are usually on the right side of 100%. So if one of them looked like winning it would be odds on and the others would drift so there wouldn't be any easy profit.

Unless you laid the other three before one looked like winning, in which case you may just as well back the one you think will look like winning (and go on to win). Or have I misunderstood you again?
If you have STREAMING on then on a fair few in-play horse races the Back Book% goes below 97%.

Unrelated but it happened on the lay side during the end of the Eurovision song contest when the Lay Book% was above 104% for several minutes.

Basically free money. :)

PS. Never seen it happen with STREAMING turned off.
I've seen a back underround loads of times, long before streaming. The problem is it only takes £2 to distort the overround.

Say you back the field to return £100 staking £90, for a £10 profit. If the £25 you wanted on a 4.0 shot doesn't get matched and his price collapses to 2.0, that's £50 you need resulting in a £15 loss. Worse still, if the 2.0 goes and you can't get a bet on and it wins you end up losing £65!
Perhaps I just been lucky then.

All I did was...

- Back all selections in the market if the Back Book% < 90 AND the Lay Book% < 90

Unfortunately, only happened on 4 races today. Money was matched fast and I was paid out a profit.

I only do it on races > 2 miles. Obviously it won't work on 5f as odds change to fast.

Time will tell I guess.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23476
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

If the back book is less than 90% the lay book has to be be below 90% as lay prices are always higher than the available back price.
Post Reply

Return to “General discussion”