Odds movements

[BetScalper]

Hi,

Assuming the following occurred:

- A market has any 4 selections with lay odds between 4 and 6
- lay book% > 99
- lay all selections by book%

At some point isn't the market p&l going to be > 0 ?

Cheers,

[Derek27]

4.0, 4.5, 5.0 & 6.0 gives a lay overround of 83.5%. Laying all four would take in £83.50 for a £100 payout, making a loss of £16.50. Even if all four were 4.0 that would only be a 100% book.

[BetScalper]

4.0, 4.5, 5.0 & 6.0 gives a lay overround of 83.5%. Laying all four would take in £83.50 for a £100 payout, making a loss of £16.50. Even if all four were 4.0 that would only be a 100% book.

What I meant was assuming one of the 4 looked like winning, would the odds movement of the other 3 make up for the other 1 creating a market p&l > 0 at some point in the race before the end or it doesn't work like that ?

Cheers,

[Derek27]

I don't trade in-play but the overrounds are usually on the right side of 100%. So if one of them looked like winning it would be odds on and the others would drift so there wouldn't be any easy profit.

Unless you laid the other three before one looked like winning, in which case you may just as well back the one you think will look like winning (and go on to win). Or have I misunderstood you again?

[BetScalper]

I don't trade in-play but the overrounds are usually on the right side of 100%. So if one of them looked like winning it would be odds on and the others would drift so there wouldn't be any easy profit.

Unless you laid the other three before one looked like winning, in which case you may just as well back the one you think will look like winning (and go on to win). Or have I misunderstood you again?

If you have STREAMING on then on a fair few in-play horse races the Back Book% goes below 97%.

Unrelated but it happened on the lay side during the end of the Eurovision song contest when the Lay Book% was above 104% for several minutes.

Basically free money.

PS. Never seen it happen with STREAMING turned off.

[LinusP]

I don't trade in-play but the overrounds are usually on the right side of 100%. So if one of them looked like winning it would be odds on and the others would drift so there wouldn't be any easy profit.

Unless you laid the other three before one looked like winning, in which case you may just as well back the one you think will look like winning (and go on to win). Or have I misunderstood you again?

If you have STREAMING on then on a fair few in-play horse races the Back Book% goes below 97%.

Unrelated but it happened on the lay side during the end of the Eurovision song contest when the Lay Book% was above 104% for several minutes.

Basically free money.

PS. Never seen it happen with STREAMING turned off.

It only happens when XM is off, but it's not free money especially if a runner is then removed (normally a cause of it being turned off) as you will get burnt.

[BetScalper]

I don't trade in-play but the overrounds are usually on the right side of 100%. So if one of them looked like winning it would be odds on and the others would drift so there wouldn't be any easy profit.

Unless you laid the other three before one looked like winning, in which case you may just as well back the one you think will look like winning (and go on to win). Or have I misunderstood you again?

If you have STREAMING on then on a fair few in-play horse races the Back Book% goes below 97%.

Unrelated but it happened on the lay side during the end of the Eurovision song contest when the Lay Book% was above 104% for several minutes.

Basically free money.

PS. Never seen it happen with STREAMING turned off.

It only happens when XM is off, but it's not free money especially if a runner is then removed (normally a cause of it being turned off) as you will get burnt.

It happens when all the horses have already gone. Not before. One race today it hit 75% in-running.

[ShaunWhite]

One race today it hit 75% in-running.

How much did you manage to get matched?

[LinusP]

If you have STREAMING on then on a fair few in-play horse races the Back Book% goes below 97%.

Unrelated but it happened on the lay side during the end of the Eurovision song contest when the Lay Book% was above 104% for several minutes.

Basically free money.

PS. Never seen it happen with STREAMING turned off.

It only happens when XM is off, but it's not free money especially if a runner is then removed (normally a cause of it being turned off) as you will get burnt.

It happens when all the horses have already gone. Not before. One race today it hit 75% in-running.

Yep and the runner will be removed after the race has finished.

[BetScalper]

It only happens when XM is off, but it's not free money especially if a runner is then removed (normally a cause of it being turned off) as you will get burnt.

It happens when all the horses have already gone. Not before. One race today it hit 75% in-running.

Yep and the runner will be removed after the race has finished.

How can they remove a runner after a race, they all started ???????

[BetScalper]

One race today it hit 75% in-running.

How much did you manage to get matched?

Pennies. £7

[LinusP]

It happens when all the horses have already gone. Not before. One race today it hit 75% in-running.

Yep and the runner will be removed after the race has finished.

How can they remove a runner after a race, they all started ???????

If they all run then it’s fine but XM is only off inplay if Betfair think a runner will be removed and they are unable to remove it from the market before the start.

[ShaunWhite]

I'm amazed anyone can dutch inplay into an underround market and get a balanced outcome. Blink and it's gone. That's what you're describing isn't it? Or maybe I've missed the idea.

Incidentally might you have got a similar amount matched regardless of the overround just due to normal fluctuations?

[BetScalper]

Yep and the runner will be removed after the race has finished.

How can they remove a runner after a race, they all started ???????

If they all run then it’s fine but XM is only off inplay if Betfair think a runner will be removed and they are unable to remove it from the market before the start.

Understood. Any idea why they obviously turned it off for the Eurovision song contest as the Lay Book% was 104 for a long time and I managed to get £100 matched ?

[BetScalper]

I'm amazed anyone can dutch inplay into an underround market and get a balanced outcome. Blink and it's gone. That's what you're describing isn't it? Or maybe I've missed the idea.

Incidentally might you have got a similar amount matched regardless of the overround just due to normal fluctuations?

I setup a trigger to fire if the following occurs > 10 seconds after the off.

- Back all selections in the market if the Back Book% < 90 AND the Lay Book% < 90

Doesn't happen every race, unfortunately.