Odds movements

[BetScalper]

One race today it hit 75% in-running.

How much did you manage to get matched?

Pennies. £7

[LinusP]

It happens when all the horses have already gone. Not before. One race today it hit 75% in-running.

Yep and the runner will be removed after the race has finished.

How can they remove a runner after a race, they all started ???????

If they all run then it’s fine but XM is only off inplay if Betfair think a runner will be removed and they are unable to remove it from the market before the start.

[ShaunWhite]

I'm amazed anyone can dutch inplay into an underround market and get a balanced outcome. Blink and it's gone. That's what you're describing isn't it? Or maybe I've missed the idea.

Incidentally might you have got a similar amount matched regardless of the overround just due to normal fluctuations?

[BetScalper]

Yep and the runner will be removed after the race has finished.

How can they remove a runner after a race, they all started ???????

If they all run then it’s fine but XM is only off inplay if Betfair think a runner will be removed and they are unable to remove it from the market before the start.

Understood. Any idea why they obviously turned it off for the Eurovision song contest as the Lay Book% was 104 for a long time and I managed to get £100 matched ?

[BetScalper]

I'm amazed anyone can dutch inplay into an underround market and get a balanced outcome. Blink and it's gone. That's what you're describing isn't it? Or maybe I've missed the idea.

Incidentally might you have got a similar amount matched regardless of the overround just due to normal fluctuations?

I setup a trigger to fire if the following occurs > 10 seconds after the off.

- Back all selections in the market if the Back Book% < 90 AND the Lay Book% < 90

Doesn't happen every race, unfortunately.

[Derek27]

I don't trade in-play but the overrounds are usually on the right side of 100%. So if one of them looked like winning it would be odds on and the others would drift so there wouldn't be any easy profit.

Unless you laid the other three before one looked like winning, in which case you may just as well back the one you think will look like winning (and go on to win). Or have I misunderstood you again?

If you have STREAMING on then on a fair few in-play horse races the Back Book% goes below 97%.

Unrelated but it happened on the lay side during the end of the Eurovision song contest when the Lay Book% was above 104% for several minutes.

Basically free money.

PS. Never seen it happen with STREAMING turned off.

I've seen a back underround loads of times, long before streaming. The problem is it only takes £2 to distort the overround.

Say you back the field to return £100 staking £90, for a £10 profit. If the £25 you wanted on a 4.0 shot doesn't get matched and his price collapses to 2.0, that's £50 you need resulting in a £15 loss. Worse still, if the 2.0 goes and you can't get a bet on and it wins you end up losing £65!

[BetScalper]

I don't trade in-play but the overrounds are usually on the right side of 100%. So if one of them looked like winning it would be odds on and the others would drift so there wouldn't be any easy profit.

Unless you laid the other three before one looked like winning, in which case you may just as well back the one you think will look like winning (and go on to win). Or have I misunderstood you again?

If you have STREAMING on then on a fair few in-play horse races the Back Book% goes below 97%.

Unrelated but it happened on the lay side during the end of the Eurovision song contest when the Lay Book% was above 104% for several minutes.

Basically free money.

PS. Never seen it happen with STREAMING turned off.

I've seen a back underround loads of times, long before streaming. The problem is it only takes £2 to distort the overround.

Say you back the field to return £100 staking £90, for a £10 profit. If the £25 you wanted on a 4.0 shot doesn't get matched and his price collapses to 2.0, that's £50 you need resulting in a £15 loss. Worse still, if the 2.0 goes and you can't get a bet on and it wins you end up losing £65!

Perhaps I just been lucky then.

All I did was...

- Back all selections in the market if the Back Book% < 90 AND the Lay Book% < 90

Unfortunately, only happened on 4 races today. Money was matched fast and I was paid out a profit.

I only do it on races > 2 miles. Obviously it won't work on 5f as odds change to fast.

Time will tell I guess.

[Derek27]

If the back book is less than 90% the lay book has to be be below 90% as lay prices are always higher than the available back price.