Betfair Volumes

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Jonathan
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:15 pm

Hi All,


I have recently started to swing trade low quality races with some volatility but fairly stable. If I find a race with no volatility I then scalp.

Two weeks ago I tried, Aintree was running for the week. The volumes on Aintrnee on the Saturday where reaching volumes of 1.5 million and the lower quality races where void of decent volume and they became massively volatile due to a lack of volume. I tried to scalp Aintree and found that the prices where virtually static, my bets where hitting the kill timer and those that did take had to be scratched.

Then the world cup started, the Argentina match on the Friday before the match had £75k on the back side to win and £100k in the lay side, no way of getting to the front of that queue. It was also frozen, even the odds on. They would not move either way and the volume on the horses races that I scalp and swing again had no volume to speak of making them very volatile.

Can I ask, is this normal and what will happen tomorrow when Wimbledon starts

Thanks

Jonathan
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Don't be frightened off by the large volumes, with large volumes come large bets and once things start to move they're usually sustained rather than simply the 'noise' you get in low liquidity markets. It's generally just a case of holding your nerve and biding your time to get matched but large volumes won't stop the market moving if they're value to someone.
Jonathan
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:15 pm

Thanks, point noted, I just stopped and didn't look so next time I will stay in, investigate and observe
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Sb was correct in what he said but I'll just add that re the Argentina market, as you can imagine markets only move when there's reason for them to move. With pre match football, unless there's team news its unlikely to move very much. But even on huge horse markets, once the horses are in the parade ring and people start to reassess their condition and demeanor, adjustments will always start to take place no matter how much money is sat on either side, just as football markets do once the whistle blows. Markets don't exist in a bubble, they're a real-time depiction of sentiment about the physical world.

You obviously do get early market moves but the correlation between volume and volatility that you've observed tends to remain a defining factor.
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:51 pm
You obviously do get early market moves but the correlation between volume and volatility that you've observed tends to remain a defining factor.
Devils advocate incoming :twisted:

Is this true though?

I had a look at this (caveat, for a select group of markets) - measuring the median range (fav) in 1 min intervals (5-4mins, 4-3mins etc). Here were the results:

5-4mins: 6ticks
4-3mins: 6ticks
3-2mins: 6ticks
2-1mins: 7ticks
1-0mins: 6ticks

If your assumption was correct, I should've seen the following results:

5-4mins: 6ticks
4-3mins: 5ticks
3-2mins: 4ticks
2-1mins: 3ticks
1-0mins: 1ticks
Jonathan
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:15 pm

All,

Hoping you can help.

I am very close to turning professional and need a last bastion in my armour, I have a scalping system for big races, I have a swing trading system for certain volatile races, I am now trying to fill in a system to fill in the gaps to maximise my productivity.

This filler relies on weight of money on flat horses in poor/low volume races that the traders have not yet moved into and it works but?

The wonderful internet says, if the weight of money is on the back side the price will go down, if the weight of money is on the lay side the price will go up

I use the COTS weight of money graph provided by Bet Angel

If I front load the top three horses on the lay side (as this is how WOM is calculated), the weight of money graph goes to 75% and the horse goes down????. This is what I expected. But when I heavily lay the horse the money is on the back side (and vice versa) which according to the internet means the horse will go down and it doesn't. Some form of contradiction in terms

I cannot find a tech note to explain the in depth explanation of the meaning of weight of money but I am sure I have this correct. In my anal world I have to have an explanation to understand the behaviour

Is this why traders reverse the book, I have yet to understand the benefit other than it is personal preference.

Thanks All,


Jonathan
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Derek27
Posts: 23477
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Jonathan wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:39 pm
...which according to the internet means the horse will go down and it doesn't.
I don't mean to sound funny but the internet doesn't have an opinion - it's the opinion of the person who wrote the article who could be anyone!
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ANGELS15
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

Hi Jonathan, I'm in no way meaning to sound horrible and I'm not trying to upset you but are you really 'nearly ready to turn professional'? Wouldn't you need to already know the answers to these questions?

Using an anology like learning to drive. A learner will ask questions etc. The moment they've passed their test they should be able to jump in a car and drive wherever they want to go. Of course they'll make some small errors (even experienced drivers will) but on the whole they should be competent.

What I'm trying to say is don't feel in a rush to turn professional before you're truly ready.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Jonathan wrote:
Tue Aug 20, 2019 7:39 pm
I have to have an explanation to understand the behaviour
Backing and laying is just like selling and buying in any other market, and the price theoretically responds to supply and demand pressures in the same way. WoM is alledgedly a way to gauge whether buyers (aka layers) out-gun sellers (aka backers) or visa versa.

But generally just do what works for you. There's no X does this, so do that, and you make money. Hence why I used 'theoretically' and 'alledgedly'.
Jonathan
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:15 pm

All,

Many thanks, the replies are all welcome and make me feel more comfortable

On the point about the internet, yes, agreed, it is only an opinion

Taking on board the point, if it works, then don't question it or try to understand it, it could drive me mad. Theoretical versus allegedly. Noted and very important

On the warning, this is appreciated and I understand the sentiment. I am swinging high volume horses and scalping high volume races. I have been doing this part time for 2 years, all is good. The issue I have is the boredom factor and the itchiness when I have to sit on my hands in Peter W words.

My confusion has arisen from the fact that I want to fill my day with more than two or three ideal races a day to keep me from falling asleep, I don't need more races, I am just not feeling very productive as I sit around waiting for the ideal conditions, especially when swing trading as the conditions need to be perfect.

I think the answer to my question is, don't over analyse, if it wins more than it loses you are in good shape

Taking on board the warning, I think I will stick with what I know works and switch to practice mode for the system I don't understand to ensure it works in practice mode and then start with small stakes

Thanks again guys
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Jonathan wrote:
Wed Aug 21, 2019 6:57 pm
Taking on board the point, if it works, then don't question it or try to understand it, it could drive me mad.
I didn't say not to question it or to understand it. I was advocating doing what works for you rather than trying to find what works for other people and trying to copy it.
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ANGELS15
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

Hi Jonathan. Taking your point about trying to fill the gaps between trading opportunities. Have you considered other trading scenarios in addition to scalping/swing trading?

In my case I've never really done much scalping as I tend to do a lot of back to lay or vice versa trades on racing. I tend to find opportunites throughout the day.

Are there sports you are knowlegeable about? Are you able to spot value, back it and trade it off later at lower odds? I don''t really follow football but I remember not so long ago looking at a match and the weaker team's odds were 4/1. It occured to me if they could score a goal then their odds would shorten. I backed them at 5.0 on Betfair and put in a lay bet to keep at 2.5. Sure enough they actualy scored first and their odds halved and my bet was taken so I was in profit. They lost in the end but it didn't matter to me.

If there is something you're good at exploit it. Have a look at the shared files section and see if there are any automation files you can use/mofify for your strategy.

This will give you other things to occupy yourself with while you wait for markets to scalp.
Jonathan
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Oct 13, 2010 8:15 pm

Thanks All, quality points as usual, all feedback noted. I like the "do what works for you" on trying alternatives, you are correct, I should broaden my scope. Then I realised, in the space between swings and scalps (pretty busy with e the big meets but evenings are slow), why not investigate other opportunities, you just filled my gap.
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