This is a typical market.
The key aspect is time though. It's a massive steamer, looks like it's about to turn... but there's 10seconds remaining
This is a typical market.
I'm not sure if my bit is right .. because I've literally taken the same sample & looked at the steam from an "IP% perspective"ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:20 pmI think this conversation just demonstrates how many opportunities there are, and you're both right.
These kind of stats are fine, but what allowances are made for opposition from other runners? If a runner "steaming 3%" (LOL!) is backed purely on that then of course it's not going to work because there are at least 5 other factors I can think of that determine the veracity of that move.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:31 pmI'm not sure if my bit is right .. because I've literally taken the same sample & looked at the steam from an "IP% perspective"ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:20 pmI think this conversation just demonstrates how many opportunities there are, and you're both right.
Backing after a 3% move is a losing trade (-62 ticks) through May.
But that "3%", on average, was a 10 tick steam.
Backing the favs that steamed 10 ticks through May was (+58 ticks)
Really? If markets are generally normally distributed (as Peter suggests), you'd assume the biggest moves are very profitable to fade (almost blindly).arbitrage16 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:44 amThese kind of stats are fine, but what allowances are made for opposition from other runners? If a runner "steaming 3%" (LOL!) is backed purely on that then of course it's not going to work because there are at least 5 other factors I can think of that determine the veracity of that move.
Don't understand this part, could you please clarify?ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Wed Jul 18, 2018 2:42 pmReally? If markets are generally normally distributed (as Peter suggests), you'd assume the biggest moves are very profitable to fade (almost blindly).arbitrage16 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:44 amThese kind of stats are fine, but what allowances are made for opposition from other runners? If a runner "steaming 3%" (LOL!) is backed purely on that then of course it's not going to work because there are at least 5 other factors I can think of that determine the veracity of that move.
I'd define a contrarian trade as one that is based on mean-reversion. & the clue is in the name, "mean"-reversion - we expect the price to return to "the average".
Let's say the favourite has steamed 3%.arbitrage16 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 18, 2018 5:11 pmLimitless? I'd say fairly consistent patterns when one knows what to look for...