I remember when I first started using Betfair around 2001 not long after it first started. I was thrilled at getting the chance to lay all the 'dodgy' favourites I used to see. It seemed to go well initially. Fortunately I only used small stakes. But very quickly I found that it was just not working out. I remember at the time laying what I thought was a dodgy novice chase favourite (around 13/8) it clouted every fence, the jockey lost his irons at one stage and nearly unseated at the last yet it still won!
About 15 years ago I frequented a bookies and got friendly with a punter in there. He showed me a website he was creating, a subscription lay service. All the lays won! A few weeks later he looked a broken man.
In my very humble opinion since the creation of exchanges the markets are far more accurate as to what to make favourite and they seem to run accordingly.
Prevously I may have looked at a dodgy maiden favourite and layed it at a short price say evs and it may well have lost. these days it is more likely that dispite it's unappealing profile it's a case that the've found the right race for it and it wins anyway.
Nowadays I very rarely lay anything outright, perhaps once or twice a year? However if and when that happens I would not lay a price bigger than 6/4 so that the 'damage' to myself is minmal.
One obvious problem with this system that the seller is promoting, he is advocating selecting a favourite with winning form in it's last races. It could very well be that it is progressive and may win again, take on at your peril. But even laying at 3 or 4 get a few that win your profits are soon wiped out.
Laying System - Unbelievable Propaganda
It doesn't really matter what the details of the system is, no simple system like that can ever make money.
It is surprising though, that there are just three courses in the country whose winning favourites are above the threshold.
My guess is that he tested the system for a very short period of time on a small number of meetings, it made a loss, and he worked out that if he excluded those three meetings it would be in profit. He then decided to stop testing and sell before it starts losing.
It is surprising though, that there are just three courses in the country whose winning favourites are above the threshold.
My guess is that he tested the system for a very short period of time on a small number of meetings, it made a loss, and he worked out that if he excluded those three meetings it would be in profit. He then decided to stop testing and sell before it starts losing.
equally surprising that on that basis (and the fact that <1m 4f races should be avoided, as they produce too many winners) is that he didn't sell it as a BACK system, based on those 3 courses. Here's what that revised system would have looked like:
1. Select races at Ascot, Windsor and Cheltenham
2. Ensure all races are 1m 4f or less
3. Ensure field is less than 9 runners
4. Fav should be on odds of 3 or less
5. Ensure fave did not win last race
Bingo -his second multi-platinum ebook (limited to 3 copies)
It`s possible to use the criteria from the OP on the Adrian Massey site within the Favourites/Custom report section where you can include or exclude as you wish.
Surprisingly this looks to be the overall results for the past few years:
Surprisingly this looks to be the overall results for the past few years:
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Yes, you can include all the winners and exclude most of the losers to get impressive results.
