Hi all,
Could anyone advice me which site is more accurate as I find differences in going on timeform and racing post for example today 17/8/2018 14:25 newbury (enigmatic) racing post shows in race records previous race going good to firm but timeform for same dates shows good so don't know what to trust... is there any other source with exact data? Thanks
going trouble
https://www.britishhorseracing.com/racing-updates/ Official upto date Going is here
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danny74danny
- Posts: 10
- Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 9:57 am
it seems that racing post is more accurate info on timeform a bit misleading or unless I would have to subscribe to get it correct anyway many thanks for reply
Its not only going that can be wrong.
I know from experience the RP sometimes prints wrong winning time taken for race.
eg can be 15secs too fast for a 2m4f race.
Unless horse is Pegasus.
After watching the recording of this race which has its own countdown timer(so no stopwatch required)
confirmed was too fast.
I know from experience the RP sometimes prints wrong winning time taken for race.
eg can be 15secs too fast for a 2m4f race.
Unless horse is Pegasus.
After watching the recording of this race which has its own countdown timer(so no stopwatch required)
confirmed was too fast.
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danny74danny
- Posts: 10
- Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 9:57 am
good to know thanks looks like its hard to get everything right from one source only
If you keep a record of winning times
for each course, distance etc
maybe a starting point
that way wil flag up any "strange times"
However I will add, and this is very true.
Once I was updating times etc
I tended to look at the time of race , going etc
and not at the horse.
Anyway I put in the winning time
Thought nah,must be, wrong winning time, wrong going etc
Looked across on screen to horse.
BEST MATE
Wasnt its first race but early on in its career
Watched race. timed it.
Cantered round!!!!!!!!!!
The rest is history
for each course, distance etc
maybe a starting point
that way wil flag up any "strange times"
However I will add, and this is very true.
Once I was updating times etc
I tended to look at the time of race , going etc
and not at the horse.
Anyway I put in the winning time
Thought nah,must be, wrong winning time, wrong going etc
Looked across on screen to horse.
BEST MATE
Wasnt its first race but early on in its career
Watched race. timed it.
Cantered round!!!!!!!!!!
The rest is history
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
This is a difficult subject... timeform are far more likely to be more accurate.. closer to the actual going.. they will calculate their going by race finishing times... only problem is if there is just one 1 stretch in the race with a different going this could give a false account.
It’s like good (good to firm in places) there could be just one patch of good to firm or in some cases 10 patches on one track.
I think personally although not ideal and not sure if even possible but if every track had a going stick reading at every furlong poll and was take after each and every race.
Would solve this problem. Trust me though because Quite regularly you could see the words Soft when it really is Good (good to firm)
Going readings can be subjective too.
Additionally a track which has a 3 day event where first two days are soft. If dries out people think it’s wuicker than it actually usually is.
Bit like running your hand under cold water when your hot.
Than doing it again, running your hand under cold when your cold.
Same temperatures but feels different.
Racing have just failed to keep up with technology tbf. Look how much F1 has improved its tech. Racing needs to do the same.
It’s like good (good to firm in places) there could be just one patch of good to firm or in some cases 10 patches on one track.
I think personally although not ideal and not sure if even possible but if every track had a going stick reading at every furlong poll and was take after each and every race.
Would solve this problem. Trust me though because Quite regularly you could see the words Soft when it really is Good (good to firm)
Going readings can be subjective too.
Additionally a track which has a 3 day event where first two days are soft. If dries out people think it’s wuicker than it actually usually is.
Bit like running your hand under cold water when your hot.
Than doing it again, running your hand under cold when your cold.
Same temperatures but feels different.
Racing have just failed to keep up with technology tbf. Look how much F1 has improved its tech. Racing needs to do the same.
Hi SHR
By the way .Thanks for tip Terry Rules
Had bet on it.
However did win twice afterwards ? NP
I know info is thin on ground sometimes.
Regarding the OP I think you should work with someone
for free who may also work for free
This post is time stamped.
fridge for beer
Going-all weather carpet
Time- average RP time 5 seconds
Distance-sprint
By the way .Thanks for tip Terry Rules
Had bet on it.
However did win twice afterwards ? NP
I know info is thin on ground sometimes.
Regarding the OP I think you should work with someone
for free who may also work for free
This post is time stamped.
fridge for beer
Going-all weather carpet
Time- average RP time 5 seconds
Distance-sprint
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Pace is a huge factor too.
Although timeform would consider this.
There are different variations of of pace. For example.
Slowly run races.
Slow-slow-Fast
Slow-fast-slow
Even- Slow- Fast
Fast- Slow- Even etc etc
Than you have Even run races but are actually
Slow-slow-Fast
Slow-fast-slow
Even- Slow- Fast
Fast- Slow- Even etc etc
Then your fast run races the same.
Without sectionals it’s guess work.
A horse running in a Group 1 most of the time will show its best speed rating, even if it finishes 10 lengths last.
Whereas In a class 3 it might win easily.
The better the race the better the set of pace.
A group 1 slowly run race- is similarly to an evenly run class 3.
This is why time figures have massive faults, highest speed ratings for a horse usually comes in their toughest races. Not because they ran better but simply because they had to just maintain there best stamina and speed.
It’s why pacemakers are put into high quality races. To make sure the horse who is the best gets the job done.
I backed Libertarian to win the Dante a fair few years back at 33/1. One of the best bets I ever did.
It had everything, but because the illusion that he couldn’t win a poorer race people thought it was impossible to win a Group 2 derby trial.
You see a lot of this happen all year round horses finishing 2nd/3rd and then win when put into tough races. Tactical races can get any horse beat and they usually do.
Anyway the point of my post is... because a race may be classed as evenly run... it could have actually been slow-slow- fast which = a even finish time. Where as a previous even run race on the same day was actually Even- Even- Even.
If you had a 2 horse race and the last runs both recorded a speed rating of 90. The paper and commentary says both of there races where evenly run.
If you saw this instead which would you back
Horse A- Evenly run (race tactics- Slow-Slow- Fast)
Horse B- Evenly Run (race tactics- Even- Even- Fast)
Yet they both produced the same Speed rating (finishing time) of 90 at the same track on the same going.
Horse A is a different class.
Although timeform would consider this.
There are different variations of of pace. For example.
Slowly run races.
Slow-slow-Fast
Slow-fast-slow
Even- Slow- Fast
Fast- Slow- Even etc etc
Than you have Even run races but are actually
Slow-slow-Fast
Slow-fast-slow
Even- Slow- Fast
Fast- Slow- Even etc etc
Then your fast run races the same.
Without sectionals it’s guess work.
A horse running in a Group 1 most of the time will show its best speed rating, even if it finishes 10 lengths last.
Whereas In a class 3 it might win easily.
The better the race the better the set of pace.
A group 1 slowly run race- is similarly to an evenly run class 3.
This is why time figures have massive faults, highest speed ratings for a horse usually comes in their toughest races. Not because they ran better but simply because they had to just maintain there best stamina and speed.
It’s why pacemakers are put into high quality races. To make sure the horse who is the best gets the job done.
I backed Libertarian to win the Dante a fair few years back at 33/1. One of the best bets I ever did.
It had everything, but because the illusion that he couldn’t win a poorer race people thought it was impossible to win a Group 2 derby trial.
You see a lot of this happen all year round horses finishing 2nd/3rd and then win when put into tough races. Tactical races can get any horse beat and they usually do.
Anyway the point of my post is... because a race may be classed as evenly run... it could have actually been slow-slow- fast which = a even finish time. Where as a previous even run race on the same day was actually Even- Even- Even.
If you had a 2 horse race and the last runs both recorded a speed rating of 90. The paper and commentary says both of there races where evenly run.
If you saw this instead which would you back
Horse A- Evenly run (race tactics- Slow-Slow- Fast)
Horse B- Evenly Run (race tactics- Even- Even- Fast)
Yet they both produced the same Speed rating (finishing time) of 90 at the same track on the same going.
Horse A is a different class.
Last edited by SeaHorseRacing on Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Sorry for completely highjacking this thread but it may come use to some.
When you look at a races previous form and you have the following.
2 identical races. Same track, same going, same temperature and same pace shape etc..
If you dig deeper you will notice that although it’s a class 4 handicap rated 0-70.
Race A. Who led the race was rated 55 and the horse pressing the pace was rated 62.
Yet in the other race B. The horse who led was rated 68 and the horse pressing the pace was rated 70.
I have researched this allot. You get different race times which would make sense.
Aw- is perfect example.
If we have 30 examples where as. Same track, same distance, same going, same weather etc. With the same rating of the horse who leads the race and the same rating of the horse who pressed the pace you than discover this happens.
The finishing times of all the races have their own little pockets.
59.58
59.58
59.59
Then the 4th fast race ever recorded jumps a chunk and shows like this
59.45
59.45
59.41
59. 38
Than the 8th fastest race jumps a pocket and looks like this.
59.28
59. 27
59.26
Etc etc
However did you know that 59.45 to 59.18 is actually an even pace.
That’s because although it was even. They all had different running style races.
Every class I have researched has shown this.
Than if you dig a little deeper these races which have grouped together you will find the front runners have jumped from wide stalls. Or a horse led for first furlong but than steadied back.
You start to see how such tiny margins have a huge impact on a race.
Just from the finishing time it is very possible to work out the pace shape of the race.
If anyone checks out ATR website it shows the sectional times for Aw racing and it shows the pace shape.. like Slow/slow-Fast. The match up identical most of the time just looking at the results from the sample example.
It’s possible to know the pace shape of a race by its finding time.
Anyway been working on it for years and fascinated me. Night folks
When you look at a races previous form and you have the following.
2 identical races. Same track, same going, same temperature and same pace shape etc..
If you dig deeper you will notice that although it’s a class 4 handicap rated 0-70.
Race A. Who led the race was rated 55 and the horse pressing the pace was rated 62.
Yet in the other race B. The horse who led was rated 68 and the horse pressing the pace was rated 70.
I have researched this allot. You get different race times which would make sense.
Aw- is perfect example.
If we have 30 examples where as. Same track, same distance, same going, same weather etc. With the same rating of the horse who leads the race and the same rating of the horse who pressed the pace you than discover this happens.
The finishing times of all the races have their own little pockets.
59.58
59.58
59.59
Then the 4th fast race ever recorded jumps a chunk and shows like this
59.45
59.45
59.41
59. 38
Than the 8th fastest race jumps a pocket and looks like this.
59.28
59. 27
59.26
Etc etc
However did you know that 59.45 to 59.18 is actually an even pace.
That’s because although it was even. They all had different running style races.
Every class I have researched has shown this.
Than if you dig a little deeper these races which have grouped together you will find the front runners have jumped from wide stalls. Or a horse led for first furlong but than steadied back.
You start to see how such tiny margins have a huge impact on a race.
Just from the finishing time it is very possible to work out the pace shape of the race.
If anyone checks out ATR website it shows the sectional times for Aw racing and it shows the pace shape.. like Slow/slow-Fast. The match up identical most of the time just looking at the results from the sample example.
It’s possible to know the pace shape of a race by its finding time.
Anyway been working on it for years and fascinated me. Night folks
Last edited by SeaHorseRacing on Fri Aug 17, 2018 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm