Who wants to share some edges.

[ShaunWhite]

The best analysis would be to look at the excess win rate, by assigning each favourite a value of (1*(DID IT WIN)-(1/ODDS))

That is actually such a beautiful way to do it !

I don't quite get it....

So for straight betting eg..
bsp,res,excess win rate
3.159 WIN = 0.683444128
2.191 WIN = 0.543587403
4.800 LOS = -1.208333333
4.000 LOS = -1.25
1.502 WIN = 0.334221039
3.500 LOS = -1.285714286
So the excess win rate is = -2.18279505

(excuse the precision it was a cut and paste job)

But if trading, do you create an implied odds from your P&L, ie the 'oods' your traded amount returned? Where do the odds come from on a trade?
And does 'DID IT WIN' become 'WAS IT PROFITABLE' ?

[foxwood]

The best analysis would be to look at the excess win rate, by assigning each favourite a value of (1*(DID IT WIN)-(1/ODDS))

That is actually such a beautiful way to do it !

Well i'm having a totally thick moment - can someone explain in simple words what the value derived actually means ?

Win rate is a term I associate with strike rate which is not the case here since deals with probabilities.

Let alone what is an "excess win rate" ?

EDIT: More confusion - Shaun's example above would yield profit using level stakes at those odds/wins yet "excess win rate" is negative meaning no edge ? Actual profit seems to contradict the magic number ?

EDIT 2: Think Shaun's maths is wrong - as I understand formula should give result ...
3.159 WIN = 0.683444128
2.191 WIN = 0.543587403
4.800 LOS = -0.208333333 <----------
4.000 LOS = -0.25 <----------
1.502 WIN = 0.334221039
3.500 LOS = -0.285714286 <----------
So the excess win rate is = +0.817204948 <----------

[ruthlessimon]

I don't quite get it....

But if trading, do you create an implied odds from your P&L, ie the 'oods' your traded amount returned? Where do the odds come from on a trade?
And does 'DID IT WIN' become 'WAS IT PROFITABLE' ?

Yeah, I think I've something wrong, cause this isn't right - or I'd be in Marbella by now

Straight backing a fav priced in the range of 1.5, just under 3mins mins remaining = 15.3%

[ruthlessimon]

Well i'm having a totally thick moment - can someone explain in simple words what the value derived actually means ?

Win rate is a term I associate with strike rate which is not the case here since deals with probabilities.

Let alone what is an "excess win rate" ?

The reason I thought it was beautiful, is because I thought it was a nice way of working out if the price was value - which would imply being onside with the "clever form players" - hence by default should be a profitable trade (possibly a pretty bad assumption).

.. because I'm getting so many wacky values, & my real edge benchmarks are massively underperforming what they should (looking back that 1.26% isn't very big)

[foxwood]

The reason I thought it was beautiful, is because I thought it was a nice way of working out if the price was value - which would imply being onside with the "clever form players" - hence by default should be a profitable trade (possibly a pretty bad assumption).

.. because I'm getting so many wacky values, & my real edge benchmarks are massively underperforming what they should (looking back that 1.26% isn't very big)

Penny has dropped a bit for me - sadly it doesn't (as I understand it) tell you about the value of a discreet price.

What the final nett total is telling you about your strategy is an indication of how much better your strategy is doing compared to implied probability. Positive is better, negative is worse. Magnitude of the number seems to give some indication of how much better or worse.

Not sure is particularly relevant to trading and from his question about level stakes maybe PW thinking it was a backing strategy you graphed ?

Anyway that's where I've got to and have inverted the formula and applied it to some lay strategies and got some interesting new numbers to play with now

Golden nuggets just litter this forum

[ShaunWhite]

You're right foxwood I'm wrong on the numbers. But it's one I'll have to come back to later..... And also try to figure out what any of it means.

[jimibt]

You're right foxwood I'm wrong on the numbers. But it's one I'll have to come back to later..... And also try to figure out what any of it means.

... meanwhile, bowlery awakes from his 24 hour nap and checks to see if any responses to his 1st post

g'nite all... off to polish my edge!!

[ruthlessimon]

maybe PW thinking it was a backing strategy you graphed ?

I assumed Peter knew it wasn't, considering he shoulda seen the exit was a control variable (viewtopic.php?p=166401#p166401)

So Peter, (just to confirm) all the exits were @ 00:00:00 - none of the letter strategies were outright backing strats.

Meaning, luckily for Jim, that reignites the "Prince edge"!!

.. but also reignites my confusion

[jimibt]

maybe PW thinking it was a backing strategy you graphed ?

I assumed Peter knew it wasn't, considering he shoulda seen the exit was a control variable (viewtopic.php?p=166401#p166401)

So Peter, (just to confirm) all the exits were @ 00:00:00 - none of the letter strategies were outright backing strats.

Meaning, luckily for Jim, that reignites the "Prince edge"!!

.. but also reignites my confusion

suggest a new thread entitled 'Princes Edge Conundrum' - g'nite again

[Derek27]

The best analysis would be to look at the excess win rate, by assigning each favourite a value of (1*(DID IT WIN)-(1/ODDS))

That is actually such a beautiful way to do it !

Thank christ Bowlery asked the original question

Amazing what you can learn on this forum, even if it's nothing to do with the original question!

[ruthlessimon]

Quality shitpost

I say keep em coming - I'm still loling at the first few pages

[ShaunWhite]

Shhhhhh !

[Wildly]

In the formula (1*(DID IT WIN)-(1/ODDS))
is the "1*" superfluous ?

[Euler]

If your values are numerical, yes, but it was simply a way to convert a non-numeric value to fit with the logic.