Risk of ruin calculations

A place to discuss anything.
pythonic
Posts: 65
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:20 pm

If I understand you right, then it is an accumulator, so you just have to multiply the implied probabilities of the individual events to get the implied p. for the acca. He is laying this, so his implied p. is 1 - p and you can use the normal Kelly formula.
Get him to read about bankroll management, if he is a professional poker player then he should be able to understand it.
His sports betting experience is probably in arbing, where bankroll management is not that important. But this is straight betting where losing streaks are bound to happen. And if you keep betting 50% of your bankroll on individual bets then you will wipe out your bankroll eventually. Maybe he feels unsinkable at the moment because he has won half a million in two high stake poker turnaments, but if his bankroll is wiped out in this gamble then he will be sad.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23636
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

It's quite hard for me to understand, but I used to have a housemate who was hopeless at maths, needed me to work out the bills between three people, yet he was one of the whiz-kids that wrote quality arcade games for home computers in the 1980s!
User avatar
megarain
Posts: 2049
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 1:26 pm
Contact:

Update:

IMHO, he is getting fucked over.

He is led to believe its a money-laundering operation .. they pay in cash, but want cheques for winnings .. but, thats just a front so they can get on.

The guy is an idiot .. hes laying his life on the line, for games which only sometimes trade 2k on Betfair.

It wont end well.

Here is tonites marked card :
soccer day 2.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
pythonic
Posts: 65
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:20 pm

Oh dear...
megarain wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:15 pm
He is led to believe its a money-laundering operation ..
If that doesn't raise a red flag than what else will...
The guy is an idiot .. hes laying his life on the line, for games which only sometimes trade 2k on Betfair.

It wont end well.

Here is tonites marked card :

soccer day 2.jpg
Wow, insane.
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23636
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

megarain wrote:
Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:25 pm
So, I have a friend, who is a world class poker player.

Hes just won 2 x $100k events, so his bank is now .. lets say $500k.
They're not Venezuelan dollars are they? ;)

You wouldn't think somebody with $200K would need to get into money laundering unless that's how he obtained the money in the first place, and his only means of income. :?
User avatar
northbound
Posts: 737
Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm

megarain wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:15 pm
He is led to believe its a money-laundering operation ..
I wouldn’t get involved with money launderers but, as a thinking excersise, this would probably be the way to go:

- Add a 15% premium to the accas, for example if B365 odds are 20.00, offer them 17.00. Even better, talk them into betting singles, so you can hedge on Betfair

- Get a device where you can scan each banknote they give you, to prevent accepting fakes

- With a bank of 500k, don’t risk more than 50k on a single acca.

- When it’s time to pay a winning acca, convert money into bitcoin and pay them that way.
User avatar
megarain
Posts: 2049
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 1:26 pm
Contact:

Thx for replies.

Gamblers generally distrust everyone .. I know my basic default is that everyone is trying to get +EV on me, and its my job to deny it,
unless proved otherwise.

Its easy to get paranoid, but, much like card-counters, at some point the money has to get out there - and if the deck is v positive they are counting.

In this case, if the bets generally beat SP, its not business u want - especially in the size etc.

Last night, there was a 8-10% ROR for the guy .. he survived, and won 30k, but had lost 40k, the night before.

He was involved in a high stakes poker tourny during all this, which extends into the weekend. No doubt he will sleep late (as these things go on till 1am etc), but will try talk some sense into him later.

He has all the slips for the last 45 days .. he can send them to me, and I could check all the prices taken, to SP, if I can find a site etc which records it.

That will be definitive proof.
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

This all sounds very murky. I'd be running to the hills to escape these people
User avatar
megarain
Posts: 2049
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 1:26 pm
Contact:

Todays entertainment.

Doesnt look so bad, its just about the volume.
soccer 6 oct.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Post Reply

Return to “General discussion”