Risk of ruin calculations

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northbound
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megarain wrote:
Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:15 pm
He is led to believe its a money-laundering operation ..
I wouldn’t get involved with money launderers but, as a thinking excersise, this would probably be the way to go:

- Add a 15% premium to the accas, for example if B365 odds are 20.00, offer them 17.00. Even better, talk them into betting singles, so you can hedge on Betfair

- Get a device where you can scan each banknote they give you, to prevent accepting fakes

- With a bank of 500k, don’t risk more than 50k on a single acca.

- When it’s time to pay a winning acca, convert money into bitcoin and pay them that way.
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megarain
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Thx for replies.

Gamblers generally distrust everyone .. I know my basic default is that everyone is trying to get +EV on me, and its my job to deny it,
unless proved otherwise.

Its easy to get paranoid, but, much like card-counters, at some point the money has to get out there - and if the deck is v positive they are counting.

In this case, if the bets generally beat SP, its not business u want - especially in the size etc.

Last night, there was a 8-10% ROR for the guy .. he survived, and won 30k, but had lost 40k, the night before.

He was involved in a high stakes poker tourny during all this, which extends into the weekend. No doubt he will sleep late (as these things go on till 1am etc), but will try talk some sense into him later.

He has all the slips for the last 45 days .. he can send them to me, and I could check all the prices taken, to SP, if I can find a site etc which records it.

That will be definitive proof.
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LeTiss
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This all sounds very murky. I'd be running to the hills to escape these people
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megarain
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Todays entertainment.

Doesnt look so bad, its just about the volume.
soccer 6 oct.jpg
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