Another Stupid Martingale Question

Don't chase your losses, it doesn't work. You will eventually bust your bank.
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jimibt
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callum - i think the best analogy i saw when pushing the badness of martingale to the extremes was the doubling your pennies puzzle: http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.do ... nnies.html

the takeaway conclusion is nice:

These examples show that doubling a number, doubling that new number, and continuing on in this way quickly results in very large numbers. Adding all those large numbers up produces an even bigger number.

i guess we don't have the luxury of one penny stakes on betfair in order to try it :D
CallumPerry
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jimibt wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:03 pm
callum - i think the best analogy i saw when pushing the badness of martingale to the extremes was the doubling your pennies puzzle: http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.do ... nnies.html

the takeaway conclusion is nice:

These examples show that doubling a number, doubling that new number, and continuing on in this way quickly results in very large numbers. Adding all those large numbers up produces an even bigger number.

i guess we don't have the luxury of one penny stakes on betfair in order to try it :D
I've seen the rice on a chessboard example before, it was in a daft YT cartoon that showed how a prisoner escaped with his life by tricking the queen into a bet she could never win or something like that; one of these stupid pub bet vids. It's shocking how quickly the numbers get BIG and if you're scalping in the last few minutes or doing something in play, you simply don't have that level of liquidity available!

That being said, I have a flutter with martingale if I'm out at the races. At Wolves, if I'm out with my mates at the dogs (very rarely to be fair) with no laptop (obviously) and no clever strategies with me, I'll stake £1 in the first race. If I bust £32 then I'll go home having a good night out, if I'm up after a couple of races happy days. I've been 3 times in the last 3 years and ended up £10+ up so about covered my first loss aha how many traders can still have a silly bet when out? Or do your brains never switch off, I've seen one of PW's videos where he says he can't just have a bet. I'm guessing most others are like that too? I figure if I'm in a position where I'm as muggy of a mug as everyone else, I may as well put up some sort of rules and have clear money management. I'll post next time I go so you lot can keep an eye out for some liquidity in Wolves ;)
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Crazyskier
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jimibt wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:03 pm

i guess we don't have the luxury of one penny stakes on betfair in order to try it :D
Hi Jimbit - long time.

Please don't underestimate what entering ''hidden'' penny stakes into the market can achieve. You may recall my penny-pinching posts of last year; well they are still going strong, averaging around £15 daily on full auto, with a particularly good week this week as below...
last 7days.jpg
As my Nan used to say, ''look after the pennies, and the pounds look after themselves''

CS
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Dallas
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Crazyskier wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:37 pm
jimibt wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:03 pm

i guess we don't have the luxury of one penny stakes on betfair in order to try it :D
Hi Jimbit - long time.

Please don't underestimate what entering ''hidden'' stakes well below £2 into the market can achieve. You may recall my penny-pinching posts of last year; well they are still going strong, averaging around £15 daily on full auto, with a particularly good week this week as below...

last 7days.jpg
That's a very impressive set of results CS I'm glad to see its still gone so well for you, you certainly deserve it
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jimibt
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Crazyskier wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:37 pm
jimibt wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:03 pm

i guess we don't have the luxury of one penny stakes on betfair in order to try it :D
Hi Jimbit - long time.

Please don't underestimate what entering ''hidden'' penny stakes into the market can achieve. You may recall my penny-pinching posts of last year; well they are still going strong, averaging around £15 daily on full auto, with a particularly good week this week as below...

last 7days.jpg

As my Nan used to say, ''look after the pennies, and the pounds look after themselves''

CS
CS- very good results and more importantly, amazing that you've stuck to your guns on that thro thick 'n thin. just shows that having a decent strategy, good money management and a flair for data analysis can reap rewards, even on penny pinching stakes - hats off!!
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ShaunWhite
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CallumPerry wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:29 pm
jimibt wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:03 pm
These examples show that doubling a number, doubling that new number, and continuing on in this way quickly results in very large numbers. Adding all those large numbers up produces an even bigger number. [/b][/i]
I've seen the rice on a chessboard example before, it was in a daft YT cartoon that showed how a prisoner escaped with his life by tricking the queen into a bet she could never win or something like that; one of these stupid pub bet vids. ;)
There's two sources for the rice/wheat 'chessboard' problem, in the one from 1256 the story is attributed to the inventor of chess who asked for that in payment from the monarch for inventing the game. They accepted assuming it would be a meager amount. I'm sure I heard a third one on the radio the other day but can't remember it, I think that one went back to the mid 5th century. Definitely before YT though :)
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Derek27
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Opinion is also divided as to whether the king, upon realising how much rice he owed, took it as a joke or had the inventor of chess executed for being cheeky!
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ShaunWhite
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:21 pm
Opinion is also divided as to whether the king, upon realising how much rice he owed, took it as a joke or had the inventor of chess executed for being cheeky!

Or he became a high ranking advisor apparently.....
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_a ... rd_problem

This thread has turned into "In our time" :) (the radio prog not the book obv)
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Derek27
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:27 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:21 pm
Opinion is also divided as to whether the king, upon realising how much rice he owed, took it as a joke or had the inventor of chess executed for being cheeky!

Or he became a high ranking advisor apparently.....
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_a ... rd_problem

This thread has turned into "In our time" :) (the radio prog not the book obv)
I bet he was crap at chess!

Ask a question about the Martingale and it's not surprising members quickly get bored of the discussion. :lol:
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MugPunter
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Thanks for all the esoteric philosophy folks!!
Back to the martingale stupidity and ignorance question, let us assume that statistically, my trading strategy had a 66% success rate and that on any trading day I was only prepared to lose 2% of my trading bank, if I doubled up on loss days, how long until I go broke?
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ShaunWhite
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_ruin

If you can figure out out the maths I think the answer is in here somewhere :)
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Derek27
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MugPunter wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:44 pm
Thanks for all the esoteric philosophy folks!!
Back to the martingale stupidity and ignorance question, let us assume that statistically, my trading strategy had a 66% success rate and that on any trading day I was only prepared to lose 2% of my trading bank, if I doubled up on loss days, how long until I go broke?
Depends what you mean by "prepared to lose 2%". If you mean prepared to risk 2%, you would never hit zero as you would always have 98% of your bank left, but once you're down to 50p you wouldn't be able to stake less than 2%.

A 66% strike-rate doesn't tell us anything - it depends on the amounts you win and lose.
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Derek27
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:53 pm
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_ruin

If you can figure out out the maths I think the answer is in here somewhere :)
This is the one the OP requires.

Martingale (betting system)

I'm no mathematician but I understood this paper and thought it's well explained.

I think the Bet Angel site is infested with a virus that has mutated and jumped the bridge to humans. Earlier today we had a member asking how to make money from betting without going to the trouble of placing bets, and now we have a member who wants advice on how to lose money and how quickly it can be done!!!! :?
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Derek27
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SHIT!!!

Don't read the last paragraph of the link MugPunter! :o
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gutuami
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MugPunter wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:44 pm
Thanks for all the esoteric philosophy folks!!
Back to the martingale stupidity and ignorance question, let us assume that statistically, my trading strategy had a 66% success rate and that on any trading day I was only prepared to lose 2% of my trading bank, if I doubled up on loss days, how long until I go broke?
just press F9 for updates
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