For those who believe in charts - can you tell where this is going?

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arbitrage16
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This is from Aplomb earlier today, 5 mins out from post time. Answer the question!

Bonus points for showing working :)
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to75ne
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nothing on it that will predict the future.
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jimibt
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to75ne wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:54 pm
nothing on it that will predict the future.
other than the title of the chart :D
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wearthefoxhat
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:43 pm
This is from Aplomb earlier today, 5 mins out from post time. Answer the question!

Bonus points for showing working :)
My bot triggered a BACK trade on that one @ 5 mins before the off.
arbitrage16
Posts: 532
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:27 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:28 pm
arbitrage16 wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:43 pm
This is from Aplomb earlier today, 5 mins out from post time. Answer the question!

Bonus points for showing working :)
My bot triggered a BACK trade on that one @ 5 mins before the off.
Race was delayed by 5 minutes so not sure if that was a good thing or a bad thing, but the big move was a later drift
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ruthlessimon
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Oh I remember that race, yeah a bit of a nightmare (I think there were 4 other runners at 6.0 :roll: ) - although I generally struggle when the fav drifts!
arbitrage16
Posts: 532
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:51 pm
Oh I remember that race, yeah a bit of a nightmare (I think there were 4 other runners at 6.0 :roll: ) - although I generally struggle when the fav drifts!
Ah, Simon, been meaning to refer you to PW's latest YT video, where he says that the number one thing one must have right for trading success is the mindset...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvOf8P98n_Q&t=20s
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wearthefoxhat
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:31 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:28 pm
arbitrage16 wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:43 pm
This is from Aplomb earlier today, 5 mins out from post time. Answer the question!

Bonus points for showing working :)
My bot triggered a BACK trade on that one @ 5 mins before the off.
Race was delayed by 5 minutes so not sure if that was a good thing or a bad thing, but the big move was a later drift
Probably all the profit taking before it went In-Play. ;)
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Gauss
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:43 pm
This is from Aplomb earlier today, 5 mins out from post time. Answer the question!

Bonus points for showing working :)
Initially I got the move right but bottled out for a loss, as soon as I did that it drifted, if I had delayed closing out for a millisecond it would’ve been profit.

I take more notice of what’s happening on the ladders rather than the graphs, the graphs only give me general information.
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ruthlessimon
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:07 pm
Ah, Simon, been meaning to refer you to PW's latest YT video, where he says that the number one thing one must have right for trading success is the mindset...
Yeah I thought that was a brilliant vid.

Although if I knew (like a hereditary lord :lol: ), I'd permanently have an edge with a 67% strike-rate - I'd never worry about the losers, even if I'm on a 100 trade losing streak!

The key for me is knowing how to detect when that 67% changes; or being able to anticipate how an edge will degrade (something I know little about atm). Perhaps I shouldn't even be worrying about this stuff!! I just wanna be trading for a long time :)
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Derek27
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:43 pm
This is from Aplomb earlier today, 5 mins out from post time. Answer the question!

Bonus points for showing working :)
People who "believe in charts" believe that the information is useful in conjunction with other information - nobody actually believes you can tell which way the market will go just by looking at a chart!
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Euler
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FWIW, I wouldn't have enough information to read what is going on in that graph as I'd need the others as well. But it does look like it's in a natural range of 2.50-3.00 but the current price activity looks like it's heading for a breakout. But without seeing other information I wouldn't precisely know. You can make some general assumptions but when you turn to the ladder you will start 'feel' what the market want's to do.
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Euler
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Yeah I thought that was a brilliant vid.
Thank you.

I used the 67% rate, just to show how you could be very expectancy positive and still screw it up.
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Derek27
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arbitrage16 wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:07 pm
ruthlessimon wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:51 pm
Oh I remember that race, yeah a bit of a nightmare (I think there were 4 other runners at 6.0 :roll: ) - although I generally struggle when the fav drifts!
Ah, Simon, been meaning to refer you to PW's latest YT video, where he says that the number one thing one must have right for trading success is the mindset...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvOf8P98n_Q&t=20s
This is the bit that I like: "If I worry about every single tick increment that's going on, I'll have a heart attack within a couple of weeks". :lol:

We've all been there when a trade goes against you - feeling the pain with each tick. :lol:
Wildly
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The volume spikes had pushed the price out. The earlier substantial firming in price had been on relatively lower volume.
Respect moves at higher volume as a stronger signal.
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