Most Profitable Long term

[PDC]

I am not sure how people can green up at the BSP as you can't know what the BSP is until afterwards so you don't know how much to green up.

The last traded price although close to the BSP in most cases can be different for example oncourse people can see a horse break poorly from the stalls and lay it before the BSP has been calculated.

[spreadbetting]

I think BSP has been quoted for betscalper's examples as it's a fixed point rather than to be tried to be taken literally. Realistically as long as you're closing bets are sent into as tight a 100% book as possible at a fixed time you should be getting close to true value with your offset bets, obviously they'll always be swings and roundabouts within those but you'd assume over time they'd even out.

[arbitrage16]

Given a decent understanding of market dynamics - i.e. how one runner affects the movement of the others in a symbiotic relationship (something that, from my observations and experience, not a lot of traders seem to have) - if you are choosing to take a green in play this decision must be determined by the various factors that contribute to runners drifting/steaming.

BSP has been achieved by that confluence of factors, so my position is that they must continue to be the factors that signal exit/further entry.

Any statistical rule that is applied has surely been derived from the average, and is useful except when applied to an individual market i.e. it's not useful at all!

[napshnap]

Hi,

Assume we are talking Horse Racing.

Is it more profitable long term on a favourite free bet too:

1. Let it ride and hope the 30% or so rule kicks in.
2. Green up before the scheduled start time.
3. Green up in-play if it DOBS.

Is there a rule of thumb or can’t it really be measured ?

Thanks,

I'll go for the first, cause if you selection already have value then why bother? Other two options just will make your profit/loss graph more flatten.
Most of my bots don't green up - less monkey job, more comission.