Most Profitable Long term

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BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Hi,

Assume we are talking Horse Racing.

Is it more profitable long term on a favourite free bet too:

1. Let it ride and hope the 30% or so rule kicks in.
2. Green up before the scheduled start time.
3. Green up in-play if it DOBS.

Is there a rule of thumb or can’t it really be measured ?

Thanks,
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

You're straying into the weird and wonderful world of market efficiency.
1.I assume you mean generally rather than on a horse by horse basis, in which case letting them run will return the same amount as closing at BSP because BSP is damn near correct over a large sample. (yet probably always wrong for any given horse, as the true odds on the day can't be known with that degree of accuracy). The set of race data over time is something I've come to see as being like Quantum Soduko, the sum is zero anyway you slice it, and yet each event happened in difference spaces and at different times. It's quit an intriguing set of numbers actually and I can't work out why it's always self fulfilling, yet.

2.Closing before that (at random) will be the same too unless you want to include judgement about where bsp might be and getting out at a better price, but that's the skill everyone wants. If these inferences weren't true then beating bsp /true odds would be easy. If anyone knows different I'd pay good money to know.

3.As for DOBs etc it's not data I've studied much but I didn't see anything that was obvious. The % of horses that reached a certain % reduction in price was a wash near as damn it. There doesn't appear to be a magic price or reduction that's better / worse than bsp. Thanks in part to the formidable skill of the tracksiders and race readers.

Really interesting question though and I hope you get a load of replies. It's definitely knowable and if I had to have a pound on it, I'd say they're all the same if done blindfold, and which one you choose just depends on your attitude towards drawdown.
spreadbetting
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Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Not really any rule of thumb because everyone's has a different view to risk and if you want to get nerdy you could even bring commission into the equation and that'd depend on the state of your account and PC status.

1) There is no 30% rule, a BSP of 2 will most likely win 50% of the time a BSP of 6 win 16.67% of the time etc

2) Probably your best option as a trader, as close as possible to the start time is probably best , but as long as whatever you do is consistent you should be close to maximising the free bet profits and avoiding the variance you'll naturally encounter especially as your free bets aren't likely to always be the same amount.

3) Unless you know how the horse runs you'll most likely be trying to dob horses that aren't front runners and then cutting short profits on others. If you want to DOB put the effort in to pick the likely DOBBERS not risk hard earned profits unneccessarily.
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ShaunWhite
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....and as a 'free' loss is almost as likely as a free gain, you'd have to ask the same questions about those too.

Finding answers to questions like this is why people go to the bother of analysing data and to say there aren't any situations where you'd be better choose 1 or 2 would be misleading. But as a general rule then as sb said, #2 is the sensible answer.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Personally, given enough time to test the different strategies, I don't think there would be much difference between them. Individual markets, in my opinion, are pretty inefficient But if you take the favourite as an average they are extremely efficient. A free bet on a 3.0 will win 33% of the time, green-up and you get 33% each time!
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BetScalper
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Some great replies!

Food for thought.

Many thanks All, :)
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BetScalper
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Hi,

Following on....

I assume the consensus is that it doesn't matter long term as BSP is accurate, so take it before the start across the board.

However, is BSP accurate in all cases, how do we know ?

What about a totally made up example, not saying they are correct by the way:

1. We know in general that 30% of favourites win horse races. They lose 70% of the time.
2. We know that in general 60% of odds on favourites win non handicap races. They lose 40% of the time.
3. We know that in general 25% of odds on favourites win in handicap races. They lose 75% of the time.

So, let assume my examples above are correct, might be, probably not, just a case study.

Therefore, if this was true based on stats etc would it not make sense to apply my original rules to 1,2,3 above example and (1. Let it run. 2. Greenup at BSP. 3. Greenup if it DOBS) or is it just back fitting and long term just take the profit before a market officially starts ?

Without asking anyone to give an edge away, just seeing if it's worth pursuing, as there just might be extra money/gold to be found in those hills.

:)

Thanks,
spreadbetting
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Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Thu Jan 24, 2019 7:00 pm


What about a totally made up example, not saying they are correct by the way:

1. We know in general that 30% of favourites win horse races. They lose 70% of the time.
2. We know that in general 60% of odds on favourites win non handicap races. They lose 40% of the time.
3. We know that in general 25% of odds on favourites win in handicap races. They lose 75% of the time.

So, let assume my examples above are correct, might be, probably not, just a case study.

Therefore, if this was true based on stats etc would it not make sense to apply my original rules to 1,2,3 above example and (1. Let it run. 2. Greenup at BSP. 3. Greenup if it DOBS) or is it just back fitting and long term just take the profit before a market officially starts ?
The problem with the examples you've given is that you're just backfitting to pointless stats so it's not as if you'd ever gain anything from it, if 3 were true we'd simply lay all odds on favourites in handicaps and rake in the cash. So I'm not entirely sure what you're trying to either prove or disprove.
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BetScalper
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SB.

Understood.

I wasn’t trying to prove or disprove anything.

Maybe I am being naive and don’t fully understand. But am yet to be convinced that in all scenarios you should green up a free bet before the off at BSP.

Thanks, :)
spreadbetting
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Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

I'm assuming these 'free' bets are bookie bonuses?

What do you do when you trade a profit normally , i.e you backed £100 @ 2 and closed £100 @ 1.8 leaving a £20 green on the favourite? Let it run, dob or level green? Realistically you should take the same approach with your bonus bets as that's most likely already the most profitable approach monetarily and mentally for you.

Long term, ignoring comms, letting it run or greening up should simply even out if we accept that BSP is a fair indicator off a horses chances, if you believe those odds to be incorrect then I'd assume you'd already be opposing them anyway. When it comes to dobbing I think you'd need to put in the effort to spot horses that may dob rather than simply assuming pre play odds will be spread evenly in play. So unless you put in the effort to assess each free bet individually you'll always be better off simply greening if we take comms into account.
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PDC
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I am not sure how people can green up at the BSP as you can't know what the BSP is until afterwards so you don't know how much to green up.

The last traded price although close to the BSP in most cases can be different for example oncourse people can see a horse break poorly from the stalls and lay it before the BSP has been calculated.
spreadbetting
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Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

I think BSP has been quoted for betscalper's examples as it's a fixed point rather than to be tried to be taken literally. Realistically as long as you're closing bets are sent into as tight a 100% book as possible at a fixed time you should be getting close to true value with your offset bets, obviously they'll always be swings and roundabouts within those but you'd assume over time they'd even out.
arbitrage16
Posts: 532
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:27 pm

Given a decent understanding of market dynamics - i.e. how one runner affects the movement of the others in a symbiotic relationship (something that, from my observations and experience, not a lot of traders seem to have) - if you are choosing to take a green in play this decision must be determined by the various factors that contribute to runners drifting/steaming.

BSP has been achieved by that confluence of factors, so my position is that they must continue to be the factors that signal exit/further entry.

Any statistical rule that is applied has surely been derived from the average, and is useful except when applied to an individual market i.e. it's not useful at all!
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napshnap
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BetScalper wrote:
Wed Jan 23, 2019 7:40 pm
Hi,

Assume we are talking Horse Racing.

Is it more profitable long term on a favourite free bet too:

1. Let it ride and hope the 30% or so rule kicks in.
2. Green up before the scheduled start time.
3. Green up in-play if it DOBS.

Is there a rule of thumb or can’t it really be measured ?

Thanks,
I'll go for the first, cause if you selection already have value then why bother? Other two options just will make your profit/loss graph more flatten.
Most of my bots don't green up - less monkey job, more comission.
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