Tricky Question (spoiler alert - involves session exit/profit options)!!

[jimibt]

Read on at your peril!!

Been actively participating in a strategy on the Place Market which when backtested, showed great promise after a considered testing period. Fast fwd to the present time and the observations of the test are playing out in the live scenario... All good!!

So, why the needy post?? Well, the observations have shown that this particular sceario/strategy CAN deliver between 2 and 3 points each session. However, the measurement of the session varies such that a session can deliver the 3 points almost within 3-4 races, or can stutter and take 6-7 races to deliver. Of course, there are times when the 2-3 points never arrive (such is the nature of the beast as we know).

So, onto the problem. On most days, the 2-3 points TARGET is breached within a small race window (3-4 races). This target is arbitary but is also pretty much a known. However, the party can be easily disrupted by a loser and thus a further 2-3 races are required in order to achieve the target average.

So, mon amis, my question. I KNOW it's bad form to quit on a target (been there, done it and advised against), however, in this case, the stats and results really do backup sticking to a target exit that conforms to a studied win percentage (as discrete from a ££ target).

What's the consensus on-here on following such an edge. I've always believed that an edge means that you cut thro thick and thin on the day, but this particular *edge* does seem to allow/encourage an exit strategy based on a number of positive results.

To put it into context, most days an exit COULD occur after race #4 (almost 95% on that). However, if that advantage is not taken then many times we hit breakeven or take the remainder of the session to achieve any type of profit (we can even/often hit a loss of 1-2 points after such a positive start).

This has been a tricky question to frame as i know how edges are defined and how to exploit them, but this one really does live inside a known boxed environment, so am very interested to know how others have viewed and dealt with this type of *bespoke edge*

[Dallas]

Does the strategy just suit the earlier markets
ie, if you didn't start it till 1/3 or 1/2 way through the day would the target still likely be hit after the 4th race (95% of the time)?

[spreadbetting]

So, onto the problem. On most days, the 2-3 points TARGET is breached within a small race window (3-4 races). This target is arbitary but is also pretty much a known. However, the party can be easily disrupted by a loser and thus a further 2-3 races are required in order to achieve the target average.

I'm not sure why you still want to stop if you know a further 2-3 is all that's needed to hit your target. Surely you've been around long enough to know that horses don't have a clue what race they're running in and the more races you run a winning strategy on the more money you win.

Obviously you've been very cagey as to what strategy you're doing, and rightly so, but it's coming across as very much some kind of recovery strategy. Unless you can identify some clear reason with what you're doing as to why you should avoid all races after hitting a target you must know deep down your reasoning to stop or strategy is flawed.

[jimibt]

Does the strategy just suit the earlier markets
ie, if you didn't start it till 1/3 or 1/2 way through the day would the target still likely be hit after the 4th race (95% of the time)?

Dallas -it does tend to suit the afternoon markets and only selects a small number of candidates withing that, thus when the later markets occur, it can be rollercoaster...

[jimibt]

So, onto the problem. On most days, the 2-3 points TARGET is breached within a small race window (3-4 races). This target is arbitary but is also pretty much a known. However, the party can be easily disrupted by a loser and thus a further 2-3 races are required in order to achieve the target average.

I'm not sure why you still want to stop if you know a further 2-3 is all that's needed to hit your target. Surely you've been around long enough to know that horses don't have a clue what race they're running in and the more races you run a winning strategy on the more money you win.

Obviously you've been very cagey as to what strategy you're doing, and rightly so, but it's coming across as very much some kind of recovery strategy. Unless you can identify some clear reason with what you're doing as to why you should avoid all races after hitting a target you must know deep down your reasoning to stop or strategy is flawed.

SB - you're right, been around long enough to know to not even expose this irritating question (and no, it's not recovery - how very dare you ). HOWEVER, the point i make is not that there is a small identified edge, it's more about knowing that when a given threshold is identified, then an exit would almost certainly be the BEST exit point (this i DO know).

Tricky and sounds a bit hockum pokum but is true.,. so based on the facts presneted, really do wonder how best to deal with this portfolio item (which could account for 30-50% of the day's p&l if controlled).

[spreadbetting]

Tricky and sounds a bit hockum pokum but is true.,. so based on the facts presneted, really do wonder how best to deal with this portfolio item (which could account for 30-50% of the day's p&l if controlled).

Based on the slim facts you've presented you should stop at your target as you obviously believe, and your stats show, that's bringing you the most profits.

[foxwood]

I tend to ditch strategies like that - some do certainly yield results in early races only but I've never concentrated on why.

As SB says, if the stats support it then give it a whirl - run the existing version and an early stopping one in parallel and see what you really get.

I'm guessing that you have found an exploitable edge but don't really understand it

Have a look at race type - early and late races are usually fillers around the main events of the day - maybe those are the ones that profit. Are they maidens / novice / jumps / sprints etc etc

Just to complicate it, given it's winter racing now, what will happen come summer ?

Good luck

[ruthlessimon]

As SB says, if the stats support it then give it a whirl - run the existing version and an early stopping one in parallel and see what you really get.

This

I'm a sucker for overlaying equity curves

[napshnap]

Jimibt, my guess will be that your strategy kinda illustrates (and exploits) distribution of races throughout the day by the quality (first races are bad quality races like maidens, stakes, beginners, amateurs and etc). If so, then I don't see why you shouldn't stop.

[BetScalper]

Hi Jim,

Like others said, does the following impact results:

- Hcap v Non Hcap
- Is there and odds on favourite
- Number of runners
- Volume matched on market/favourite
- Sprint v Non sprint
- Course
- Difference in odds between 1st to 3rd
- Jockey
- Trainer
- Afternoon v Evening racing
- Full moon

However, I am sure you have already looked at all the above.

Good luck,

[jimibt]

Jimibt, my guess will be that your strategy kinda illustrates (and exploits) distribution of races throughout the day by the quality (first races are bad quality races like maidens, stakes, beginners, amateurs and etc). If so, then I don't see why you shouldn't stop.

was thinking a bit about this. without giving details away, yhere are about 6 parameters that are weighted to arrive at the target races. one of those is jockey. potentially, after 3-4 races, jockey fatigue can wear in - even with the top 10 jockies in the country.... worth thinking about the distibution and potentially, the frequency of the pattern repeating with particular parameters

[jimibt]

I'm guessing that you have found an exploitable edge but don't really understand it

i think you may well have hit the nail on the head. i may only be scratching the surface by blinding myself to the fact that i could use some human intelligence on top of the stats based jumble sale that's thrown up... will look at how to both tighten and loosen things up.