'Betfair millionaires'

[Euler]

Based on my discussion with Bet Angel users there are quite a few who have paid more than £1m in commission, so plenty out there and some are on here.

[alexmr2]

I'm just curious, you hear of these 'Betfair millionaires' but what do they actually do?

Misunderstanding when I mentioned "millions in turnover" in the other thread I didn't mean millions in profit in a single year. You'd be surprised how much money you have to put through the market relative to the end profit. The turnover is also significantly more than your bank because you are putting the stakes through over and over. You can check this by clicking on the markets you traded in on your P&L stats. For someone trading full time as a career, they are certain to reach millions in turnover, and eventually >£1 million in profit after being in the game for some time

Using "millionaire" can be quite an ambiguous term as some people would define it as having a net worth of several million rather than someone putting millions of pounds worth of stakes through the markets

I have no idea what the biggest players do that apparently make that much money but I know they won't be sharing it. One thing that we know for certain is that 0.1% of Betfair users have surpassed £250k profit and pay the higher commission rate

[alexmr2]

If a tax is introduced on top of this [the Betfair Premium Charge], pros are going to be taking home what, <30% of their profit? I don't see many people sticking around putting millions in turnover through the markets just to get back the average household income.

Since when has 30% of a million in profit been an average household income?

My thoughts were that an "arbitrary" typical pro trader earning £100k in one year would pay 60% premium charge leaving £,40k and then be taxed down to £30k if both the higher rate PC and income tax applied as discussed on the other thread. The millions part came from assuming that to achieve £100k net profit, the turnover would certainly be over £1 million worth of stakes although the turnover is slightly irrelevant as it is completely different to a trading bankroll

[Derek27]

My thoughts were that an "arbitrary" typical pro trader earning £100k in one year would pay 60% premium charge leaving £,40k and then be taxed down to £30k if both the higher rate PC and income tax applied as discussed on the other thread. The millions part came from assuming that to achieve £100k net profit, the turnover would certainly be over £1 million worth of stakes although the turnover is slightly irrelevant as it is completely different to a trading bankroll

I regret not holding on to my trading records in the early years of using Betfair, but off memory, I had a bank of £500 - £1000 and my turnover was between £250k and £500k a month. Some of those months I just made £200, others I made a loss!

Turnover is an important statistic in relation to gambling profits but I've always regarded it as meaningless in comparison to trading profits. I'm sure I have a massive amount traded on break-even markets that I don't even log in my market database.

[ShaunWhite]

Turnover is vanity, profit is sanity.

[Derek27]

My thoughts were that an "arbitrary" typical pro trader earning £100k in one year would pay 60% premium charge...

It must be quite possible to earn £100k a year without paying any premium charge at all!

PC is based on your profit/loss ratio, not your actual profit. A trader/botter could win £100M and lose £99M - his commission could wipe out any PC liability.

[firlandsfarm]

Quants

I assume you mean an expert in the use of mathematics and related subjects, particularly in investment management and stock trading and not a long pole for propelling a boat, esp a punt, by pushing on the bottom of a river or lake.

I understand what you mean by the title but it's always puzzled me why 'millionaire' is used as a milestone or benchmark. I'd be more than happy if I had £900K, even if it doesn't qualify me to join the club.

So would I Derek but to say "Betfair ninehundredthousandaires" doesn't roll off the tongue so easily!

Since when has 30% of a million in profit been an average household income?

I know that's what he said in the posting text 'milionS in turnover' but I took the title 'Betfair millionaires' to be people who actually earned a million (gross?). If betfair millionaires just means turnover then there's loads of us who'd qualify. 30% of gross profit is still a decent amount compared to most businesses.

Shaun I was using the term "millionaires" loosely … it was not targeted to £1 million profit, £1 million turnover nor 1 million transactions, it was intended to just say "the big boys (or girls) on Betfair". There is no intention to be precise, I think most reading the post know who/what I am referring to. I understand in the early days they used to have BOTs trawling for books under 100% but I would have thought with the enormous number of markets today and the increased competition that opportunity is greatly reduced so I was just wondering what they do now. But I suppose they could be true 'millionaires' because I hear of some with over £1 million in their Betfair accounts.

I'm sure we'd agree once the wires are uncrossed. It's all just other people's problems anyway.

Why is it anybody's problem? … I only asked what do they do

I'm just curious, you hear of these 'Betfair millionaires' but what do they actually do?

Misunderstanding when I mentioned "millions in turnover" in the other thread I didn't mean millions in profit in a single year.

Alex, I didn't think you did mean profit and as I have said earlier in this message I was using the term "millionaires" loosely in an attempt to avoid a precise definition of a variable group of people but clearly failed from the comments trying to define a 'Betfair millionaire'! I put the term in single quotes to signify "don't take it literally" but that didn't seem to help.

Guys and Gals, I was just asking what the Betfair 'Big Players' do with their BOTs and money that's all … nothing more serious than starting an exploratory chat! I wasn't even looking for details just an outline like the <100% book comment I made above. I have my own BOTs that try to find and take advantage of statistical trends and I'm happy to make just £1 per transaction because there will be lots of transactions in a day. I was just wondering if that's the sort of thing the Big Players do.

[Derek27]

I understand what you mean by the title but it's always puzzled me why 'millionaire' is used as a milestone or benchmark. I'd be more than happy if I had £900K, even if it doesn't qualify me to join the club.

So would I Derek but to say "Betfair ninehundredthousandaires" doesn't roll off the tongue so easily!

Big boys, top dogs, fat cats, high-fliers, etc.

When I was little the term millionaire indicated somebody substantially rich. Now it means somebody well off. Eventually there will be millionaires that can't afford to get on the property ladder, and I'm just wondering when the term will be extinct.

[Kafkaesque]

I understand in the early days they used to have BOTs trawling for books under 100% but I would have thought with the enormous number of markets today and the increased competition that opportunity is greatly reduced so I was just wondering what they do now. But I suppose they could be true 'millionaires' because I hear of some with over £1 million in their Betfair accounts.

If this is your primary, original question what they do now from my experience is that the effective bots are not trying to get free money from the rounds, but instead they are tied to the prices at Pinnacle and other market leading bookies. They offer prices that aren't value compared to the bookie market hoping for fat fingers, recreational punters or traders looking to get out, to take it. And they take prices that are value in comparison to the bookies if anyone leaves a price hanging too long.

The new arms race isn't being fastest to overrounds but prices outside BF and predicting how they will make Exchange prices move. In the cases where Pinnacle moves before the Exchange and not the other way around, clearly. As both can happen.

The dynamic might be different for the horses, but that is at least my impression for my primary markets, football and tennis, plus a number of smaller, but comparable sports.

[firlandsfarm]

... what they do now from my experience is that the effective bots are not trying to get free money from the rounds, but instead they are tied to the prices at Pinnacle and other market leading bookies. They offer prices that aren't value compared to the bookie market hoping for fat fingers, recreational punters or traders looking to get out, to take it. And they take prices that are value in comparison to the bookies if anyone leaves a price hanging too long.

The new arms race isn't being fastest to overrounds but prices outside BF and predicting how they will make Exchange prices move. In the cases where Pinnacle moves before the Exchange and not the other way around, clearly. As both can happen.

Thanks for that Kafkaesque, very interesting reading … sounds like a form of arbitrage but with an element of risk when they wait for the Exchange side to be filled. I guess the model is that if the bookmaker side of the pair of transactions is at neutral value then if the Exchange side of the pair is not matched the bookmaker side will average out as no loss/no gain. I know some use BOG in a similar way but the BOG bookies are prone to close accounts.

I assume they have APIs into their bookmakers to automate the process.

I have never used Pinnacle as they don't do UK racing but I'm preparing to move into football next season so they have come to my attention.

[Euler]

Cross-matching killed, probably deliberately, any bots looking for over broke books a long long time ago.

[Kafkaesque]

... what they do now from my experience is that the effective bots are not trying to get free money from the rounds, but instead they are tied to the prices at Pinnacle and other market leading bookies. They offer prices that aren't value compared to the bookie market hoping for fat fingers, recreational punters or traders looking to get out, to take it. And they take prices that are value in comparison to the bookies if anyone leaves a price hanging too long.

The new arms race isn't being fastest to overrounds but prices outside BF and predicting how they will make Exchange prices move. In the cases where Pinnacle moves before the Exchange and not the other way around, clearly. As both can happen.

Thanks for that Kafkaesque, very interesting reading … sounds like a form of arbitrage but with an element of risk when they wait for the Exchange side to be filled. I guess the model is that if the bookmaker side of the pair of transactions is at neutral value then if the Exchange side of the pair is not matched the bookmaker side will average out as no loss/no gain. I know some use BOG in a similar way but the BOG bookies are prone to close accounts.

I assume they have APIs into their bookmakers to automate the process.

I have never used Pinnacle as they don't do UK racing but I'm preparing to move into football next season so they have come to my attention.

Where you see it most clearly is in markets where the exchange is inefficient and poor in terms of liquidity, and Pinnacle and their peers are strong players, such as the NHL. The exchange often have several ticks between the best back and lay price. You can clearly see it moving only when Pinnacle does and you can rarely if ever, that I have spotted, get a price on the exchange that beats Pinnacle.

[Kalumpus]

One suspects there are few Betfair Millionares, likewise few long term profitable individuals in any category. Otherwise the figures would be bandied around to attract more punters. Just a thought.