firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Sun Apr 07, 2019 1:05 pm
Kafkaesque wrote: ↑Sun Apr 07, 2019 12:08 pm
... what they do now from my experience is that the effective bots are not trying to get free money from the rounds, but instead they are tied to the prices at Pinnacle and other market leading bookies. They offer prices that aren't value compared to the bookie market hoping for fat fingers, recreational punters or traders looking to get out, to take it. And they take prices that are value in comparison to the bookies if anyone leaves a price hanging too long.
The new arms race isn't being fastest to overrounds but prices outside BF and predicting how they will make Exchange prices move. In the cases where Pinnacle moves before the Exchange and not the other way around, clearly. As both can happen.
Thanks for that Kafkaesque, very interesting reading … sounds like a form of arbitrage but with an element of risk when they wait for the Exchange side to be filled. I guess the model is that if the bookmaker side of the pair of transactions is at neutral value then if the Exchange side of the pair is not matched the bookmaker side will average out as no loss/no gain. I know some use BOG in a similar way but the BOG bookies are prone to close accounts.
I assume they have APIs into their bookmakers to automate the process.
I have never used Pinnacle as they don't do UK racing but I'm preparing to move into football next season so they have come to my attention.
Where you see it most clearly is in markets where the exchange is inefficient and poor in terms of liquidity, and Pinnacle and their peers are strong players, such as the NHL. The exchange often have several ticks between the best back and lay price. You can clearly see it moving only when Pinnacle does and you can rarely if ever, that I have spotted, get a price on the exchange that beats Pinnacle.
