I am about to start my journey into trading, I mentioned in another post that my wife is absolutely against the idea but we've managed to come up with a compromise.
My original plan was to quit work and give it a go full time but I earn a decent salary and have very flexible working etc. and she's worried that I will 'gamble' all our savings.
We've agreed that I will do it at the evenings and weekends only, with a starting bank of £1k for 3 months.
The question I am being asked is how do I know its working?
If anyone can offer any advice of share from experience that would be great - so where would I hope to be in 3 months to think that I am doing a good job and well on my way to doing it for a living.
How to define 'its working'
Xeres wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:13 pmI am about to start my journey into trading, I mentioned in another post that my wife is absolutely against the idea but we've managed to come up with a compromise.
My original plan was to quit work and give it a go full time but I earn a decent salary and have very flexible working etc. and she's worried that I will 'gamble' all our savings.
We've agreed that I will do it at the evenings and weekends only, with a starting bank of £1k for 3 months.
The question I am being asked is how do I know its working?
If anyone can offer any advice of share from experience that would be great - so where would I hope to be in 3 months to think that I am doing a good job and well on my way to doing it for a living.
All you have done is paper traded but you plan on quitting your job? I assume this is a wind up.Xeres wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:24 pmHi All,
over the last few years I have developed a very good machine learning model to predict the outcome of horse races. Using a few simple rules for dutching it has over 50% strike rate over all UK races in the last 18 months. Problem is my wife hates gambling, so while I have used it myself I have mostly paper traded in the hope that I could convince her that it works.
Anyway I thought ok so if I trade, it's not the same as 'betting' and she seems warmer to this idea. I am totally new to trading, my mind has been firmly fixed on picking a winner.
My question is does anyone use dutching as a trading strategy and if not do you think it's possible to turn what I have into one?
Graph your P&L after a few hundred trades. I think you can probably tell if you're heading in the right direction or not when you see it. I wouldn't quit your job unless you have 1000s of trades under your belt with a clear profit.
Why not try your hand at automation? This way you can trade even when you're at work.
Why not try your hand at automation? This way you can trade even when you're at work.
There are some comments on this thread that may be useful
viewtopic.php?f=17&t=15377
viewtopic.php?f=17&t=15377
Maybe I should have been more explicit, I said 'mostly' paper traded, I made around £18k in real money, which is about 1/4 of what the total was adding in all the paper trades (also around 1/4 of my salary). There were times of significant downturn which were hard to stomach and I often dipped out and lost more than I should have.
I figured trading would be more stable, downturns I assume are inevitable but at least with a trade I have more control over what I lose. My current system just places bets at a certain point in the day and lets them run through.
With my betting strategy 'working' was hard to define because some months it would make nothing and then in other months it would make £10k so doing it full time is just too unstable.
I figured trading would be more stable, downturns I assume are inevitable but at least with a trade I have more control over what I lose. My current system just places bets at a certain point in the day and lets them run through.
With my betting strategy 'working' was hard to define because some months it would make nothing and then in other months it would make £10k so doing it full time is just too unstable.
i think you actually know the answer yourself. basically, just spend as much time as possible on analysis of all trades and determine (if poss) when and where the downturns are occurring and look for the why's followed by the how's. in short, altho you are not looking for a plateau, you are looking for a stable surface from which to gain confidence and grow.
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ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
By month 3 you'd hope to be losing less than in month 1. However it's not uncommon for people to make a decent start, become slightly complacent and then month 3 marks when reality bites. Unless you have a year's money in the bank you don't care about, then quitting a paid job to trade before you're consistently profitable in the evenings and part time would be wreckless. Remember that iro 5% of new traders go on to make money, ask yourself why do you feel you can beat those odds? That 5% usually start with either years of industry exposure or useful technical skills.
You also don't mention your age, have you considered that you'll become a non-person in the eyes of the credit agencies? That means you probably should already have a mortgage sorted, and expect to be making your own national insurance and pension contributions.
Stay in the job you have and if after a year you've made money doing it part-time then maybe think about it.
You also don't mention your age, have you considered that you'll become a non-person in the eyes of the credit agencies? That means you probably should already have a mortgage sorted, and expect to be making your own national insurance and pension contributions.
Stay in the job you have and if after a year you've made money doing it part-time then maybe think about it.
Probably good advice! I will give it at least 6 more months before I make any decisions. If I do something I tend to throw myself in it, so I was thought if I am going to try it I don't want to have one foot out the door.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:28 pm
Stay in the job you have and if after a year you've made money doing it part-time then maybe think about it.
Luckily for me we already have the last house we are likely to buy and we are in a good position financially so I could take a year off without cutting back.
I don't have any experience technical speaking trading, my background is maths and programming.
Be fully transparent with your results to your wife.
You will know its working when you are consistently finishing the month with a net positive result.
At this stage you should be making withdrawals and no deposits. After some time has passed and if you have established yourself as a consistently profitable trader to both yourself & your wife you can begin to entertain the idea of depositing short-term to trade with more size before withdrawing it again at the end of the session.
If your first attempt of is unsuccessful, there is no reason to risk another grand until things are working, half it and see how you get on - think %'s.
The beauty of trading is if what you're doing is profitable your account size will scale up in no time.
A large part of trading is about risk management. Given the above there really is no harm in throwing the lion's share of your savings into a joint acc. which requires both signatures and agreeing with your wife that she should not let you withdraw them for trading purposes. Consider this or similar means as an option if at a later stage you decide you want more time in the markets. More experience will accelerate you on your journey provided you are tweaking your approach along the way.
Lastly, you should not take trading full-time lightly. Develop a business plan, monitor performance, perform risk analysis, etc.
Put in the work to make it work. And if it's not working, well, where you draw the line should be in your plan too.
gl
You will know its working when you are consistently finishing the month with a net positive result.
At this stage you should be making withdrawals and no deposits. After some time has passed and if you have established yourself as a consistently profitable trader to both yourself & your wife you can begin to entertain the idea of depositing short-term to trade with more size before withdrawing it again at the end of the session.
If your first attempt of is unsuccessful, there is no reason to risk another grand until things are working, half it and see how you get on - think %'s.
The beauty of trading is if what you're doing is profitable your account size will scale up in no time.
A large part of trading is about risk management. Given the above there really is no harm in throwing the lion's share of your savings into a joint acc. which requires both signatures and agreeing with your wife that she should not let you withdraw them for trading purposes. Consider this or similar means as an option if at a later stage you decide you want more time in the markets. More experience will accelerate you on your journey provided you are tweaking your approach along the way.
Lastly, you should not take trading full-time lightly. Develop a business plan, monitor performance, perform risk analysis, etc.
Put in the work to make it work. And if it's not working, well, where you draw the line should be in your plan too.
gl
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luckytrader
- Posts: 24
- Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:07 pm
Good job i dont have a wife think i be divorced now if she found out how much i have lost in my first year trading.
i love that your username is luckytrader and that post was your 13th -lolluckytrader wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:43 pmGood job i dont have a wife think i be divorced now if she found out how much i have lost in my first year trading.
I'm rather puzzled that you made £18K in real money (you didn't say how long it took) but still don't know if it's working, and why you continue to predominately paper trade?Xeres wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:18 pmMaybe I should have been more explicit, I said 'mostly' paper traded, I made around £18k in real money, which is about 1/4 of what the total was adding in all the paper trades (also around 1/4 of my salary). There were times of significant downturn which were hard to stomach and I often dipped out and lost more than I should have.
I figured trading would be more stable, downturns I assume are inevitable but at least with a trade I have more control over what I lose. My current system just places bets at a certain point in the day and lets them run through.
With my betting strategy 'working' was hard to define because some months it would make nothing and then in other months it would make £10k so doing it full time is just too unstable.
Surely the amount of profit you make over a fair period of time is the be all and end all?
If you're trading for a living you don't have to and it's not advisable to live off last months earnings so it's not crucial that you're monthly profits are consistent as long as they average out to a sufficient amount.
You also need to be satisfied that you can successfully scale up without adverse consequences. Good luck.
Now I am even more confused, you have a profitable strategy although without knowing what you are doing its hard to tell as it sounds like you are just effectively laying high prices which long term doesn't work. Ignoring that you have something profitable but you plan on quitting your job to trade?Xeres wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:18 pmMaybe I should have been more explicit, I said 'mostly' paper traded, I made around £18k in real money, which is about 1/4 of what the total was adding in all the paper trades (also around 1/4 of my salary). There were times of significant downturn which were hard to stomach and I often dipped out and lost more than I should have.
I figured trading would be more stable, downturns I assume are inevitable but at least with a trade I have more control over what I lose. My current system just places bets at a certain point in the day and lets them run through.
With my betting strategy 'working' was hard to define because some months it would make nothing and then in other months it would make £10k so doing it full time is just too unstable.
"but at least with a trade I have more control over what I lose"
