Horse Racing. Going in-play. Good or bad idea?

[ruthlessimon]

I have to say that despite (maybe) sounding like I know what I'm talking about, I'm a pretty rotten manual trader due to being way too indisciplined

For whatever reason, what you've advised carries unforeseen difficulties. I say we try thrash out what they are.

The obvious one I can think of is stress. Is watching every tick for new info worth the stress? Personally, no - hence why I'm a huge fan of a single optimal entry. Then, if we want to build a discretionary strategy around that, we can (i.e. front running our own strategy)

[ShaunWhite]

Is watching every tick for new info worth the stress?

Yes I'd say that 15-20mins of work an hour is worth the wage it potentially pays. It's not like you have open positions 8hrs a day.

When you've got an open position you have to manage it, not every tick obviously that way madness lies, but you need to be responsive.

'Stress'? You're seeing stress like one of Pavlov's dogs expecting a beating when it should be making your mouth water.

[spreadbetting]

I'd love to see the overall pnl's of the people on this forum. There's so much 'wise' advice given that simply doesn't tally with the real world.

Not a pop at any advice on this thread btw, just drunkenly coming home on the train ATM.

[Derek27]

I'd love to see the overall pnl's of the people on this forum. There's so much 'wise' advice given that simply doesn't tally with the real world.

Not a pop at any advice on this thread btw, just drunkenly coming home on the train ATM.

You can start by showing yours.

[TipTopTrader]

The part I don't understand is that if they use small stakes to learn, scalp, swing etc. Their reason for going in play was because it was a losing trade, and the classic line is I don't care if I lose it in play because it was only 2 pounds or 5 dollars etc.

But they won't take a winning trade in play and try and make more profit with the same attitude of I will risk the profits and don't care because it's only 2 pounds or 5 dollar bs line.'

I have no advice, and have made every single mistake you can make as a trader, but you have to at least be half honest with yourself about why you took your bet in play.

[ruthlessimon]

Yes I'd say that 15-20mins of work an hour is worth the wage it potentially pays

The key word, potentially. I'm just super confused by your position. For my sanity, if it aint stress, what's the cause of your manual indiscipline? The reason for mine (hence why I luv data ); qualitative variables are extremely hard to prove/optimize

[ShaunWhite]

if it aint stress, what's the cause of your manual indiscipline?

I like stress, what kills me is boredom. At least once a week I'd do something self destructive to stop myself falling into a coma. And being an ex gambler previously 10yrs 'clean' and I became quite concerned that manual trading was like someone chopping up lines in front of me everyday, and I know how that story ends.

[johnsheppard]

John, try this as an exercise. Switch off the PL column for a few races.

The presence of the PL column and especially the psychological effect of the colours (ie red being natures danger colour) I think are the most detremental features a trading system can have. Current PL as I said is irrelevent, yet I suspect most people have it displayed front and centre as if it's the most important thing in the world to look at. It will certainly make you much more focussed on the wisdom of your current position instead of thinking about exits judged on arbitary PL amounts like I'll exit when I've lost/made a fiver. By all means set up a little compliance bot to warn you if your position or current PL is bigger than you're comfortable with, but use it as a safety net rather than a crutch.

I have to say that despite (maybe) sounding like I know what I'm talking about, I'm a pretty rotten manual trader due to being way too indisciplined, that's why I'm 99% automated, but none of my automation bases it's decision making on current PL so you can see how important it is. I've also heard some highly respected and profitable manual traders say similar things so I'm sure I'm not a million miles off. In fact it was Dallas who I first saw talking about hiding the PL column as a training exercise. Although as he's amost certainly broken that corrosive psychological link with it, I would think he has it displayed as a 'fun fact' rather than it being particularly useful to know.

Sorry these have been a bit long, i'm quite evangelical about the usefulness of unrealised PL as you can tell

Thanks Shaun, that sounds all like very good advice. I've copied some of your text here for my Book of notes which I compile:) I can definitely see the sense in turning off the P&L...will give it a try...

I passed over the trading in the zone book, I did look to get it at one point.... Currently reading 'The psychology of Trading' by Brett Steenbagersomething ... while half way through skin in the game... gotta learn to finish one thing before going onto the next... I'll put it on my list to read...

I'm pretty good with not trying to make losses back after the event, although I have been known to do it....what actually got me into trading was messing with staking plans, programming simulations and messing with probability stuff, so I've spent a lot of time seeing the folly of that. Learning the hard way seems to make it stick best tho

One thing I think might be a useful feature in betangel would be seeing only unit values, rather than dollar values.

I'm only just getting into learning servants and guardian etc, but my plan is to start with trading only using servants. If my servant doesnt do it...I don't do it...that sort of thing...

Thanks guys, really appreciate all the discussion.
John

[Kai]

I'd love to see the overall pnl's of the people on this forum. There's so much 'wise' advice given that simply doesn't tally with the real world.

Not a pop at any advice on this thread btw, just drunkenly coming home on the train ATM.

I for one like to see threads where people are offering random advice and encouragement to others who need it the most, it's interesting to see everyone's point of view. People are allowed to disagree with one another without being dicks about it, I believe it's within the forum rules, it may even spark an interesting discussion which the forum could honestly use most days which motivates more people to chime in.

Or we could have Peter put up everyone's lifetime P&L under forum usernames to make it more awkward, I'm sure everyone would be honest about such trivial things, although even those that are sitting on -30k could have some good advice to offer. Of course, I would expect everyone with 10-15 years of trading experience to be absolutely murdering today's markets and paying Premium Charge tier 3 by now, otherwise they are complete frauds.

[ruthlessimon]

Or we could have Peter put up everyone's lifetime P&L under forum usernames to make it more awkward

The big issue is niche.

A genuine 10fig hft quant, might know jack about pre-off swing biases. To me, morally, that trader should not be offering advice on pre-off swing biases - I don't care how profitable they are. Ideally, they highlight the flaws (what parts of the logic don't they like, & why), to save others falling for the same issues

Everyone's fair game (includes accounts <£0)

The dilemma, it's not really in a good trader's interest to correct the logic. The more misinformation, the more anti-correlation - the better

[spreadbetting]

The dilemma, it's not really in a good trader's interest to correct the logic. The more misinformation, the more anti-correlation - the better

You'll find a lot of the people asking questions really only want answers that reinforce their own, already flawed, views so the more people reinforcing those the better

[johnsheppard]

You'll find a lot of the people asking questions really only want answers that reinforce their own, already flawed, views so the more people reinforcing those the better

I do this!

When one is uncertain brain wants validation. Not more uncertanty. That's uncomfortable.

Patience is probably a more productive behaviour.

[TipTopTrader]

I think its a good idea to go in play on these 3 runners at Ballarat today, race 1 no 5 Better Together, race 3 no 8 La Belva, and race 5 no 3 River Star.

I'm expecting all 3 to be fighting out the finish. Good luck Traders!!!

[to75ne]

I think its a good idea to go in play on these 3 runners at Ballarat today, race 1 no 5 Better Together, race 3 no 8 La Belva, and race 5 no 3 River Star.

I'm expecting all 3 to be fighting out the finish. Good luck Traders!!!

why?