Here's why you're failing to learn how to trade:

[SweetLyrics]

Why do people even care so much about how others perceive the markets? Talk about a distraction If it's helpful for you then absorb it, if not then ignore and discard it, it's very simple I think. People are just trying to understand the markets and find an edge, each in their own way.

+1

[jimibt]

I think that if you allow someone to rub you the wrong way then they've already won, you're always going to be on the losing side no matter what

Why not rise above such petty squabbles, that's the only way that you can really "win". I don't think I have a problem with someone having the complete opposite opinion/approach of my own, I don't feel the need to forcibly impose my opinion on someone else.

....

You can either focus on the positives and find things that you have in common with people or you can tunnel on the negatives and find things that divide you.

i'll drink to that -nice little media piece on the BBC today covering pretty much the kernel of this entire thread rationale -spooky timing!!

Why smart people do stupid things:
https://www.bbc.com/ideas/videos/why-sm ... s/p07r0zdj

[Euler]

Of course, you are completely correct.

[rik]

As of its latest iteration, it contains 1 word and 1 acronym.

so whats the word/acronym?

[Kai]

If I had to pick one word and one word only it would probably be 'visualization'. I see it as the key to building the required skill set for something as difficult as trading.

Mel Robbins does a good job of explaining the science behind it and how visualization can go far beyond simple motivation (if you ignore the clickbait video title).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iPFtZENEq4&t=

[prestburydreams]

That seems alot of writing to say not alot in particular I can put it much shorter and sweeter then that

The biggest and only reason people fail at trading is they do not have the mental capacity to trade like a professional on 2 pound stakes and a 100 quid bank you should never be out the game the losers like myself can be in and out in the same afternoon no need to spot any wood knots grain or trees just except a loss and have a exit strategy for when the trades go tits up

If peter Webb offered a free course to people willing to hand over their account details provided they traded a minimum of a 500 pre race trades and never went in running or had to top up the bank he wouldn't need a very big master classrom imo

[Derek27]

That seems alot of writing to say not alot in particular I can put it much shorter and sweeter then that

The biggest and only reason people fail at trading is they do not have the mental capacity to trade like a professional on 2 pound stakes and a 100 quid bank you should never be out the game the losers like myself can be in and out in the same afternoon no need to spot any wood knots grain or trees just except a loss and have a exit strategy for when the trades go tits up

If peter Webb offered a free course to people willing to hand over their account details provided they traded a minimum of a 500 pre race trades and never went in running or had to top up the bank he wouldn't need a very big master classrom imo

Don't you think not having a clue when to enter and exit might be a reason for failing?

Ultimately, you fail if you don't have an edge. Even if you strictly limit yourself to liabilities of 1% of your bank, your bank will diminish, quickly if you're a really bad trader.

[rik]

agree with derek, discipline will just make you lose slower if you dont have an edge.

all this exit strategy and locking in profit talk usually people that dont have a consistent edge.

if you have positive expectancy more often than not, mathematically you will be fine in the long run.
dont have massive differences in staking for example by not chasing losses and variance will be much less but eventually you should be fine, if not likely your strategies are the problem rather than staking.

[ShaunWhite]

No edge and bad psychology = Fail
No edge and good psychology = Fail
Edge and bad psychology = Fail
Edge and good psychology = Succeed

Then, the longer you've used the edge for, the less psych you need because you see that the result for a race, or a day, or a week, become nothing more than tiny wiggles in your long term PL. They are irrelevent and therefore nothing to bother about.

So ultimately it's just Edge = Succeed.

[ruthlessimon]

How do you know this?

Personal experience & liaising

Why is that?

It's a great question, I don't quite understand myself yet.

I'd label myself as a trend trader, & in theory, a well designed trend edge shouldn't fail; because arguably "flow based" strategies are self-fulfilling. However, this hypothesis was disproven mid/late 2019. For whatever reason (for my style), the market moved (on a pretty deep level) - & I've got a nasty hunch will do so again at some point. At its core, edges exist because "someone" is doing something fundamentally/consistently/predictably wrong - & with all the self help it's only a matter of time before they twig the errors, hence causing a shift

I'm not sure I understand what this means.

If you go to a casino, & you're a mug, they'll let you bet whatever size you want.

If you go to a casino, with an edge, they'll min stake/ban you

For me, the exchange is similar. If I am very easily filled, that immediately makes me nervous. It's about balance

[SweetLyrics]

Personal experience & liaising

You mean general impressions and hearsay?

It's a great question, I don't quite understand myself yet.

I'd label myself as a trend trader, & in theory, a well designed trend edge shouldn't fail; because arguably "flow based" strategies are self-fulfilling. However, this hypothesis was disproven mid/late 2019. For whatever reason, the market moved (on a pretty deep level) - & I've got a nasty hunch will do so again at some point. At its core, edges exist because "someone" is doing something fundamentally/consistently/predictably wrong - & with all the self help it's only a matter of time before they twig the errors, hence causing a shift.

Has anyone else noticed a profound shift in market dynamics during this year?

If you go to a casino, & you're a mug, they'll let you bet whatever size you want.

If you go to a casino, with an edge, they'll min stake/ban you

For me, the exchange is similar. If I am very easily filled, that immediately makes me nervous. It's about balance

If you think that the exchange is fixed, a game of smoke and mirrors where the big boys call all the shots and make all the money, and everyone else is screwed, then your best bet is to just walk away. I mean, how can you compete with a bunch of bots that move the markets about randomly, sloshing up the profits?

That's a huge assumption though, and one that I think is false.

[ruthlessimon]

Has anyone else noticed a profound shift in market dynamics during this year?

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=19992

Fascinating thread. but you could, rightly, throw confirmation bias at me

[ShaunWhite]

Has anyone else noticed a profound shift in market dynamics during this year?

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=19992

Fascinating thread. but you could, rightly, throw confirmation bias at me

I think that's exactly the bias you're falling foul of. Volatility (aka noise) is a micro phenomenon and you as a swing trader are looking at macro market activity (aka sentiment). I can't really see how increased volatility would affect you beyond just having a greater varience. Increased volatility is a natural consequence of reduced volume and as many strategies exploit volatility, it's not necessarily a bad thing. Correlation does not mean causation and it's easy to be fooled by randomness too.

I don't want to undermine what you've seen this year but we all know that most edges come and go, the difference is that you've had it happen to you this time. Get used to it though, it's all part of long-term survival and always will be. It's why you can never rest on your laurels and you need to keep the ideas churning over at a high rate and have your eggs in as many baskets as possible.

[SweetLyrics]

all know that most edges come and go, the difference is that you've had it happen to you this time. Get used to it though, it's all part of long-term survival and always will be. It's why you can never rest on your laurels and you need to keep the ideas churning over at a high rate and have your eggs in as many baskets as possible.

True, although if an edge suddenly disappears, you have to wonder whether it was even real, or if the profit obtained was just a result of randomness.

Incidentally, I suspect edges based on human behaviour are more durable than those based on fundamentals. For example, it was once the case that a profit could be obtained from backing trainers at the courses where they were particularly effective. That may still be profitable, or it may be that the cat got out of the bag and the edge disappeared. However, I imagine that edges based on human psychology are more likely to be durable, as human irrationality is here to stay (which might explain why swing trading has been profitable for many years, for example).

[George Bets]

Honestly I don't think human behavior can be regarded as constant.

Obviously an edge in general can and often will disappear, and therefore it is very important to recognize this as early as possible. That's always a difficult thing, since variance plays a role as well, but letting go of strategies in time can save you a lot of money.