General discussion : Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

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Jukebox
Posts: 1219
Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:07 pm

Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:28 am

Archery1969 wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:22 am
abgespaced wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:14 pm
Two words: Sweden & Switzerland.
Sweden, didn't they let half their elderly people in care homes basically die sooner than they should have ?
Its just a modernized Ättestupa

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Derek27
Posts: 8255
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:24 pm

My neighbours often have a group of friends around. Problem is the never turn up all at once but come and go sporadically. So I now need to positively identify each guest and keep tabs of how many people are in the flat any given time before calling the police. :)

alexmr2
Posts: 73
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:39 am

An interesting analysis of some stats and the bigger picture of death rates which suggests that the "Covid spike" was just a slightly worse than normal regression to the mean after a particularly long trough of seasonal deaths

I do think any information online should be taken with a pinch of salt but it's hard to argue against pubs being opened for weeks without masks and the death rate being down to single figures

https://youtu.be/8UvFhIFzaac

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superfrank
Posts: 2593
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:27 pm

"999, Police, how can we help?"

"I'm being burgled"

"Sorry, can't send anyone, all busy"

"There's 3 of them and 4 of us already live here"

"We're on our way"

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Naffman
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Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:48 am

Boris has lost the plot if he goes for a new lockdown

alexmr2
Posts: 73
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:32 am

Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:44 pm

We seem to be seeing confirmation of the concepts from Thinking Fast and Slow

As traders you will know humans naturally think with sentiment and emotions yet struggle to think in probabilities i.e. Scotland had ONE Covid death in a week yet half the country is being put in lockdown because someone died and that's very sad, but then if you were to look at the bigger picture of death rate statistics this is just the norm and the knockon effects (and deaths) from the restrictions could very well be worse than the problem they are trying to solve (availability cascade)

Someone on here also posted a nice Alan Watts lecture which also comes to mind that we can't change things and most bad things came from good intentions

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Derek27
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Location: UK

Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:17 pm

Naffman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:48 am
Boris has lost the plot if he goes for a new lockdown
Another lockdown would be better than going back to 1000 deaths a day, beginning to look more likely and might stop people getting complacent. People caught blatantly ignoring it should be retrospectively barred from the furlough scheme.
Last edited by Derek27 on Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Archery1969
Posts: 731
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:33 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:17 pm
Naffman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:48 am
Boris has lost the plot if he goes for a new lockdown
Another lockdown would be better than going back to 1000 deaths a day', beginning to look more likely and might stop people getting complacent. People caught blatantly ignoring it should be retrospectively barred from the furlough scheme.
Fully agree Derek,

Don't know about other places but where I live people are totally ignoring the rules and did through most of the 1st lockdown. Everynight in a nearby park we have upwards of 20 youths drinking, smoking something rather potent and playing loud music well into the night. The Police have been informed (not by me) but so far have done fcuk all.

spreadbetting
Posts: 2859
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:34 pm

1,257 hospitals in the UK, Derek, I'm sure they can cope with one death a day. The government have long lost the public's confidence so can't see many adhering to another lockdown. We'll just have to go with their first idea of herd imunity like Sweden for now.

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Derek27
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Location: UK

Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:02 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:34 pm
1,257 hospitals in the UK, Derek, I'm sure they can cope with one death a day. The government have long lost the public's confidence so can't see many adhering to another lockdown. We'll just have to go with their first idea of herd imunity like Sweden for now.
They can cope with the odd death but the person who dies can't. :lol:

I admit I'm a bit baffled as to why the infection rate has risen over the last few weeks but the death rate hasn't. But why take the risk? It's not simply a case of young people catching it and spreading it to elderly friends/relatives. It's a case of young people catching it, spreading it amongst themselves tenfold and increasing the likelihood of it getting back into care homes. I haven't seen my mother since Christmas and when I see her next month (if she remembers me) it will just be 10-20 minutes. It's pretty selfish ignoring social distancing just to enjoy yourself.

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