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Maybe you could join a cult and convince yourself you're in one of the 12 tribes who'll just spectate from a mountain top while the cleansing takes place.
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Getting to the top of a mountain looks like a lot of physical exertion....im a bit suss on that plan...One thing I do know is that the other 11 tribes are wrong.....dead wrong.....The cult thing I am OK with...
Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer
- firlandsfarm
- Posts: 2720
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
It's a common tactic for shares as well, two market leaders. Maybe BP and Shell in oils or Ford and Gen Motors in … well in motors! You still need to decide which is the one that has fallen out of line to know which will move which way or do you double bet that they will both move towards each other?Diacritical Quark wrote: ↑Sat Feb 29, 2020 1:19 pm… look for positively correlated markets using a coefficient of at least 0.8 and mean revert the markets. You can take your pick between any number of markets, some of the most successful ones I've had have ben Aud/Usd v Gold, Ftse v Dow, Ftse v Hang Seng and currently scalping Dow v S&P500.
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- Posts: 175
- Joined: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:55 pm
If they're "out of line" you just look to mean revert them, market direction doesn't matter one jot. Unless you mean you have to figure out which one to short and which one to long? I tend to use the % change to indicate which one is under/over performing and take entries based on that but you can equally use any number of methods or indicators, stochastics, RSI, Bollingner Bands will all tell you the same thing, or even the good old fashioned Mark I eyeball on a candlestick chart. Once you're in a trade it then doesn't matter if the markets tank or rally you're fairly well hedged. You need to ensure you hold equal value for each instrument though e.g. Long on DIJA index price 25822.4 x £0.50p per tick = 12,911 so therefore short on S&P 500 at 2998.63 x £4.30 per tick = 12,894.It's a common tactic for shares as well, two market leaders. Maybe BP and Shell in oils or Ford and Gen Motors in … well in motors! You still need to decide which is the one that has fallen out of line to know which will move which way or do you double bet that they will both move towards each other?
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- Joined: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:55 pm
I think it all depends on if it all blows over ina couple of weeks and virus is containes or isn't that fatal. If so there will be a bounce, there is soem overcapacity in motor manufacturing for instance so a bit of a shut down probabaly means full tilt production on re-start. I predict there will be soem review of extended supply lines which in my humble opinion have got too long in some cases.
If it does get serious by which I mean substantial fatalities then some industies will be badly affected. It is likly deaths won't be evenly spread, that coudl damage some industies and boost others, lots of inheritences for instance might boost holidays but depress house prices for instance.
If it does get serious by which I mean substantial fatalities then some industies will be badly affected. It is likly deaths won't be evenly spread, that coudl damage some industies and boost others, lots of inheritences for instance might boost holidays but depress house prices for instance.
- superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
from the Telegraph:
Those claiming that this is just a flu that will blow over need to wake up.
The government skipped the containment phase entirely because of economic concerns. This could prove to be a massive mistake as the electorate won't forgive such irresponsibility and it won't help markets anyway....dozens of flights from locked-down areas arrived on British soil on Sunday with seventeen leaving from Milan Malpensa airport alone. On arrival the passengers were not put into quarantine or tested for the virus, leading to fears they could now be spreading the disease on British soil.
Those claiming that this is just a flu that will blow over need to wake up.
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- Posts: 3140
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
I guess we all have different ideas of what's fun.
I've just learnt when people hit the panic button that's where the best opportunities are created.
+1superfrank wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:18 amfrom the Telegraph:The government skipped the containment phase entirely because of economic concerns. This could prove to be a massive mistake as the electorate won't forgive such irresponsibility and it won't help markets anyway....dozens of flights from locked-down areas arrived on British soil on Sunday with seventeen leaving from Milan Malpensa airport alone. On arrival the passengers were not put into quarantine or tested for the virus, leading to fears they could now be spreading the disease on British soil.
Those claiming that this is just a flu that will blow over need to wake up.
- superfrank
- Posts: 2762
- Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm
I wouldn't hold your breath on that one. The govt will have another Help To Bubble scheme launched in double quick time.
US index futures all limit down (-5%).
I literally can't hold my breath any longer, I need to exhale, the same as the market does. I can't bring myself to buy at the top but the top keeps getting higher.superfrank wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:39 amI wouldn't hold your breath on that one. The govt will have another Help To Bubble scheme launched in double quick time.
US index futures all limit down (-5%).
The best time to buy is when everybody is hitting the panic button and things don't look like they could get any worse and they do.
But a lot does depend on why you are buying. Anybody holding debt is going to be in trouble as are weak business that can't take a shock.
The decline in the FTSE is led by Shell and BP.
But a lot does depend on why you are buying. Anybody holding debt is going to be in trouble as are weak business that can't take a shock.
The decline in the FTSE is led by Shell and BP.