Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

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Jukebox
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Archery1969 wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:22 am
abgespaced wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:14 pm
Two words: Sweden & Switzerland.
Sweden, didn't they let half their elderly people in care homes basically die sooner than they should have ?
Its just a modernized Ättestupa
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Derek27
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My neighbours often have a group of friends around. Problem is the never turn up all at once but come and go sporadically. So I now need to positively identify each guest and keep tabs of how many people are in the flat any given time before calling the police. :)
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alexmr2
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An interesting analysis of some stats and the bigger picture of death rates which suggests that the "Covid spike" was just a slightly worse than normal regression to the mean after a particularly long trough of seasonal deaths

I do think any information online should be taken with a pinch of salt but it's hard to argue against pubs being opened for weeks without masks and the death rate being down to single figures

https://youtu.be/8UvFhIFzaac
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superfrank
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"999, Police, how can we help?"

"I'm being burgled"

"Sorry, can't send anyone, all busy"

"There's 3 of them and 4 of us already live here"

"We're on our way"
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Naffman
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Boris has lost the plot if he goes for a new lockdown
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alexmr2
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We seem to be seeing confirmation of the concepts from Thinking Fast and Slow

As traders you will know humans naturally think with sentiment and emotions yet struggle to think in probabilities i.e. Scotland had ONE Covid death in a week yet half the country is being put in lockdown because someone died and that's very sad, but then if you were to look at the bigger picture of death rate statistics this is just the norm and the knockon effects (and deaths) from the restrictions could very well be worse than the problem they are trying to solve (availability cascade)

Someone on here also posted a nice Alan Watts lecture which also comes to mind that we can't change things and most bad things came from good intentions
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Derek27
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Naffman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:48 am
Boris has lost the plot if he goes for a new lockdown
Another lockdown would be better than going back to 1000 deaths a day, beginning to look more likely and might stop people getting complacent. People caught blatantly ignoring it should be retrospectively barred from the furlough scheme.
Last edited by Derek27 on Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Archery1969
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:17 pm
Naffman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:48 am
Boris has lost the plot if he goes for a new lockdown
Another lockdown would be better than going back to 1000 deaths a day', beginning to look more likely and might stop people getting complacent. People caught blatantly ignoring it should be retrospectively barred from the furlough scheme.
Fully agree Derek,

Don't know about other places but where I live people are totally ignoring the rules and did through most of the 1st lockdown. Everynight in a nearby park we have upwards of 20 youths drinking, smoking something rather potent and playing loud music well into the night. The Police have been informed (not by me) but so far have done fcuk all.
spreadbetting
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1,257 hospitals in the UK, Derek, I'm sure they can cope with one death a day. The government have long lost the public's confidence so can't see many adhering to another lockdown. We'll just have to go with their first idea of herd imunity like Sweden for now.
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Derek27
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spreadbetting wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:34 pm
1,257 hospitals in the UK, Derek, I'm sure they can cope with one death a day. The government have long lost the public's confidence so can't see many adhering to another lockdown. We'll just have to go with their first idea of herd imunity like Sweden for now.
They can cope with the odd death but the person who dies can't. :lol:

I admit I'm a bit baffled as to why the infection rate has risen over the last few weeks but the death rate hasn't. But why take the risk? It's not simply a case of young people catching it and spreading it to elderly friends/relatives. It's a case of young people catching it, spreading it amongst themselves tenfold and increasing the likelihood of it getting back into care homes. I haven't seen my mother since Christmas and when I see her next month (if she remembers me) it will just be 10-20 minutes. It's pretty selfish ignoring social distancing just to enjoy yourself.
jamesg46
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Another lockdown is surely suicide for Boris to even contemplate. We've had plenty of time to get any hospitals adequately supplied for this flu season, but then again... we can't even get a test thats accurate so I doubt it.

Oh well, here comes inflation, another round of mass job losses and people not being able afford to eat. Do we lock down for good, or until we have a vaccine? How many industries can survive and is our system of mass produced food going to survive, we were already on the brink of inflation,

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... e-covid-19

I suppose I took voluntary redundancy at the right time because a second lockdown is gonna completely wreck the aviation industry.

Fooked if we do, fooked if we don't. What does it matter to us every day minions though, not like we have a choice.

I'll certainly not live in fear though Derek, I shoved their furlough money right where the sun doesn't shine back in July, I mean i would only have to pay it back in future taxes with a 30% pay reduction to boot and for what? No flipping choice. No thanks.
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Derek27
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jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:10 pm
Another lockdown is surely suicide for Boris to even contemplate.
All the more reason to have a lockdown. :D

We're really stuck between a rock and a hard place.
jamesg46
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:30 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:10 pm
Another lockdown is surely suicide for Boris to even contemplate.
All the more reason to have a lockdown. :D

We're really stuck between a rock and a hard place.
We certainly are & at this point in time I'd love nothing more than to have one of those log cabins out in the middle of nowhere :lol: 2020 has been ruthless and it doesn't look like 2021 is a year of new prosper.
spreadbetting
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:02 pm


I admit I'm a bit baffled as to why the infection rate has risen over the last few weeks but the death rate hasn't. But why take the risk? .....................
We all take risks everyday, their's just have bigger consequences . I was at one of the bigger, and previously busy, London hospitals yesterday, was pretty much empty, the staff almost looked embarrassed at their lack of work.
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superfrank
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The medical establishment has a vested interest in a cautious approach and minimising infections. But they get paid 100% whatever happens while hundreds of thousands of others who rely on a functioning economy face unemployment. Early on it was correct to be cautious, but this thing could be around for years. Time for more personal responsibility and fewer state diktats imho.

Teaching unions didn't want their members to go back to work (the members probably fancied another 6 months off on full pay). It's a good job the public sector isn't responsible for our food supplies - we'd have starved to death.
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