General discussion : Exchange games on Betfair.

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telboy5
Posts: 5
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2010 3:16 pm

Tue May 19, 2020 2:46 pm

Hi, Has Bet Angel ever made a bot for the Exchange games on Befair, or who has ? Thanks.

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rik
Posts: 755
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

Tue May 19, 2020 3:02 pm

if you want to be profitable stay away from any games. If there was a way to beat one, whoever designed the game made a mistake, your playing against betfair not against other people

garyk1968
Posts: 5
Joined: Wed Feb 14, 2018 6:55 pm

Thu May 21, 2020 12:28 pm

No and I tell you what I found many years ago. I used the API to collect information on all the hands of exchange poker, something like 12,000 games if I remember.

With a poker head on I was trying to see if there was an edge.... there wasn't. Doesn't matter which cards are dealt as hole cards, each 1 of the 4 players has roughly a 25% chance of winning (over the data I mined anyway), its basically random.

Archery1969
Posts: 486
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

Thu May 21, 2020 12:44 pm

I use to know the market maker for exchange games when they first started, he laughed all the time about how poor value he was offering but still people kept taking the odds thinking they had a system. I lost touch with him after 2015 but i am pretty sure he made vast profits 24/7 over many years. Dont know if he still does it or if Betfair took over the market making activities.

Basically, its a mugs game like those machines in betting shops. At certain points you might be lucky in spoting a short trend but sooner rather than later you will get burnt and end up chasing loses all the way to the poor house.

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