General discussion : Your perfect market

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Kai
Posts: 1535
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm
Location: Croatia
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Fri May 22, 2020 8:38 pm

Here's a few simple questions that anyone can try answering if they want to, big traders or small, manual or auto, bettors or gamblers too and so on.

The answer can be as simple or as complex as you like, as vague or as direct as you want them to be, you can either post here or just answer the questions privately to yourself if you want.

1. Do you have a perfect market? (by perfect I mean your favorite type of market, your ideal market circumstances, the near perfect storm of opportunity that you love to trade)

2. What makes your market so perfect? (the question can be as tricky or as simple as you like, if you are able to quantify and explain what makes your market so suitable for your trading approach then you can decide whether it's something you want to share with the forum, partially or fully or not at all)

3. How confident are you of getting a positive result on your perfect market? (for example, if you say you are 90% confident this could imply that your so-called strike rate is usually around 90%)

4. How often do you get the opportunity to trade your perfect market? (on a daily or weekly basis)

jamesg46
Posts: 820
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

Fri May 22, 2020 8:51 pm

This has a scent of you pushing people in the direction of a trading plan, be it your intention or not it's a good thread to start, I'm going to enjoy following this one!

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rik
Posts: 755
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

Fri May 22, 2020 10:43 pm

not sure there ever is a perfect market but horse racing for me,

as balanced a field as possible with no clear favourite
average amount of runners around 10 being ideal, whereas rather have 15 than 5
higher turnover the better

In running the longer the distance the better, high turnover and balanced not too large field

with the lockdown at the moment id say closest thing to perfect would be the big Saturday Australian races at Randwick, Caulfield, Flemindton, Rosehill that fit the criteria. If I was approaching conservatively would be rare to lose in those.

Archery1969
Posts: 486
Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am

Fri May 22, 2020 11:02 pm

rik wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 10:43 pm

as balanced a field as possible with no clear favourite

+ 1

Diacritical Quark
Posts: 108
Joined: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:55 pm

Fri May 22, 2020 11:03 pm

Kai wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:38 pm

1. Do you have a perfect market? (by perfect I mean your favorite type of market, your ideal market circumstances, the near perfect storm of opportunity that you love to trade)

2. What makes your market so perfect? (the question can be as tricky or as simple as you like, if you are able to quantify and explain what makes your market so suitable for your trading approach then you can decide whether it's something you want to share with the forum, partially or fully or not at all)

3. How confident are you of getting a positive result on your perfect market? (for example, if you say you are 90% confident this could imply that your so-called strike rate is usually around 90%)

4. How often do you get the opportunity to trade your perfect market? (on a daily or weekly basis)
1. Horse racing, handicap, 8-12 runners, fave between 3.5-4.5, 5th fave under 12.0, flat or hurdle between 5f-1m if flat, under 2m if hurdle, one of the first 5 ideally in an outside(ish) stall (if on the flat) with a slight draw bias on the track

2. Makes picking a winner a very hard prospect which comes in handy when I have a laying strategy,

3. My system is predominantly automated but if I'm about during a session and I spot one of these I tend to trade it manually, identify my selection and double my stake.

4. Hard to say without looking at my data, on average I'd say every other day, the draw bias part doesn't happen often, for instance according to most stats there is no draw bias at Tampa however having watched hundreds of markets over the last few weeks/months the races under 8f come off a very tight bend with a short home stretch giving what appears to me a very slight advantage to those nearest the rail.

** 30 day PnL max £2 stakes and I'd say 90% fully automated;

Image

Derek27
Posts: 7281
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Sat May 23, 2020 2:45 am

1&2) My perfect market is where you can lay a horse at 4.1, back it a split-second later at 4.3 and repeat the process. It's like having an orgasm. ;)

3) 100%, but just like sex, you don't know it was perfect until it's finished.

4) It used to be every Saturday at Randwick or Rosehill but this year they've gone off the boil. Hoping they pick up again in the autumn.

TraderFred
Posts: 20
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

Sat May 23, 2020 7:41 am

1) pre race horse racing, a predominantly two horse race (though not necessarily a two runner race), where as the front of the market looks priced wrong and a flip flop of the favourites is expected.

2) usually plenty of liquidity at the front of market, so getting matched not usually a bother. Like to see a slight move in the direction I’m expecting, though still with plenty of juice left in the prices before they flip flop.

3) never confident. As soon as the trades are in place I start to doubt myself, thinking I have missed something, thinking I’ve got something badly wrong. Any move into the red immediately multiplies those fears. Never confident until I have the green numbers in front of me.

4) rarely. There is nearly always something not quite right, a little bit of doubt, something that is less than ideal. And when everything does line up, I often find that they are never the best trades anyway. The best ones are usually when there is a little bit of doubt, though it still warrants the risk, and ends up paying off.

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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 1241
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Sat May 23, 2020 8:58 am

Horse Racing - Any race that has an odds on favourite

Football - Any game where the team in the Top 4 is playing at home and is odds on

Greyhounds - Any race where a clear favourite is running from T1 or T6 and has early pace

Specials - Any where the sentiment goes against the norm

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MemphisFlash
Posts: 1088
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

Sat May 23, 2020 1:32 pm

Not a perfect market, but a perfect day 31/31 Boom!!!
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 1951
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Sat May 23, 2020 8:27 pm

1. Do you have a perfect market?
Any market that contains a stable generic quantifiable bias

2. What makes your market so perfect?
Emotion & instinct are no longer relevant.

3. How confident are you of getting a positive result on your perfect market?
55% - 60%

4. How often do you get the opportunity to trade your perfect market?
Not enough ;)

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