Time for me to Make a Decision

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decomez6
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Diacritical Quark wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:56 pm
Ok, I've come to the long drawn out conclusion that I just can't hack it as a 'trader' so to speak. term profit with the kind of bots I can use BA for.

Anyway long story short I don't want to totally give up on my dream of making a nice little income in the sports betting world, .
1. Value betting.
2. Arbing.
those two are the begining of peters journey. so you havent given up , yor are going back to basics.
i am working on my trading and automation, and i havent given myself any timelines, i dont have to take any exams . stress is the number one killer of Creativity. so PAUSE when fun stops, take a walk, play an easy game or physical exercise.swich off the computer and jot down your plan on a piece of paper , hang it on the wall with a diagram representing your steps. CLEAR your cluttered mind , think of one thing at a time.the temptation is always lurking around the corner and you will never finish your original plan.
REMEMBER. its a game of Art and Science. enjoy the art and crunch the science.
how about this as a suggestion.
1.VALUE BETTING.
A. use the advance dutching tool on bet angel, mark your stakes, and back all.
go ahead and click the MARGIN maker.
use a third party software to find a steamer and mark on it.

B. this time use the bookmaking , repeat the steps above.
then use the third party software to catch a drifter.

in BOTH instances you are only required to make one correct judgement and the bet becomes free for you.

2. ARBING
using the same tools / dutching and bookmaker;
A. Dutching.
mark your staking preferences,
dutching is a process of backing all ,or a chosen within the all. but what you do instead is to lay all, this will in return back all at the current lay prices , so that when you submit your bets some of them if not most will be unmatched .
try your trading skills to make all your bets matched at a better price and when you get all mattched , you have officially become a bookmaker.
OR
you can use the automatic button to set your arbs , the atatacthments below will show you the tab to open to get a handle of your arbing automatic tool.

B. Bookmaking.
the above procees in reverse.

TIP>your P/L will show N/A . you can disable this by going into settings. the attatchment below will guide you. NB its not advisable,, but heck it! you are experimenting and may be the only thinng you need to create a ninche for yourself , go for it.

FINALLY
TRADING .
watch the latest video from peter. , i know you have exxplained something similar and you tried the crossovepoints,but the real message is Ratio of
RISK to REWARD. along topic, but if you grasp the fundamentals of it, you will begin to see value in areas you least exepected. so the link is to help you wtach the video again.

HOPE That helps, it keeps me going.


https://youtu.be/MkCAFFFclic
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wearthefoxhat
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A couple of things I can add;

If you have an expectation to make £100 a week from gambling/trading, and you're down £100 in the first 2 days...then disappointment is triggered, and loss chasing to "get back to even" begins...sometimes achieved, sometimes a bigger hole is made.

Having expectation(s) can lead to disappointment(s). It's the prime emotion we all have, in life, in relationships, in ourselves, in others. Recognising it and understanding it is the key.

expectations.jpg
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Diacritical Quark
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A couple of interesting perspectives there, thank you. I think since my last bot melted and I tried manual trading again I felt no closer to achieving my goals than I did on day 1. Certainly frustrating but I have at least bought quite a few of you here some beers over the past few weeks in a round about sort of way :lol: I slept on it and figured out 2 things, value betting isn't going to sit right with me due to the variance involved. Arbing I think you need a fairly hefty account to get a half decent return.

Today has been back to the drawing board, day 1 with a new bot.
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Kai
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Only read the opening post but just master one market? Study it and learn everything about it, if that's too wide then just master one situation on one market? You only need one to get going.

No real shorter way to get that specialist knowledge.
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ShaunWhite
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It's pretty normal to flit between styles/sports/methods when you're struggling. As kai said, all you have to do is one thing well.

You mention automation, that's often seen as the easy out for people with control issues but it's a whole different world of knowledge and skills at least has hard, if not harder, than manual trading. Having an idea and running a bot for a few hundred races isn't going to tell you much regardless of it winning or losing so in a month's time you'll be no further on. But if you want to go that way, then learn the formal methods, analytical techniques and statistics etc and do it properly, don't just go at it half arsed or it'll be equally fruitless unless you're jammy enough to chance upon something.

Pick anything you like, anything you're interested in, and something that you feel you'll still be enjoying doing in 3,4,5 years and just rinse it. Profitable traders usually specialise in a certain sport traded a certain way or at least started that way. Don't be influenced by celebrity traders or even what you see people doing here, find your own groove and own it. I don't know anyone who's sucessful that hasn't done it that way.
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Kai
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My last post probably too vague. This is what I meant in short.

1. Identify expert performers in your market (just one market), if you're getting nowhere studying the market yourself.

2. Identify which skills and skill sets the experts use, and where the edge comes from, break it all down if too complex.

3. Start developing these necessary skills yourself through meaningful deliberate practice, so that you are able to trade this market as well.

4. Never give up on the market until you crack it, if parts of skill set are completely unreachable then repeat with a more suitable market/approach.

It sounds simple when you break it down but it's all obviously incredibly difficult. If most people don't even know which skills they're effectively trying to learn then how can they learn it? It's either impossible or would take forever to get there naturally.

Once you get somewhere with the first market and you gain confidence in the process itself, you can just repeat the process with other markets. I know it works, because this is my process in a nutshell, may not work for everyone and maybe needs to get tweaked for you but I think it's a good starting point.
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johnsheppard
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Hello, I don't yet make any money doing this. But I do know that other business ventures are also really hard :)

Sometimes when the going is rough I think, well this is too hard, the effort/reward ratio isn't there...I'm gonna run through some other business plans...the invariable conclusion is that it's ALL hard... it's just the way it is....you're in competition with people of the same ilk....

You could work for the government, that way you are competing with people of a different ilk? :)

I like Kai and Shauns advice there, its probably way better advice than mine. I have a notebook where a copy of that advice now lives :)

Edit: I might also add that, it all depends on what you want to be. I never really had any consciously chosen role models when I was young. But in retrospect I do think it's highly valuable to find one. It's much easier to visualise, do I really want to be that guy? Because being a certain way always comes with trade offs that are not always obvious....but yeah. I guess maybe this bit of advice is get a role model. Be that guy :)
Bear's The Name
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A fascinating thread. I think there is a misconception on this forum that Bet Angel is used solely for trading. I have never really used it in this way. I have tried my hand at trading but never had the time or patience for it - except for golf, where the leisurely nature of the event over four days and my in-depth knowledge of the sport has enabled me to manually trade in and out for a small degree of success.

The attraction of Bet Angel for me (and why I buy a licence every year) lies in Guardian and the automation function, enabling me to develop sophisticated betting strategies predominantly on horse racing, firing in thousands of bets a day into many markets, based on decades of experience. I don't have time to sit all day at the computer due to other (primarily family) commitments, so the aim is to set the rules running and leave it to it. I try and make myself as balanced a book as possible where I usually take a small loss if the fancied/ supported horses win, but have most of the book running for me. It is essentially bookmaking, but I do fire some back bets in too to even things up where necessary. It has the excitement of the gambling element without too much risk so I can enjoy the race and cheering on the rags. Though recent times have been tough with a lot of well backed favs romping home. No matter - the tide always turns.

How am I doing? Well, showing a decent profit over the last 12 months - that's tens of thousands of markets. Going to 2% comms on Betfair was the real game changer for me - at higher rates it's harder and I was only just breaking even before commission before the reduced rates came in.

I enjoy what I do and have a decent income from elsewhere so it's primarily fun for me - pays for the holidays etc. I just wanted to post this to show that you don't have to be a trader (though I'll probably get slated for saying it) if that's not your mentality - as long as you have discipline, manage your bank, know Guardian and your betting markets inside out, you can have a lot of fun with it. So if you prefer value betting to trading and believe you can find an edge then go for it.
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Kai
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Diacritical Quark wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:56 pm
Ok, I've come to the long drawn out conclusion that I just can't hack it as a 'trader' so to speak. A lot of this has to do with me attaching emotions to trades and my general inability to separate losing from being wrong.
I don't think this is true at all.

If I may be so blunt the exact first thing you said here is one of the biggest misconceptions around IMHO. People give trading a go and for a long time they obviously either trade without a real edge or with a very minor one, and trading like that will probably be mental torture and an emotional roller coaster etc for nearly everyone, you're walking a very thin line and every trade counts, that's simply too much pressure for a new trader and he will probably crack under it. This is all obviously a perfectly normal process and it's to be expected, and yet people sometimes already start thinking that they're just not cut out for this and may start thinking about automation or other things.

The misconception part for me actually comes after this first part and in more ways than one. Because people start thinking that this is what good trading is supposed to look like, they convince themselves that at this point you're supposed to conquer your emotions etc so that you can in other words be consistently profitable with a slight edge over the market which is nearly mission impossible by default. When they obviously can't do that then they maybe focus more on psychology than the markets and they start reading a ton of psychology books thinking that this will "solve" the emotions part and give them that elusive edge or that missing piece.

While in reality, the emotions are not the real issue here for me at all, the only real obvious problem here is that they're trying to trade without a genuine strong edge. If you had to choose, would you rather have a perfect mindset or a strong edge? If they found and developed a strong edge, then emotions are no longer an issue, a small edge can be strong as well and can be a good start btw. The mental skill set (aka emotions aka trader's mindset) will naturally develop through people using this (first) edge and for the most part those issues will be ironed out and be so minor that they won't matter.

If you hear anyone say that they've got the perfect trader's mindset, that they're in complete control over their emotions, that they are simply immune to all of the cognitive biases and so on they are either liars or delusional, no matter how big or experienced they may be they 100% suffer from all sorts of cognitive biases whether they realize it or not, but does that really matter to them? Nope, the only thing that matters is having as many strong edges as possible. If they can do something stupid with a few trades and let emotions/greed get the better of them and allow the market to properly spank them but still end the day comfortably in profit then that is a strong edge, and they don't care about emotions at all, that's the easiest and maybe the only way to "beat" emotions. There's no beating them, you will feel all sorts of emotions but they won't matter and with a strong edge they won't influence your decision-making as much, with a strong enough edge you develop the ability to reset your emotions on a market per market or day by day basis. I bet even Dalai Lama would make a rotten trader at first and would chase losses all over the place. Of course, you can make a minor edge work as well if you stay mentally consistent but I see this as the much harder and longer path that doesn't really need to be taken.

Yes, you can trade much better and much easier and much more efficient if you over time develop genuine mental skills and learn how to better deal with your emotions, but it's not a prerequisite at all to be successful, your starting mental skill set can be extremely average or even very bad, and you can still be profitable or even a very good trader despite that, I don't think people realize this at all, they think they need to be perfect mentally to trade profitably which is simply not true, hence this post.

So for me the only thing that matters is the edge itself and the market itself, ideally you want to study and observe and measure and trade your market until you know everything about YOUR market and its behavior and its patterns and quirks and how it thinks and so on, until it becomes dead obvious how you should trade it and where the opportunities are (that's the edge part). You may fear this market on the first day but one day it will be your playground. Even one tick is a not a bad start, one relatively free tick per market doesn't sound bad at all, anything positive that can get the ball rolling in the right direction.

To sum up this impromptu little essay, and forgive me if this sounds blunt, but the main reason people can't find a good edge is simply because they don't know and don't understand their market well enough (and the psychology behind it). Makes sense, no? It's very simple in a nutshell. And this probably sounds harsh but that's how the market is, they don't yet deserve the edge either, if they did deserve it through deep hard quality work then they would get rewarded already, because people may want this or that edge but for the most part they will only get what they actually deserve. A person might think and feel that they definitely deserve some success, if they've been at it for a very long time and lost countless banks and went through hell and back more than once etc, but the nature of this business is brutal and unforgiving and if they're not learning their lessons and if their experience and knowledge is not where it needs to be according to the market then the market will not care one bit and will have no mercy, because according to the market they sadly don't yet deserve anything. To put it plainly there's obviously just not enough quality in their work overall to crack the Enigma that is the flippin' market. It may feel completely impenetrable at first glance and super efficient, but that's only how the market looks from the outside and it's far from actual reality. I feel that the first step/edge is by far the hardest one to make so hopefully you don't give up and are able to make it.
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Tuco
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Persistence

"Persistence is what makes the impossible possible, the possible likely and the likely definite."

"Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent."
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Kai
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Tuco wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:08 am
Persistence

"Persistence is what makes the impossible possible, the possible likely and the likely definite."

"Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent."
+1

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Kai
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@Diacritical Quark

If you haven't given up on manual trading you can hit me up via PM if you want, maybe I can point you in the right direction or something, depending on which direction you wanted to go in and your skill set etc.
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johnsheppard
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Tuco wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 11:08 am
Persistence

"Persistence is what makes the impossible possible, the possible likely and the likely definite."

"Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent."
I really like that quote too, but I was thinking about it the other week. Quotes are easily misleading. You can keep trying but it's gotta be tempered with what you want out of life...because that's really what you should be persistent with...no harm in giving up something you've found out you don't want or the costs are higher than you expected... So not sure it's as clear cut as that quote makes things out to be... But to that end; Here's some other persistence quotes :)

"It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer" - Albert Einstein

Success is a few good habits repeated every day, Failure is a few bad decisions repeated every day. - John Rohn

"Success is almost totally dependent upon drive and persistence. The extra energy required to make another effort or try another approach is the secret of winning." - Denis Waitley

"The difference between people who believe they have books inside of them and those who actually write books is sheer cussed persistence--the ability to make yourself work at your craft, every day--the belief, even in the face of
obstacles, that you've got something worth saying." - Jennifer Weiner

"When I meet successful people I ask 100 questions as to what they attribute their success to. It is usually the same: persistence, hard work and hiring good people." - Kiana Tom

"Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm." -Winston Churchill

"Character consists of what you do on the third and fourth tries." - James A. Michener

"Look at a stone cutter hammering away at his rock, perhaps a hundred times without as much as a crack showing in it. Yet at the hundred-and-first blow it will split in two, and I know it was not the last blow that did it, but all that had gone before." - Jacob A. Riis


... I think the thing is that is natural to re-evalutate when you hit the realisation that things are harder than you thought when you first set out....... I think that's inevitable in ANY endeavour...naive minds always think things are easy...else we'd never start out...

So I think there is probably value in the no expectations thing (stated by....someone in this thread who I forgot right now, sorry) and adjusting ones mindset to a process focused one rather than an outcome focused one...
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Kai
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johnsheppard wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 2:27 am
Quotes are easily misleading. You can keep trying but it's gotta be tempered with what you want out of life...because that's really what you should be persistent with...no harm in giving up something you've found out you don't want or the costs are higher than you expected... So not sure it's as clear cut as that quote makes things out to be... But to that end; Here's some other persistence quotes :)
Sure, not much with trading is ever really clear-cut since uncertainty is literally the name of the game. Binary thinking is safe and comfortable and easy for people but trading is anything but black and white, only the P&L afterwards is, and even that can sometimes be misleading for the inexperienced.

Perception overall plays a big role I think, people don't really have to see it as success vs failure or man vs market if this is adding too much unnecessary pressure, it's all about whether a trader is able to build a skill set (that ideally pays well on the market) and that whole skill set is the edge itself.

If practically every market is tradable and the quality of opportunities and their frequency greatly differs from market to market then at the very least the ladder itself will provides opportunities because of the way it is structured. So if that's the case then logically it all comes down to building and matching the right skill set to the right market, in order to trade it profitably. At the very start doing a bit of everything will often result in nothing, so it's important to specialize in the early stage and get that first big breakthrough.

Someone might say "find an edge first, then build a skill set to execute on it" but I'd say it differently. I'd say to first truly learn your market and then build a skill set that matches its behavior, and if you're able to do that you've effectively "finally found yourself an edge" and that skill set is your edge. Then you can keep going further and use parts of the existing skill set to attack a different market and so on, it can grow exponentially if you wanted it to. Does Peter for example have some sort of a secret signal for his entries which gives him the edge over other prerace traders, or is his entire skill set his real edge?

And even if someone gives people an edge (a manual one) they still need the required skill set to actually use it, so it's practically worthless to them unless they already have a very similar skill set ready to go or at least parts of it. So why for example did I seek out and researched and networked with other similar order flow traders? Because it's easier to highlight what their edges are and because for most of their edges I already have certain skill sets in place or decent chunks of those necessary skills to make it smoother for me to try and build the missing pieces, it's just one way to work a bit smarter instead of harder, and using the work of others to potentially fuel my own. Instead of building an entire skill set from scratch from a vastly different trader which I imagine a lot of people are actually doing and they're even repeating this ineffective process each time they try a new sport/market.

Keyword for me here obviously is "skill set", a trader has to have a practiced skill somewhere if he wants to extract profit from a market on a regular basis, and this skill simply needs to be above a certain threshold which probably keeps raising each year for the past 20.
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johnsheppard
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I tend to agree with all that...I mean, well there is always a reason why something isn't working and a way to get around it...as mentioned by earlier in the thread, I thnk that mastering 1 strategy in one highly specific niche or market condition is the practical way to go...master that and only then go forward to the next one (this is sort of why I like automation...it forces one to do that)...but...

In terms of persistence and making decisions. There is NO DOUBT...that if you persist, from now until the point of your death, the odds are pretty darn good you will succeed at being a trader....Although I think I recall Diacritical Quark came from financial trading, it's probably universal that people come to trading thinking it's fairly easy ...the thought that its gonna take 5 or whatever years of hard yakka and soul searching isn't there..... So it's also inevitable that they get disappointed when they find out that's that's what it takes... it's part and parcel of learning things...

I would say make sure you're happy with the amount of investment required, accept that you were initially wrong...and also accept there is an element of unknown depending on the luck of the cosmos and your place in it....THEN carry on with fixing what needs fixing...according to Kai's instruction :)
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