Hi all,
this is my first post on the Bet Angel forums though have been lurking for a few weeks now. I was looking to see if any forum users had experience of what I was going through and what they would do in my shoes.
A year ago I started finally getting on top of my betting and created a full spreadsheet originally designed to track the success of my Wisdom of the Crowd (Joseph Buchdahl method inspired betting). I bet a few other sports as well and eventually ended up making quite a bit of profit on cricket. This week I finally finished getting limited at all the sports books and now my betting is 90% exchange. The long and short of it is this past year I made more money from gambling than my day job.
I imagine a lot of people have been in this position and gone full time but I don't think this is for me. The way I see it my edge won't last forever. I'm still young (24) and work in a job where I get paid decent money for not many hours. It's also something I can easily get qualified in something stable (accountancy etc.). I don't really want to go full time and all in on betting for a living but arguable from a financial start point its the right move. To the pro traders, when did you decide it was time?
My other issue is this: as a bettor I've put all my profit back into my bankroll. Having a job means I can live on that and as a result my betting bankroll has grown but it's not transferred to my day to day life. The side effect of this is a major part of my net worth is now essentially in gambling. I probably need to diversify and de-risk but I don't know how. I definitely shouldn't have like 80+% of my net worth as my Bankroll. How do you guys withdraw money from your bankroll? How do you grow your bankroll while withdrawing money for yourself? Do you set what you withdraw at a set amount or withdraw when you want/need something?
One of the things I think people say a lot in gambling is it's bad to think in real money. You should think in units, big blinds, buy -ins etc. and I like to think I'm pretty good at that separation. The problem is I have no idea how to bring that back to reality at the end of the day/week and month and I thought what better place to ask than a forum like this.
Going Pro: Advice Needed
"I don't really want to go full time and all in on betting for a living but arguable from a financial start point its the right move."
imo the right time is when it feels mostly comfortable to go full-time, doesn't seem wise to do it based on the numbers if you have reservations.
Plus transitioning from bookies to full-time exchange may present new hurdles / require some adjustments depending on your experience with exchanges but you would know best. e.g. as orders get larger it will affect your edge & you may also need to develop dif. entry/exit styles.
here's a potential sensible approach for you:
If you can get easily qualified in accounting why don't you set some level of qualification for yourself and work to achieve that, then have a re-think with a strong option to come back to if you decide it later. Sounds like your edge is more generic and has a fair chance of still being useful in future. In the mean time you could either either;
a) if the high % of net worth thing concerns you cut your bank roll and keep going on the side as you have, sharpen your exchange skills
b) if you're comfortable with the risk on the full account and you know your drawdown potential continue scaling on side, consider what amount it would have to reach for you to feel like quitting the accountant job would be an easy decision and work toward that — if you reach it you can leave your job early
c) pull the bankroll and throw it into other things. if you want to diversify with minimal hassle consider investing it into a global equity / index tracker ETF and forget about it until you want to use it for something else e.g. Vanguard FTSE All World UCITS ETF, this then opens you up to more time working on reaching whatever desired accountancy level you're after allowing you to get to your gambling full-time re-think in less time
perhaps others will chime in with alternatives
best of luck whatever you decide
imo the right time is when it feels mostly comfortable to go full-time, doesn't seem wise to do it based on the numbers if you have reservations.
Plus transitioning from bookies to full-time exchange may present new hurdles / require some adjustments depending on your experience with exchanges but you would know best. e.g. as orders get larger it will affect your edge & you may also need to develop dif. entry/exit styles.
here's a potential sensible approach for you:
If you can get easily qualified in accounting why don't you set some level of qualification for yourself and work to achieve that, then have a re-think with a strong option to come back to if you decide it later. Sounds like your edge is more generic and has a fair chance of still being useful in future. In the mean time you could either either;
a) if the high % of net worth thing concerns you cut your bank roll and keep going on the side as you have, sharpen your exchange skills
b) if you're comfortable with the risk on the full account and you know your drawdown potential continue scaling on side, consider what amount it would have to reach for you to feel like quitting the accountant job would be an easy decision and work toward that — if you reach it you can leave your job early
c) pull the bankroll and throw it into other things. if you want to diversify with minimal hassle consider investing it into a global equity / index tracker ETF and forget about it until you want to use it for something else e.g. Vanguard FTSE All World UCITS ETF, this then opens you up to more time working on reaching whatever desired accountancy level you're after allowing you to get to your gambling full-time re-think in less time
perhaps others will chime in with alternatives
best of luck whatever you decide
BudapestGambit wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:15 pmHi all,
this is my first post on the Bet Angel forums though have been lurking for a few weeks now. I was looking to see if any forum users had experience of what I was going through and what they would do in my shoes.
A year ago I started finally getting on top of my betting and created a full spreadsheet originally designed to track the success of my Wisdom of the Crowd (Joseph Buchdahl method inspired betting). I bet a few other sports as well and eventually ended up making quite a bit of profit on cricket. This week I finally finished getting limited at all the sports books and now my betting is 90% exchange. The long and short of it is this past year I made more money from gambling than my day job.
I imagine a lot of people have been in this position and gone full time but I don't think this is for me. The way I see it my edge won't last forever. I'm still young (24) and work in a job where I get paid decent money for not many hours. It's also something I can easily get qualified in something stable (accountancy etc.). I don't really want to go full time and all in on betting for a living but arguable from a financial start point its the right move. To the pro traders, when did you decide it was time?
My other issue is this: as a bettor I've put all my profit back into my bankroll. Having a job means I can live on that and as a result my betting bankroll has grown but it's not transferred to my day to day life. The side effect of this is a major part of my net worth is now essentially in gambling. I probably need to diversify and de-risk but I don't know how. I definitely shouldn't have like 80+% of my net worth as my Bankroll. How do you guys withdraw money from your bankroll? How do you grow your bankroll while withdrawing money for yourself? Do you set what you withdraw at a set amount or withdraw when you want/need something?
One of the things I think people say a lot in gambling is it's bad to think in real money. You should think in units, big blinds, buy -ins etc. and I like to think I'm pretty good at that separation. The problem is I have no idea how to bring that back to reality at the end of the day/week and month and I thought what better place to ask than a forum like this.
I would advise EXTREME CAUTION! Sorry to put that in caps but that's how strongly I feel. I have gone full time in two previous forms of risk which were blackjack and then poker. In both of those fields the environment changed leaving me in the first instance without a career and in the second in a much tougher environment where the earning potential was grossly limited after the FBI moved in and shut down the US market.
Trading will hopefully be my next career step but this time I don't intend to make the same mistakes although "mistakes" isn't the right way of phrasing that, I was powerless to stop the changes. This made me study other subjects deeply over the past ten years...game theory, risk engineering and financial trading being at the top of the list. My keen interest and anorak knowledge of sports meant sports trading was an obvious step but I intuitively knew that this would be difficult.
I am 20 years late to the party with sports trading and BF and when you are that late to a party, it takes something exceptional to get in. So the key is to design a method that is robust and resistant to changing dynamics. I have punted seriously too off and on but would never recommend that for a living for several reasons. The markets for most sports now have been mathematically modelled making it much tougher and when an environment is much tougher then edge is reduced and variance of results increased.
I have seen loads of people "turn pro" down the years off the back of a years results and for most, the end result was a bad one. And by "end" I don't mean 6m to a year down the line, nobody jumps ship for a year do they? Also, trading is a much more efficient way of entering into risk markets than outright betting. I am new to this forum too and came on here to ask a few questions to see if my existing ideas were right and to fill gaps or to get something answered that bugged me. However coming onto a forum to ask something is a clear warning sign that you are not ready....if you are REALLY READY...trust me you will know and you won't need a forum.
If you don't mind me saying so, your knowledge is clearly way off where it should be to consider doing anything like this. My only advice would be...you are only 24....you have had some moderate success over a short time period but keep on learning. You can't know what it is you don't know. If you rush the process then you have no chance and you are rushing it and that is as plain as day. There is no rush, I have taken two and a half years of studying on both exchanges and financial markets and years of experience before that in other types of gambling markets but that's unusual.
Doing something in any gambling field is very stressful when your entire income depends on it, the sensible way is to hedge. Make sure you have a net under you before you walk the tightrope or several for that matter but that's my insurance training coming out
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wearthefoxhat
- Posts: 3221
- Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am
SpecialisationBudapestGambit wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:15 pmHi all,
this is my first post on the Bet Angel forums though have been lurking for a few weeks now. I was looking to see if any forum users had experience of what I was going through and what they would do in my shoes.
A year ago I started finally getting on top of my betting and created a full spreadsheet originally designed to track the success of my Wisdom of the Crowd (Joseph Buchdahl method inspired betting). I bet a few other sports as well and eventually ended up making quite a bit of profit on cricket. This week I finally finished getting limited at all the sports books and now my betting is 90% exchange. The long and short of it is this past year I made more money from gambling than my day job.
I imagine a lot of people have been in this position and gone full time but I don't think this is for me. The way I see it my edge won't last forever. I'm still young (24) and work in a job where I get paid decent money for not many hours. It's also something I can easily get qualified in something stable (accountancy etc.). I don't really want to go full time and all in on betting for a living but arguable from a financial start point its the right move. To the pro traders, when did you decide it was time?
My other issue is this: as a bettor I've put all my profit back into my bankroll. Having a job means I can live on that and as a result my betting bankroll has grown but it's not transferred to my day to day life. The side effect of this is a major part of my net worth is now essentially in gambling. I probably need to diversify and de-risk but I don't know how. I definitely shouldn't have like 80+% of my net worth as my Bankroll. How do you guys withdraw money from your bankroll? How do you grow your bankroll while withdrawing money for yourself? Do you set what you withdraw at a set amount or withdraw when you want/need something?
One of the things I think people say a lot in gambling is it's bad to think in real money. You should think in units, big blinds, buy -ins etc. and I like to think I'm pretty good at that separation. The problem is I have no idea how to bring that back to reality at the end of the day/week and month and I thought what better place to ask than a forum like this.
Enjoy the process
Passion/Interest in the sport chosen
Accepting losses with good money management
Take regular breaks
Be kind to yourself
Be single minded (friends/family may not understand)
I haven't read that one, just downloaded the .pdf, (free), so will take a look.
You've mentioned cricket. Definitely got legs on volume and liquidity. If you know the players/set ups, that will give you an edge right there.
Going Pro, is largely about your mindset and how you keep yourself in the right frame of mind. Going Semi-Pro is a good start, as the bills are paid and more time for R&D and Data analysis to create the right set up and opportunity.
One idea about withdrawing money could be on the lines of;
Bank; £5,000
Bank doubled; £10,000 (withdraw £2,500) into an ISA (one you can withdraw from)
New Bank; £7,500
Bank Doubled; £15,000 (withdraw £5,000) into same ISA. Note ISA's have maximums of £20,000, you can have more than one though)
etc...etc
If your only income is trading, then cover your costs/outgoings first, pay yourself (drawings) and put a % in an ISA and continue.
You get the gist.
Becoming a full time pro from Semi-pro would be easier once you have a routine, know your market and can define your edge. If it goes smoothly, then the transition would/could be easier than starting cold and taking too many risks. No-one is going to tell you when the time is right, you will know, based on your results and level of confidence. A good back-up is keeping your old work networks warm, just in case you change your mind.
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yeah the UIGEA was a key issue too although p2p transfers were in common usage on Stars but obviously these avenues are not open to enough people
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jamesedwards
- Posts: 2316
- Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:16 pm
I don't want to put you off at all but to help here are some considerations you may or may not already have thought of:
- What happens if you hit a bad run and you blow your bank or permanently lose your edge? If you have a regular 'day job' income you can always replenish but what plan do you have if not? Especially pertinent if you are relying on a bank that is a significant % of your balance.
- Not so much of a problem at your age but if you step away from a career and try to get back in in the future you will find things have moved on and potentially left you behind, plus employers may look unkindly at a significant career gap on your CV.
- There is still a stigma of being a "gambler" as many people "know" that gambling is a mugs game. Are you comfortable with your family/friends views on this when you tell them what you do for a living?
- Many financial institutions will avoid you like the plague if you ask them for credit. Telling them you have an income of X from "trading on Betfair" will send many running. Be prepared to finance your own big purchases as it will be much harder to get mortgage/credit etc.
- Although with current rules you will not be subject to any income tax the taxman will probably turn up at some point wanting to know want to know how you are living with no taxable income. Without employment you will not generate any National Insurance contributions although if you do Self Assessment tax returns you can contribute a negligible £170-ish per year to cover the stamp yourself.
- You will not be building up any pension so you should factor in some regular long-term investment for your old-age as early on as possible.
- Don't forget to factor in Betfair Premium Charge once your account is reasonably profitable. Standard PC is a hefty [20% of weekly profit - commission generated], and rises to 40%/50% or 60% once you hit a £250k threshold. £250k sounds like a lot but isn't that much if you intend trading to be your main source of income for years to come.
Last edited by jamesedwards on Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
In many ways, it's probably not a bad time for some to try their luck, as the job market looks totally buggered right now
However, you'll need savings/decent bank. Making enough to pay your bills is hard work, but it becomes almost impossible if your bank dwindles along the way
One word of advice I'd give though is getting life's balance right (maybe doesn't apply with pubs shutting and social distancing!!).......when I went self-employed I couldn't stop trading. I loved it and was earning cracking money......there's always something to trade on, and it was made worse by the fact I was single and living on my own
I quickly became a recluse. The social contacts I had eventually stopped inviting me out.
I didn't care though......there were times when I didn't leave my flat for 4/5 days at a time!
However, you'll need savings/decent bank. Making enough to pay your bills is hard work, but it becomes almost impossible if your bank dwindles along the way
One word of advice I'd give though is getting life's balance right (maybe doesn't apply with pubs shutting and social distancing!!).......when I went self-employed I couldn't stop trading. I loved it and was earning cracking money......there's always something to trade on, and it was made worse by the fact I was single and living on my own
I quickly became a recluse. The social contacts I had eventually stopped inviting me out.
I didn't care though......there were times when I didn't leave my flat for 4/5 days at a time!