Any thoughts why?

[firlandsfarm]

Hi all, while researching some racing in-running data just now I created the following graph ...

InRunningReturns.png

It represents the return on an in-running strategy I'm looking at (01/01/2008 - to date). The sudden upsurge in the line occurs on or around 01/06/2018 ... out of curiosity I just wondered of anyone can think of anything that happened around that time that might have affected in running prices. The strategy is just a simple one monitoring price changes/returns.

[sionascaig]

When you were coming up with your strategy did you focus on the later period - maybe some bias in there if you did?

Hard to see but the earlier period also has some flatish sections - is there some seasonailty going on?

[firlandsfarm]

Hi sionascaig. Thanks for taking an interest. The answers to your questions are No and No but maybe!

It was the first run of my thoughts ... the criteria is the same throughout and there has been no back fitting ... it is simple 'apply these general parameters to all' so no bias.

Seasonality, well yes maybe because it was against all runners in all race types so maybe 'natural' seasonality but if so I would expect it to apply pre and post June 2018.

There may be nothing in it but the line certainly makes a steeper move.

[goat68]

Hi all, while researching some racing in-running data just now I created the following graph ...

InRunningReturns.png

It represents the return on an in-running strategy I'm looking at (01/01/2008 - to date). The sudden upsurge in the line occurs on or around 01/06/2018 ... out of curiosity I just wondered of anyone can think of anything that happened around that time that might have affected in running prices. The strategy is just a simple one monitoring price changes/returns.

Interesting I remember seeing that exact same looking graph in one of Peter's videos!

[jimibt]

Hi all, while researching some racing in-running data just now I created the following graph ...

InRunningReturns.png

It represents the return on an in-running strategy I'm looking at (01/01/2008 - to date). The sudden upsurge in the line occurs on or around 01/06/2018 ... out of curiosity I just wondered of anyone can think of anything that happened around that time that might have affected in running prices. The strategy is just a simple one monitoring price changes/returns.

Interesting I remember seeing that exact same looking graph in one of Peter's videos!

that was probably his webcam accidently focussing on his excel bank balance

[firlandsfarm]

Interesting I remember seeing that exact same looking graph in one of Peter's videos!

If you did it's certainly not intentional and from the content of Peter's posts and video comments I doubt it's something that would match his thoughts. Basically I was looking for a possible relationship between BSP and in-running prices and as I said it was a first run with no back-fitting. As I said in the OP there may be nothing in it, maybe just statistical variance but if so then it's consistent variance!

[sionascaig]

It certainly worth looking into although not sure what more you can do - maybe check inplay volumes, has there been a significant increase at this time - maybe give another clue...

Or breakdown by tracks or racetypes to see if it been driven by any specific groupings.

Nice shape though )

[Bubace]

Hi all, while researching some racing in-running data just now I created the following graph ...

InRunningReturns.png

It represents the return on an in-running strategy I'm looking at (01/01/2008 - to date). The sudden upsurge in the line occurs on or around 01/06/2018 ... out of curiosity I just wondered of anyone can think of anything that happened around that time that might have affected in running prices. The strategy is just a simple one monitoring price changes/returns.

hi

ive been playing about with a couple of inplay stratagies, ive been recording all the results everynight for the last 3 weeks, im pretty new to all this so sorry if this is a daft question,

how do you backdate the stratagies to historic races?

[sionascaig]

IPTRADEDVOL.png

In play traded volume going back to 2015 by quarter.... Looks like a change in pattern from Q1 2018 (previous yrs show a step increase by quarter which breaks down in 2018 and in general vols lower)

[firlandsfarm]

IPTRADEDVOL.png

In play traded volume going back to 2015 by quarter.... Looks like a change in pattern from Q1 2018 (previous yrs show a step increase by quarter which breaks down in 2018 and in general vols lower)

Thanks for that sionascaig, that looks like the IP volume reduced from mid 2017. I wonder why?

[Morbius]

Hi all, while researching some racing in-running data just now I created the following graph ...

InRunningReturns.png

It represents the return on an in-running strategy I'm looking at (01/01/2008 - to date). The sudden upsurge in the line occurs on or around 01/06/2018 ... out of curiosity I just wondered of anyone can think of anything that happened around that time that might have affected in running prices. The strategy is just a simple one monitoring price changes/returns.

I almost missed this thread but that is a very interesting graph to say the least. I am assuming that your data is 10 full years!! If so I can categorically say right here and now that there is no way that this is down to statistical variance, the sample size is too large and the graph too linear. It's difficult for me to go into the reasons why it isn't in this post but take my word for it....it isn't. However what the reason could be is beyond me.

It also intrigues me anyway for other reasons as I have never bought into the mantra that trades cannot be taken in running and I always believed that they could. I know what you are saying is different but that's just me adding a bit extra

The increased volatility of in running trading creates all types of potential winning strategies, anything that is volatile is by sheer definition far more profitable (potentially). As for your strategy being "simple"....well to that let me add this. System design and game theoretical solutions is a passion of mine and in all my years in this area, I haven't encountered many robust long term successful systems that were complex. When layers of complexity are added then chaotic events magnify any flaw(s) in the system that couldn't be predicted at the outset because of unknowable complexity and unknown variables.

LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) are a very famous example in the financial world of complexity gone bad (When Genius Failed is a Great Read). There is a strange cyclical journey with system design. Novices and simple thinking people create simple systems because its all they can do. Then the "smarter" of us start using our "intellect" and add complexity in the belief its better. Then the ones that stay the course and reach "enlightenment" come to realise that we need to go back to simple again....not because we are simple thinkers but this time because we know it works best. Its a strange paradox but novices and advanced thinkers often come to the same conclusions....the difference is that the advanced thinker is aware of their systems strength while the novice will probably migrate onto something else.

I know I am digressing but I find this fascinating. So never be afraid of having a simple system (not saying you are) and I would fancy a person's chances with a simple system any day over a complex one. "Everything must be made as simple as possible but not more so" - Einstein

Albert Einstein was a big believer in simple structures and simple systems and doing away with complexity and I read somewhere that he may have been pretty smart

[firlandsfarm]

Hi all, while researching some racing in-running data just now I created the following graph ...

InRunningReturns.png

It represents the return on an in-running strategy I'm looking at (01/01/2008 - to date). The sudden upsurge in the line occurs on or around 01/06/2018 ... out of curiosity I just wondered of anyone can think of anything that happened around that time that might have affected in running prices. The strategy is just a simple one monitoring price changes/returns.

I almost missed this thread but that is a very interesting graph to say the least. I am assuming that your data is 10 full years!! If so I can categorically say right here and now that there is no way that this is down to statistical variance, the sample size is too large and the graph too linear. It's difficult for me to go into the reasons why it isn't in this post but take my word for it....it isn't. However what the reason could be is beyond me.

It also intrigues me anyway for other reasons as I have never bought into the mantra that trades cannot be taken in running and I always believed that they could. I know what you are saying is different but that's just me adding a bit extra

The increased volatility of in running trading creates all types of potential winning strategies, anything that is volatile is by sheer definition far more profitable (potentially). As for your strategy being "simple"....well to that let me add this. System design and game theoretical solutions is a passion of mine and in all my years in this area, I haven't encountered many robust long term successful systems that were complex. When layers of complexity are added then chaotic events magnify any flaw(s) in the system that couldn't be predicted at the outset because of unknowable complexity and unknown variables.

LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) are a very famous example in the financial world of complexity gone bad (When Genius Failed is a Great Read). There is a strange cyclical journey with system design. Novices and simple thinking people create simple systems because its all they can do. Then the "smarter" of us start using our "intellect" and add complexity in the belief its better. Then the ones that stay the course and reach "enlightenment" come to realise that we need to go back to simple again....not because we are simple thinkers but this time because we know it works best. Its a strange paradox but novices and advanced thinkers often come to the same conclusions....the difference is that the advanced thinker is aware of their systems strength while the novice will probably migrate onto something else.

I know I am digressing but I find this fascinating. So never be afraid of having a simple system (not saying you are) and I would fancy a person's chances with a simple system any day over a complex one. "Everything must be made as simple as possible but not more so" - Einstein

Albert Einstein was a big believer in simple structures and simple systems and doing away with complexity and I read somewhere that he may have been pretty smart

Hi and thanks for your comments. I can say in confirmation ... Yes it's 12 years data (all runners in all GB and IRE races 2008 - 2020) and yes it's very simple ... I was looking to see if there is a 'winning' correlation between in-running prices and BSP with no filter other than the tested relationship which was applied consistently to all the data.. As you say in-running prices are extremely volatile so it's very difficult to see if they form a good market (100%) or if there is any general bias (at any point) towards backing or laying.

[Morbius]

Hi all, while researching some racing in-running data just now I created the following graph ...

InRunningReturns.png

It represents the return on an in-running strategy I'm looking at (01/01/2008 - to date). The sudden upsurge in the line occurs on or around 01/06/2018 ... out of curiosity I just wondered of anyone can think of anything that happened around that time that might have affected in running prices. The strategy is just a simple one monitoring price changes/returns.

I almost missed this thread but that is a very interesting graph to say the least. I am assuming that your data is 10 full years!! If so I can categorically say right here and now that there is no way that this is down to statistical variance, the sample size is too large and the graph too linear. It's difficult for me to go into the reasons why it isn't in this post but take my word for it....it isn't. However what the reason could be is beyond me.

It also intrigues me anyway for other reasons as I have never bought into the mantra that trades cannot be taken in running and I always believed that they could. I know what you are saying is different but that's just me adding a bit extra

The increased volatility of in running trading creates all types of potential winning strategies, anything that is volatile is by sheer definition far more profitable (potentially). As for your strategy being "simple"....well to that let me add this. System design and game theoretical solutions is a passion of mine and in all my years in this area, I haven't encountered many robust long term successful systems that were complex. When layers of complexity are added then chaotic events magnify any flaw(s) in the system that couldn't be predicted at the outset because of unknowable complexity and unknown variables.

LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) are a very famous example in the financial world of complexity gone bad (When Genius Failed is a Great Read). There is a strange cyclical journey with system design. Novices and simple thinking people create simple systems because its all they can do. Then the "smarter" of us start using our "intellect" and add complexity in the belief its better. Then the ones that stay the course and reach "enlightenment" come to realise that we need to go back to simple again....not because we are simple thinkers but this time because we know it works best. Its a strange paradox but novices and advanced thinkers often come to the same conclusions....the difference is that the advanced thinker is aware of their systems strength while the novice will probably migrate onto something else.

I know I am digressing but I find this fascinating. So never be afraid of having a simple system (not saying you are) and I would fancy a person's chances with a simple system any day over a complex one. "Everything must be made as simple as possible but not more so" - Einstein

Albert Einstein was a big believer in simple structures and simple systems and doing away with complexity and I read somewhere that he may have been pretty smart

Hi and thanks for your comments. I can say in confirmation ... Yes it's 12 years data (all runners in all GB and IRE races 2008 - 2020) and yes it's very simple ... I was looking to see if there is a 'winning' correlation between in-running prices and BSP with no filter other than the tested relationship which was applied consistently to all the data.. As you say in-running prices are extremely volatile so it's very difficult to see if they form a good market (100%) or if there is any general bias (at any point) towards backing or laying.

This "difficulty" as you say is where the problem lies. Any alpha (active return) will more than likely be hidden hence why so few people succeed taking trades in running because the results are volatile and deeply stochastic. However the more deeply an edge is hidden then the more difficult it is to be replicated thus making the system and edge more robust. There are logistical problems with taking trades in running...wider spreads, lower liquidity, trades not getting matched etc but these are all issues that can be resolved with deeper knowledge. As long as you are aware that you are searching for a highly concealed edge here and not one that is obvious then you are probably going down a good path

[firlandsfarm]

This "difficulty" as you say is where the problem lies. Any alpha (active return) will more than likely be hidden hence why so few people succeed taking trades in running because the results are volatile and deeply stochastic. However the more deeply an edge is hidden then the more difficult it is to be replicated thus making the system and edge more robust. There are logistical problems with taking trades in running...wider spreads, lower liquidity, trades not getting matched etc but these are all issues that can be resolved with deeper knowledge. As long as you are aware that you are searching for a highly concealed edge here and not one that is obvious then you are probably going down a good path

I have lots of experience of not being matched in-running! That's why I have been looking for a tactic where I can set it up early in the race (maybe pre-off and Kept) so it's sitting there waiting for the conditions to be 'right' and at the front of the queue.

[Morbius]

This "difficulty" as you say is where the problem lies. Any alpha (active return) will more than likely be hidden hence why so few people succeed taking trades in running because the results are volatile and deeply stochastic. However the more deeply an edge is hidden then the more difficult it is to be replicated thus making the system and edge more robust. There are logistical problems with taking trades in running...wider spreads, lower liquidity, trades not getting matched etc but these are all issues that can be resolved with deeper knowledge. As long as you are aware that you are searching for a highly concealed edge here and not one that is obvious then you are probably going down a good path

I have lots of experience of not being matched in-running! That's why I have been looking for a tactic where I can set it up early in the race (maybe pre-off and Kept) so it's sitting there waiting for the conditions to be 'right' and at the front of the queue.

Well keep that nose to the grindstone because hard work always pays off.....it's a bit like pursuing a woman....if it's too accessible then it means everybody has been there before you so it's not worth having