General discussion : Trading for Newbies - Part 1 Starting out.

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Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:57 am


Sorry for the slow reply, I suffered toxic shock syndrome over the weekend and I only get the odd window to get online!

This isn't a daft question and it actually reinforces what I said about misinterpretation of WOM.

The money queuing is often hard to interpret so I tend to take a simple view of it. Most of the money is pointless and is often there to create the illusion of pressure in either relevant direction. Some of the money is genuine and is often value seekers or traders looking to offer money or ask for a price. So I tend t focus on the front of the queue and which side is dominant as this will often indicate direction. Now I know some will say you do not need to know direction but trust me it helps!

Once the move starts it is then purely a WOM mechanism. If the money keeps coming the move will continue, if the money slows down or money opposes it then it may halt the move either temporarily or permanently. Some moves start in a genuine manner and are then pushed on by reactive money. For example, a horse starts to attract support and the price drops. As people react to this move they will try to catch the money. Some will miss so their money will line up behind the main price thus adding to the illusion of pressure. Others will jump in right at the front or even in front as they try to catch the move.

In a genuine gamble on a horse you will often see a different pattern emerging. It will start as described above but then as people realise the move is genuine they decide they cannot queue or they will miss the move. You will then notice very little queuing and the % figures will often show 80% on the lay side. This often catches out many inexperienced traders as they see plenty of money on the lay side but very little on the back side. They often hesitate and wait for a true sign this is a genuine move. Usually it moves x ticks and having received the confirmation they required they join the market to find it's too late. Please remember this is an approximation of a move and whilst tick amounts can vary the outcome is pretty much the same. The money on the lay side is a mixture of players looking to get a value lay, those who are willing to chance they are close to the bottom of the range (they'll jump ship if they're wrong) and people laying off having backed at a higher price.

Think about a bucket with a rectangular baffled hole in it. The water flowing into the bucket is the backers' money. The layers are responsible for maintaining the water level i.e. the price level. The layers do this by closing up the hole as best they can and the money flows out from the top of the hole first If the money keeps coming they cannot fill the hole quickly enough so as the water flows out the level drops. If the money flowing in slows down it allows the layers more time to patch up the hole and halt the dropping level.

Now think about the hole in relation to the market. If you fill the bottom of the hole, i.e. layers' money queued at lower price, it will not stop the water flowing out of the hole although it will slow it. The only way to stop the flow is the fill the hole form the top first. If the first filler fails then it drops to the next level (tick) if that goes it drops again. The layers cannot fill the hole if the money comes too fast but they keep trying. The brave (maybe stupid) will try and fill the top, the more cautious (maybe clever) will queue lower down and hope the brave jump in front. If the brave are swept aside then many of the cautious will abandon their position and the hole enlarges meaning the level drops.

If the backers' money slows down it allows the layers more time to patch the hole and as they close it up the level rises.

This is why the spread expressed as a percentage is next to useless, you should concentrate on the money at the front. Adding patches (money) lower down will not stop the price dropping as it isn't closing the hole.

If you think about the money flowing this way it helps you to recognise real trends.

Posts: 6770
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Thu Jul 10, 2014 12:19 am

Thanks JG - very interesting.

I hope you're feeling better.


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Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:17 pm

Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:23 pm

Intresting post just getting started in the world of trading, quick question do you think its possible to make a full time living off trading the betfair market if you have like you said a passion for it and find it fun to do?

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