General discussion : Trading for Newbies - Part 1 Starting out.

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JollyGreen
Posts: 2011
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Wed Jul 09, 2014 8:57 am

Jeff

Sorry for the slow reply, I suffered toxic shock syndrome over the weekend and I only get the odd window to get online!

This isn't a daft question and it actually reinforces what I said about misinterpretation of WOM.

The money queuing is often hard to interpret so I tend to take a simple view of it. Most of the money is pointless and is often there to create the illusion of pressure in either relevant direction. Some of the money is genuine and is often value seekers or traders looking to offer money or ask for a price. So I tend t focus on the front of the queue and which side is dominant as this will often indicate direction. Now I know some will say you do not need to know direction but trust me it helps!

Once the move starts it is then purely a WOM mechanism. If the money keeps coming the move will continue, if the money slows down or money opposes it then it may halt the move either temporarily or permanently. Some moves start in a genuine manner and are then pushed on by reactive money. For example, a horse starts to attract support and the price drops. As people react to this move they will try to catch the money. Some will miss so their money will line up behind the main price thus adding to the illusion of pressure. Others will jump in right at the front or even in front as they try to catch the move.

In a genuine gamble on a horse you will often see a different pattern emerging. It will start as described above but then as people realise the move is genuine they decide they cannot queue or they will miss the move. You will then notice very little queuing and the % figures will often show 80% on the lay side. This often catches out many inexperienced traders as they see plenty of money on the lay side but very little on the back side. They often hesitate and wait for a true sign this is a genuine move. Usually it moves x ticks and having received the confirmation they required they join the market to find it's too late. Please remember this is an approximation of a move and whilst tick amounts can vary the outcome is pretty much the same. The money on the lay side is a mixture of players looking to get a value lay, those who are willing to chance they are close to the bottom of the range (they'll jump ship if they're wrong) and people laying off having backed at a higher price.

Think about a bucket with a rectangular baffled hole in it. The water flowing into the bucket is the backers' money. The layers are responsible for maintaining the water level i.e. the price level. The layers do this by closing up the hole as best they can and the money flows out from the top of the hole first If the money keeps coming they cannot fill the hole quickly enough so as the water flows out the level drops. If the money flowing in slows down it allows the layers more time to patch up the hole and halt the dropping level.

Now think about the hole in relation to the market. If you fill the bottom of the hole, i.e. layers' money queued at lower price, it will not stop the water flowing out of the hole although it will slow it. The only way to stop the flow is the fill the hole form the top first. If the first filler fails then it drops to the next level (tick) if that goes it drops again. The layers cannot fill the hole if the money comes too fast but they keep trying. The brave (maybe stupid) will try and fill the top, the more cautious (maybe clever) will queue lower down and hope the brave jump in front. If the brave are swept aside then many of the cautious will abandon their position and the hole enlarges meaning the level drops.

If the backers' money slows down it allows the layers more time to patch the hole and as they close it up the level rises.

This is why the spread expressed as a percentage is next to useless, you should concentrate on the money at the front. Adding patches (money) lower down will not stop the price dropping as it isn't closing the hole.

If you think about the money flowing this way it helps you to recognise real trends.

Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Thu Jul 10, 2014 12:19 am

Thanks JG - very interesting.

I hope you're feeling better.

Jeff

walker1222
Posts: 3
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:17 pm

Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:23 pm

Intresting post just getting started in the world of trading, quick question do you think its possible to make a full time living off trading the betfair market if you have like you said a passion for it and find it fun to do?

coolrider502000
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:54 pm

Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:21 pm

I'm not sure I'm posting on the correct board. I've been trading for a while, on and off. I have made quite a lot of money, doubling my initial bank four times, doubling the stake size each time. At the end of it, the whole lot ends up breaking even - no more or less. That is why I've given up. In my book trading is worthwhile if you can achieve an assured income over time - if you can't it's a waste of your time. The staking plan I was using yielded a profit on the trades as it obviously must, but I simply could not get all of them matched. The residual loss on the unmatched lays is almost exactly equal to the matched profit. The data sample was 2000 - 3000 bets and the net returns had stabilised to a variation of under 1%.

I leased Bet Angel for a 3 month trial - it's a very impressive piece of software, but I found it didn't help with the staking plan I was using.

My real question is this: Would going on one of the courses at the Betangel Academy help me to crack the problem, or would it be a waste of money?

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Dallas
Posts: 8725
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:01 pm

coolrider502000 wrote:
Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:21 pm
I'm not sure I'm posting on the correct board. I've been trading for a while, on and off. I have made quite a lot of money, doubling my initial bank four times, doubling the stake size each time. At the end of it, the whole lot ends up breaking even - no more or less. That is why I've given up. In my book trading is worthwhile if you can achieve an assured income over time - if you can't it's a waste of your time. The staking plan I was using yielded a profit on the trades as it obviously must, but I simply could not get all of them matched. The residual loss on the unmatched lays is almost exactly equal to the matched profit. The data sample was 2000 - 3000 bets and the net returns had stabilised to a variation of under 1%.

I leased Bet Angel for a 3 month trial - it's a very impressive piece of software, but I found it didn't help with the staking plan I was using.

My real question is this: Would going on one of the courses at the Betangel Academy help me to crack the problem, or would it be a waste of money?
A trading course will teach you how to read/understand what your seeing in a market, what to look for, what drives price movements, why things tend to happen etc

It sounds like your staking plan is the main problem and you got to the stage where the market couldn't handle the size stakes you were trying to use, every sport and every market has its limit for both manual and automated trading including horse racing (assuming that's what you were trading mostly).

A regular weekday market cant take anywhere near of the size stakes you could put through and get matched at say a festival like Cheltenham or Royal Ascot etc so you have to ensure the stake you use is proportionate to whats available in the market - with stakes to big for the market you will get every bet that goes against you fully matched but rarely every one that goes in your favour, and getting out of a trade going against you is impossible without taking really bad prices and additional losses.

Try ditching your staking plan and look more at what the market can absorb, a good rule of thumb is never enter with a stake unless the 3 prices in the opposite direction have enough money waiting to fully get out if needed.

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 3416
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Tue Aug 07, 2018 3:18 pm

I always wonder what's going on when I hear 'staking plan'. I'd have a good long look at what you're doing to make sure it's not just gambling especially if it involves raising or lowering your stake based on previous results. Stake size is something you assess for that ONE individual trade and revolves around risk/reward, and of course everything Dallas said.

..But assuming you mean 'scaling up', your mention of a dataset of 2-3000 trades and a 1% variation sounds perfectly sensible, but you have to rememeber that excel is a cold sterile world where everything works perfectly. It needs to factor in the problems you've found in execution, ie the unmatched positions. I could give you a dozen strategies that work great in execl, but can they actually be executed, nope.

..How long have you been trading?

coolrider502000
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 12:54 pm

Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:41 pm

Thanks for the replies. To clarify, I began a long time ago doing bookies bonuses, free bets and reload bonuses etc. Later I shop arbed (and did very well for a while) but the bookies soon got to know me and stopped taking any more of my money.

As far as my staking plan is concerned, it certainly isn't gambling or punting in any shape or form. All the bets (lays on horses) are the same size. The ratio between the bank and the bet starts at 50-1 and I started with a £3 lay backed by £100 bank (not quite 50/1 but the matching back has to be at least £2 as you know). There were a lot of ups and downs, but I decided to trade until I doubled my bank or lost the £100. I doubled it after about 6 -8 weeks approx and raised the lay to £5. I did this until I had accumulated a bank of £ 1600, with no additional funds being deposited. In total, 92 - 93% of my bets pay a profit. All the losses are on the 7 - 8% of lays that are unmatched and the horse goes on to win. Of the unmatched lays, 80% lose the race and make a profit of 95% of the lay stake. The average payout odds on the winning horses are just a little too high or just a few more win. If 82% of my unmatched lays lost the race, I'd be rich! It's as close as that, but I just can't see how to close that gap and that is why I wonder if Bet Angel can help.

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Dallas
Posts: 8725
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm

Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:53 pm

Just to clarify you said your not 'Punting /gambling' and all your bets are lays - but the rest of your post sounds like your not greening up (either for a profit or loss) and that it's just straight laying your doing which is hitting a 92%-93% SR

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 3416
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Tue Aug 07, 2018 10:35 pm

walker1222 wrote:
Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:23 pm
Intresting post just getting started in the world of trading, quick question do you think its possible to make a full time living off trading the betfair market if you have like you said a passion for it and find it fun to do?
Yes it's possible to make a hell of a lot more than a living from sports trading. Buying and selling (bets in this case) is the oldest profession in the world so I don't think there's any dispute about it anymore. Buy low sell high has worked for 5000 years.

There's also no dispute that it isn't easy, with passion, hard work and the desire to learn, you could be breaking even in about a year.

james4bond
Posts: 1
Joined: Sun Sep 02, 2018 10:26 am

Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:23 pm

Hi everyone

I have been using Bet angel for a week and I absolutely love it. I have gone some more advances bets but I just dd the following from the Make Market and broke even. Is this a normal thing? I also did another trade earlier today with a reasnable difference between the back and lay price using Offset Bet with Greening but I only broke even (I know its good to break even sometimes :-) Please can someone tell me why?

Thank you!! James

15-Sep-18
17:10:28 17:05 Chester
Al Destoor - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:137485335754 | Placed: 15-Sep-18 17:05:22 Back 5.10 10.00 --
-10.00
Lost
15-Sep-18
17:10:28 17:05 Chester
Al Destoor - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:137485335769 | Placed: 15-Sep-18 17:05:22 Lay 5.00 10.00 40.00
10.00
Won


15-Sep-18
14:27:33 14:20 Listowel
Eglantine Du Seuil - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:137440037865 | Placed: 15-Sep-18 14:18:35 Back 3.80 20.00 --
-20.00
Lost
15-Sep-18
14:27:33 14:20 Listowel
Eglantine Du Seuil - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:137440856889 | Placed: 15-Sep-18 14:22:18 Lay 2.70 20.00 34.00
20.00
Won

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