Betfair trading for beginners - Part 2 Mindset

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JollyGreen
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steven1976 wrote:JG,
Can you not just seriously offer one tip per week and we all follow?

I want to be your sheep. :D

:lol:
Do you mean a horse to oppose or to trade a move on?
steven1976
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A pre race lay on a horse where you think the price is to low, like you occasionally post up. I always seem to either be away or see your posts too late. I realize you don't have a magic wand but be interesting to see if when jolly talks the markets move. The Nick Leeson of bf! :D I rarely play for a swing trade but I'd be willing to stay in a trade a little longer if I had the slightest idea of a donkey!
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JollyGreen
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I will try and do that if possible. I do look at the markets each day but circumstances often dictate I don't have the time to study them fully and then write a post. I am just looking at a race for today but it won't be for a drift.
Zenyatta
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JollyGreen wrote: Once your position is open you assess constantly and if it goes your way you take as much profit as possible. If it goes wrong then you close out and regroup. Simples!!
If only it were indeed 'simples!!' Jolly, but as me and no doubt hundreds of others have discovered after trying and losing for months on end, it's anything but 'simples!!' ;)

After 3 years of trying, I find that about the only races I can win on trading are big feature races. All the rest are just too hard. It seems I simply don't have the skill to assess when a position has 'gone wrong', and after 3 years of trying and failing, I'm unlikely to ever be able to acquire these skills.

All the low grade races exhibit big price spikes and 'whip-saw' effects, where the price gets pushed in and out by a big number of ticks. As an example, on the last race I traded (which was way back in Dec, '12!), I placed a back bet on something and the price spiked out by an amazing 24 ticks! (Yes, the price literally doubled!). At this point I was simply ignoring this nonsense, and sure enough, soon the price crashed all the way back down by a huge number of ticks. I gave up trading in disgust at that point, because I had lost thousands stopping-out on these price spikes. In Dec, '12 this was happening nearly every day!

Forgive me for saying so, but it certainly looks to me that traders are deliberately batting the price back and forth to generate artificial volatility - in my view, these constant 'whip-saws' and 'price spikes' would make it near impossible for most people to judge whether a position has really 'gone wrong' or not, except for a very few races where everyone can clearly see what's happening (i.e., big feature races).
Iron
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Zenyatta wrote: If only it were indeed 'simples!!' Jolly, but as me and no doubt hundreds of others have discovered after trying and losing for months on end, it's anything but 'simples!!' ;)
Maybe that's because you're over-complicating it. :)

The logic of 'I found it hard, therefore it is hard' doesn't really stack up...

Jeff
Iron
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Zenyatta

A further thought - did your strategy cause you to lose money, or your lizard brain (http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog ... brain.html)?

Jeff
Zenyatta
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It's the stop-losses that cost me all the money Jeff, if I'd just let all my bets run, I'd be hugely in profit.

It's amazing how perceptions differ. Peter says that trading should be easy and finding value should be hard, but personally, I find just the opposite. I can find value ridiculously easily and win huge amounts punting, but find trading impossible *shrugs*

If you're still losing at this stage Jeff, you may want to consider enlisting the help of automation, or human+automation. It's much better than human alone ;)

I shall hopefully be making my come-back to BetAngel soon, but next time it will be automation only, and I will just be looking for value in the races I know I can win on. No more stop-loss bullshit. And no more trading on stupid low-grade stuff. You may want to consider the same strategy Jeff.
Iron
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Zenyatta wrote:It's the stop-losses that cost me all the money Jeff, if I'd just let all my bets run, I'd be hugely in profit.
That may be the case with the way you find your selections - I don't know - but, for most people, leaving a trade open as you go further and further into the red is a bad strategy.

If your approach works because you're confident from form analysis that you're entering the market at a value price, then have you considered simply betting or laying outright, rather than trading?

That said, I'm sceptical that anyone can beat the market long-term when it comes to finding value (with the possible exception of a few rare gurus like JollyGreen). You may also fall into that category - I don't know...
Zenyatta wrote:If you're still losing at this stage Jeff, you may want to consider enlisting the help of automation, or human+automation. It's much better than human alone ;)
I'm a big fan of automated trading, and once I am confident that I have a method with a long-term edge and I know exactly what I'm doing, it's something I may consider.
Zenyatta wrote:No more stop-loss bullshit. And no more trading on stupid low-grade stuff.
Many people do very well with cutting their losses (whether with an automated stoploss or some other approach) and with trading on low-grade races, although you need to go with whatever works for you...

Jeff
Zenyatta
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Ferru123 wrote:
If your approach works because you're confident from form analysis that you're entering the market at a value price, then have you considered simply betting or laying outright, rather than trading?
The statistical fluctuations are too frustrating in straight punting...the back bets don't come in often enough (you get long losing runs), and you can't put enough on to get decent returns.


That said, I'm sceptical that anyone can beat the market long-term when it comes to finding value (with the possible exception of a few rare gurus like JollyGreen). You may also fall into that category - I don't know...
I'm confident I could hold my own in tipping contest with Jolly ;)

You're mostly wasting your time trying to predict anything on the low-grade stuff, I agree there (you may as well lay all day there). But some types of races, you can definitely use form to find value: big feature races, or some races where only 1- or 2- horses dominant the book (swing-trade type races).

Many people do very well with cutting their losses (whether with an automated stoploss or some other approach) and with trading on low-grade races, although you need to go with whatever works for you...

Jeff
Nope, I believe you could count on one hand the number of people successful at this type of trading. Price-movement based trading is in general far more complex and difficult than finding value (for me any way).
Iron
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Zenyatta wrote:you can't put enough on to get decent returns.
Unless you are after Mad Bomber type bet sizes, I would have thought there wouldn't be a problem with getting a large enough bet on.

What stake sizes do you use?
Zenyatta wrote:I'm confident I could hold my own in tipping contest with Jolly ;)
Fighting talk! ;)
Zenyatta wrote: Nope, I believe you could count on one hand the number of people successful at this type of trading.
In that case, I must know them all (which I consider highly unlikely)... :)

It doesn't take a huge leap of imagination to see how such an approach could lead to one profiting from the many massive moves that occur every day.

Jeff
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JollyGreen
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I think we've wandered off track here. I am not getting into an argument about how many successful traders there are or how the markets are impossible etc. What I will say is I agree with Jeff on this one.

Zenyatta you mentioned the price which doubled - did it just go straight out or did it retrace and then continue to drift in repeat doses?

Getting large enough stakes on is easy especially if they're at the head of the market. I have friends who are owners, pro punters, semi-pro punters and they have no problem getting money on. Admittedly horses price in double figures offer less volume but if the interest is shown then a layer will often step forward.
Iron
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JollyGreen wrote:What I will say is I agree with Jeff on this one.
:o :shock:

There has to be a first time for everything! :lol:

Jeff
Zenyatta
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JollyGreen wrote:
Zenyatta you mentioned the price which doubled - did it just go straight out or did it retrace and then continue to drift in repeat doses?
Trouble was, it was so long ago, I no longer have the charts or records, it was last year, but looking at Timeform results, I think the race in question was Kempton Park, 18.00, R5, on the 28th Nov, 2012, and the big price spike was on 'Harris Tweed', which started at a BSP of 3.50 (but I'm not totally sure that that was the race in question, nor do I remember the exact size of the spike)

The reason this one was so frustrating was that it was a listed race , where you simply wouldn't have expected this sort of thing to happen. I placed the back bet, there was a huge spike, and then the price retraced completely and in fact ended up lower than the price I took. Worse spike I've ever seen. And in fact I remember similar horrendous-sized spikes and retracements all day on my selections. That was when it was clear to me that I was being dicked around with.
JollyGreen wrote: Getting large enough stakes on is easy especially if they're at the head of the market. I have friends who are owners, pro punters, semi-pro punters and they have no problem getting money on. Admittedly horses price in double figures offer less volume but if the interest is shown then a layer will often step forward.
What I meant to say was, as a percentage of your bank, you can't put as much on punting as you can trading, because there's higher risk punting. So for punting, your returns are smaller.
Iron
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Zenyatta,

Have you watched Mugsgames's videos (at http://www.quiteamug.co.uk/)?

They illustrate that it can be profitable to use the 'cut losses and let profits run' approach.

Jeff
Zenyatta
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Ferru123 wrote:Zenyatta,

Have you watched Mugsgames's videos (at http://www.quiteamug.co.uk/)?

They illustrate that it can be profitable to use the 'cut losses and let profits run' approach.

Jeff
Jeff,

I was over in the UK last year with a 34K bank, and I had a real go at it. I was doing nothing but sitting in Starbucks all day, every day for weeks trying to 'cut losses and let profits run'. I ended up losing 10K - with nothing much to show for it but a caffeine addiction ;)

Price spikes and retracements, combined with 'whip-saw' effects where the price whips in and out very rapidly, always destroyed any profit I made and then some.

Hats off to the traders who can make a success at short-term trading, but my opinion is that this will be beyond the abilities of most people.

Cheers

PS From what mugsgame says, it looks like he's actually adopted a longer-term approach as well; I think he said somewhere that short-term trading was driving him mad, and he couldn't go back to it.
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