General discussion : Trading for newbies - Part 2 Mindset

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JollyGreen
Posts: 1990
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Fri Aug 30, 2013 7:46 pm

steven1976 wrote:JG,
Can you not just seriously offer one tip per week and we all follow?

I want to be your sheep. :D

:lol:
Do you mean a horse to oppose or to trade a move on?

steven1976
Posts: 1743
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am

Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:09 pm

A pre race lay on a horse where you think the price is to low, like you occasionally post up. I always seem to either be away or see your posts too late. I realize you don't have a magic wand but be interesting to see if when jolly talks the markets move. The Nick Leeson of bf! :D I rarely play for a swing trade but I'd be willing to stay in a trade a little longer if I had the slightest idea of a donkey!

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JollyGreen
Posts: 1990
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:20 pm

I will try and do that if possible. I do look at the markets each day but circumstances often dictate I don't have the time to study them fully and then write a post. I am just looking at a race for today but it won't be for a drift.

Zenyatta
Posts: 1058
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:17 am

JollyGreen wrote: Once your position is open you assess constantly and if it goes your way you take as much profit as possible. If it goes wrong then you close out and regroup. Simples!!
If only it were indeed 'simples!!' Jolly, but as me and no doubt hundreds of others have discovered after trying and losing for months on end, it's anything but 'simples!!' ;)

After 3 years of trying, I find that about the only races I can win on trading are big feature races. All the rest are just too hard. It seems I simply don't have the skill to assess when a position has 'gone wrong', and after 3 years of trying and failing, I'm unlikely to ever be able to acquire these skills.

All the low grade races exhibit big price spikes and 'whip-saw' effects, where the price gets pushed in and out by a big number of ticks. As an example, on the last race I traded (which was way back in Dec, '12!), I placed a back bet on something and the price spiked out by an amazing 24 ticks! (Yes, the price literally doubled!). At this point I was simply ignoring this nonsense, and sure enough, soon the price crashed all the way back down by a huge number of ticks. I gave up trading in disgust at that point, because I had lost thousands stopping-out on these price spikes. In Dec, '12 this was happening nearly every day!

Forgive me for saying so, but it certainly looks to me that traders are deliberately batting the price back and forth to generate artificial volatility - in my view, these constant 'whip-saws' and 'price spikes' would make it near impossible for most people to judge whether a position has really 'gone wrong' or not, except for a very few races where everyone can clearly see what's happening (i.e., big feature races).

Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:44 pm

Zenyatta wrote: If only it were indeed 'simples!!' Jolly, but as me and no doubt hundreds of others have discovered after trying and losing for months on end, it's anything but 'simples!!' ;)
Maybe that's because you're over-complicating it. :)

The logic of 'I found it hard, therefore it is hard' doesn't really stack up...

Jeff

Iron
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Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Mon Sep 02, 2013 11:34 pm

Zenyatta

A further thought - did your strategy cause you to lose money, or your lizard brain (http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog ... brain.html)?

Jeff

Zenyatta
Posts: 1058
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Tue Sep 03, 2013 4:06 am

It's the stop-losses that cost me all the money Jeff, if I'd just let all my bets run, I'd be hugely in profit.

It's amazing how perceptions differ. Peter says that trading should be easy and finding value should be hard, but personally, I find just the opposite. I can find value ridiculously easily and win huge amounts punting, but find trading impossible *shrugs*

If you're still losing at this stage Jeff, you may want to consider enlisting the help of automation, or human+automation. It's much better than human alone ;)

I shall hopefully be making my come-back to BetAngel soon, but next time it will be automation only, and I will just be looking for value in the races I know I can win on. No more stop-loss bullshit. And no more trading on stupid low-grade stuff. You may want to consider the same strategy Jeff.

Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Tue Sep 03, 2013 6:31 am

Zenyatta wrote:It's the stop-losses that cost me all the money Jeff, if I'd just let all my bets run, I'd be hugely in profit.
That may be the case with the way you find your selections - I don't know - but, for most people, leaving a trade open as you go further and further into the red is a bad strategy.

If your approach works because you're confident from form analysis that you're entering the market at a value price, then have you considered simply betting or laying outright, rather than trading?

That said, I'm sceptical that anyone can beat the market long-term when it comes to finding value (with the possible exception of a few rare gurus like JollyGreen). You may also fall into that category - I don't know...
Zenyatta wrote:If you're still losing at this stage Jeff, you may want to consider enlisting the help of automation, or human+automation. It's much better than human alone ;)
I'm a big fan of automated trading, and once I am confident that I have a method with a long-term edge and I know exactly what I'm doing, it's something I may consider.
Zenyatta wrote:No more stop-loss bullshit. And no more trading on stupid low-grade stuff.
Many people do very well with cutting their losses (whether with an automated stoploss or some other approach) and with trading on low-grade races, although you need to go with whatever works for you...

Jeff

Zenyatta
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Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Tue Sep 03, 2013 7:04 am

Ferru123 wrote:
If your approach works because you're confident from form analysis that you're entering the market at a value price, then have you considered simply betting or laying outright, rather than trading?
The statistical fluctuations are too frustrating in straight punting...the back bets don't come in often enough (you get long losing runs), and you can't put enough on to get decent returns.


That said, I'm sceptical that anyone can beat the market long-term when it comes to finding value (with the possible exception of a few rare gurus like JollyGreen). You may also fall into that category - I don't know...
I'm confident I could hold my own in tipping contest with Jolly ;)

You're mostly wasting your time trying to predict anything on the low-grade stuff, I agree there (you may as well lay all day there). But some types of races, you can definitely use form to find value: big feature races, or some races where only 1- or 2- horses dominant the book (swing-trade type races).

Many people do very well with cutting their losses (whether with an automated stoploss or some other approach) and with trading on low-grade races, although you need to go with whatever works for you...

Jeff
Nope, I believe you could count on one hand the number of people successful at this type of trading. Price-movement based trading is in general far more complex and difficult than finding value (for me any way).

Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Tue Sep 03, 2013 10:48 am

Zenyatta wrote:you can't put enough on to get decent returns.
Unless you are after Mad Bomber type bet sizes, I would have thought there wouldn't be a problem with getting a large enough bet on.

What stake sizes do you use?
Zenyatta wrote:I'm confident I could hold my own in tipping contest with Jolly ;)
Fighting talk! ;)
Zenyatta wrote: Nope, I believe you could count on one hand the number of people successful at this type of trading.
In that case, I must know them all (which I consider highly unlikely)... :)

It doesn't take a huge leap of imagination to see how such an approach could lead to one profiting from the many massive moves that occur every day.

Jeff

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