It might be a good idea to have the book percentages displayed in the 'Ladder' screen, for ease of reference.
Jeff
Book percentages
If it’s sunny, does this make it a good day?
Jeff, I see your questions on many message boards over several years. You have intrigued me and irritated me. Message boards need people like you.
Your question received no replies, I hope it provoked a lot of thought. I have always put a lot of emphasis on understanding the book %. I can still make a decent daily profit on the basic Betfair interface using only the overround.
I have data on overround that would make your eyes glaze over and I still cannot answer your question because it is not well enough defined.
Learn which factors affect the %.
Most won’t bother to do this. Thankfully.
Jeff, I see your questions on many message boards over several years. You have intrigued me and irritated me. Message boards need people like you.
Your question received no replies, I hope it provoked a lot of thought. I have always put a lot of emphasis on understanding the book %. I can still make a decent daily profit on the basic Betfair interface using only the overround.
I have data on overround that would make your eyes glaze over and I still cannot answer your question because it is not well enough defined.
Learn which factors affect the %.
Most won’t bother to do this. Thankfully.
Depends on your perspective and what other weather conditions there are...Quinny wrote:If it’s sunny, does this make it a good day?
Er, thanks, I think...Quinny wrote:Jeff, I see your questions on many message boards over several years. You have intrigued me and irritated me. Message boards need people like you.
Out of interest, how have I irritated you?
So is the answer to my question: 'It depends on what else is happening in the market'?Quinny wrote: I have data on overround that would make your eyes glaze over and I still cannot answer your question because it is not well enough defined.
Learn which factors affect the %.
Most won’t bother to do this. Thankfully.
Jeff
Start by framing the market you are interested in.
as far as I see it... there isn't a 'The Market'
Are we talking about Aintree Grand National. Very specific market imo. Or, a Barney Curley last leg accumulator market at Kelso on Tues. evening.
Now the book % at SP may be exactly the same, but... during last 3 minutes for example, what were the volumes traded and what was the book make up across the first three in the betting.
Trying to make high probability trades without knowing some basic strategic info (doesn't have to be book % based) is a sure fire route to ruination.
Select a market type and understand it to the point where you could give a five minute seminar about it. Answering open questions from new traders.
as far as I see it... there isn't a 'The Market'
Are we talking about Aintree Grand National. Very specific market imo. Or, a Barney Curley last leg accumulator market at Kelso on Tues. evening.
Now the book % at SP may be exactly the same, but... during last 3 minutes for example, what were the volumes traded and what was the book make up across the first three in the betting.
Trying to make high probability trades without knowing some basic strategic info (doesn't have to be book % based) is a sure fire route to ruination.
Select a market type and understand it to the point where you could give a five minute seminar about it. Answering open questions from new traders.
Not sure where this emphasis on book percentages comes from? Book percentages are the manifestation of the undering odds movements, not the other way around. Since cross matching has come in that's muddied the water significantly.
Hi Peter
It may result partly from Adam Heathcote's blog post on exit points, in which he wrote that a narrowing book percentage means that the trend you're riding may be about to reverse.
Jeff
It may result partly from Adam Heathcote's blog post on exit points, in which he wrote that a narrowing book percentage means that the trend you're riding may be about to reverse.
Jeff
Euler wrote:Not sure where this emphasis on book percentages comes from?
- JollyGreen
- Posts: 2046
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am
Cross matching has definitely changed the way book overrounds behave. I do look at the book percentage but I no longer see it as a trend reversal because other factors must be accounted for.
Just one example. A drifting favourite could see the book close in on 100% and further drifting could potentially mean the book dips below 100%. That could signal the end of of the drift but what if the 2nd favourite or any other runner is being backed off the boards? That would mean the drifting favourite could continue the Kon Tiki impression!!
Just one example. A drifting favourite could see the book close in on 100% and further drifting could potentially mean the book dips below 100%. That could signal the end of of the drift but what if the 2nd favourite or any other runner is being backed off the boards? That would mean the drifting favourite could continue the Kon Tiki impression!!
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- Posts: 309
- Joined: Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:02 am
I don't begin a trade until the book is 99%+. For me it marks a new beginning, a new dawn if you like. Irrespective of what has or is happening in the market, equilibrium has been returned and another round of see-sawing begins. If one runner drifts another will shorten.
rg
rg
So if the cross matching is turned offJollyGreen wrote: ↑Fri Apr 08, 2011 12:42 pmCross matching has definitely changed the way book overrounds behave. I do look at the book percentage but I no longer see it as a trend reversal because other factors must be accounted for.
Just one example. A drifting favourite could see the book close in on 100% and further drifting could potentially mean the book dips below 100%. That could signal the end of of the drift but what if the 2nd favourite or any other runner is being backed off the boards? That would mean the drifting favourite could continue the Kon Tiki impression!!