http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9fo0VuJeZ8
For these cold winter days without any horse racing.
A useful football strategy
Hi LeTiss,LeTiss 4pm wrote:Good video Peter, but what do you do when an early goal blows 2 of your 3 bets out of the window?
Well with an early goal you might just be able to trade out at around scratch or with a small loss depending which team score.
I personally think to get an edge you need to analyse the game beforehand & trade in combination with that view.So the strategy in the video is a way of trading a predicted low score game,but if you predict a high scoring game between equally matched teams maybe you can dutch say 1-1,2-1,1-2.If and when the 1st goal goes in (hopefully in the 1st half) you can start trading out some or all of your bets depending on how brave you are.The only thing I would say is that you need to have a stop loss as we all know how unpredictable it can be (Man U v Leeds).
The other thing of course is that your dutch doesn't have to go in pre-kick off.The 1st 10-15 mins of a game can be very cagey so if in the above example it is still 0-0 after 15 mins you can launch your bets then,at better odds.I think average 1st goal is around 37 mins but varies a bit per division etc.
Anyway just thinking out loud really,food for thought.
Ben
PS For pre-match analyis I use Soccerstats (12 criteria)
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chrishorne
- Posts: 17
- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:29 pm
Hi Ben,
What 12 criteria do you mean?
Thanks Chris
What 12 criteria do you mean?
Thanks Chris
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mister man
- Posts: 363
- Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2010 2:10 pm
no chance of getting out anywhere near even if an early goal is scored, and youve not layed any off yet..if youve bet 0-0 0-1, 1-0...
unless you have dutched higher scores too, if not you now will have lower odds on the higher scores and be trying to make up the cash on the two lost bets, thus increasing your risk.
so potential green can only be as high if potential red is increased, unless of course you want to pray it stays 1-0/0-1 for the next 70 to 80 mins..
unless you have dutched higher scores too, if not you now will have lower odds on the higher scores and be trying to make up the cash on the two lost bets, thus increasing your risk.
so potential green can only be as high if potential red is increased, unless of course you want to pray it stays 1-0/0-1 for the next 70 to 80 mins..
I sampled that last 100 or so matches this morning from our database, 114 to be precise.
11 matches had a first goal time of less than 10 mins or 10% roughly of matches.
If we exclude matches that where we expect more goals to occur we cut our field of opporunity to 60 matches. But in those 60 matches, 95% of them had a goal later than 10 minutes.
11 matches had a first goal time of less than 10 mins or 10% roughly of matches.
If we exclude matches that where we expect more goals to occur we cut our field of opporunity to 60 matches. But in those 60 matches, 95% of them had a goal later than 10 minutes.